Bitcoin (BTC) Price Looks Set to Reclaim $100,000, Nears Historically Low Volatility Levels

The price of Bitcoin looked set to reclaim $100,000 on Friday, rallying on the back of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision to drop the lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase.

Bitcoin (BTC) price appeared to be gearing up for a breakout on Friday, with key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at around $95,340 at the time of writing, having risen over 3% in the past 24 hours. The BTC price rally came as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped the lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase.

However, this momentum shift was halted following the $1.4 billion exploit of the ByBit exchange, which caused the cryptocurrency market to experience a collective loss of over $50 billion in a single day. But with Bitcoin’s price now hovering above $96,000, certain on-chain data suggests that a breakout could still be on the horizon.

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Glassnode explained how two key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels could impact the Bitcoin price and its future trajectory.

The two relevant metrics here are the 1-week “realized volatility” and “options implied volatility.” For context, realized volatility (also referred to as historical volatility) measures how much the price of an asset (BTC, in this case) has changed over a specific period. Implied volatility, on the other hand, is a metric that assesses the likelihood of future changes in an asset’s price.

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility at Historical Lows

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s 1-week realized volatility recently dropped to 23.42%. The on-chain intelligence firm noted that the metric’s current value is close to historical lows, as BTC’s realized volatility has only fallen beneath this level a few times in the past four years.

Interestingly, the 1-week realized volatility hit 22.88% and 21.35% in October 2024 and November 2024, respectively. These points have acted as bottoms, with the metric rebounding from this level in the past. From a historical perspective, such declines in realized volatility have preceded significant price movements, increasing the odds of a potential breakout — or even a correction.

Bitcoin 1-Week Options Implied Volatility Nearing Multi-Year Lows

At the same time, Bitcoin’s 1-week options implied volatility has also experienced a significant decline to 37.39%. The indicator’s current level is close to multi-year lows — last seen in 2023 and early 2024.

Similarly, the Bitcoin price witnessed substantial market moves the last time the implied volatility was around this level. However, it is important to note that the longer-term options implied volatility is currently exhibiting a different trend.

The 3-month implied volatility stands at around 53.1%, while the 6-month indicator is hovering at 56.25%. This suggests that market participants expect increased volatility over the coming months.