比特币（BTC）价格看起来将收回100,000美元，历史上的波动水平很低

比特币的价格看起来将在周五收回100,000美元，在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的后面召集，决定放弃针对加密交易所Coinbase的诉讼。

Bitcoin (BTC) price appeared to be gearing up for a breakout on Friday, with key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels.

比特币（BTC）的价格似乎正准备在周五进行突破，关键的波动率指标在历史上接近水平。

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was trading at around $95,340 at the time of writing, having risen over 3% in the past 24 hours. The BTC price rally came as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped the lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase.

在撰写本文时，全球最大的加密货币的交易约为95,340美元，在过去的24小时内增长了3％以上。 BTC价格集会是随着美国证券交易委员会（SEC）撤销了针对加密交易所Coinbase的诉讼。

However, this momentum shift was halted following the $1.4 billion exploit of the ByBit exchange, which caused the cryptocurrency market to experience a collective loss of over $50 billion in a single day. But with Bitcoin’s price now hovering above $96,000, certain on-chain data suggests that a breakout could still be on the horizon.

但是，在14亿美元的BYBIT Exchange利用14亿美元的利用后，这种势头转移停止了，这导致加密货币市场在一天内遭受了超过500亿美元的集体损失。但是，随着比特币的价格现在徘徊在96,000美元以上，某些链上的数据表明，突破仍可能出现。

In a recent post on the X platform, crypto analytics firm Glassnode explained how two key volatility indicators nearing historically low levels could impact the Bitcoin price and its future trajectory.

在X平台上最近的一篇文章中，加密分析公司GlassNode解释了两个关键的波动率指标如何影响比特币价格及其未来轨迹。

The two relevant metrics here are the 1-week “realized volatility” and “options implied volatility.” For context, realized volatility (also referred to as historical volatility) measures how much the price of an asset (BTC, in this case) has changed over a specific period. Implied volatility, on the other hand, is a metric that assesses the likelihood of future changes in an asset’s price.

这里的两个相关指标是为期1周的“实现波动率”和“选项隐含波动率”。在上下文中，实现的波动率（也称为历史波动率）衡量资产价格（在这种情况下为BTC）在特定时期内发生了多少变化。另一方面，隐含的波动率是评估资产价格将来变化的可能性的指标。

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility at Historical Lows

比特币1周在历史低谷中实现波动

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin’s 1-week realized volatility recently dropped to 23.42%. The on-chain intelligence firm noted that the metric’s current value is close to historical lows, as BTC’s realized volatility has only fallen beneath this level a few times in the past four years.

根据玻璃节数据，比特币的1周实现的波动率最近下降到23.42％。这家链链情报公司指出，该指标的当前价值接近历史低点，因为BTC的实现波动仅在过去四年中几次降至该水平以下。

Interestingly, the 1-week realized volatility hit 22.88% and 21.35% in October 2024 and November 2024, respectively. These points have acted as bottoms, with the metric rebounding from this level in the past. From a historical perspective, such declines in realized volatility have preceded significant price movements, increasing the odds of a potential breakout — or even a correction.

有趣的是，2024年10月和2024年11月的1周意识到的波动率分别达到22.88％和21.35％。这些观点是底部的，过去的指标从这个水平反弹。从历史的角度来看，这种实现的波动性下降之前已经发生了重大的价格变动，增加了潜在的突破的几率，甚至增加了纠正。

Bitcoin 1-Week Options Implied Volatility Nearing Multi-Year Lows

比特币1周的选项暗示着波动率，接近多年低点

At the same time, Bitcoin’s 1-week options implied volatility has also experienced a significant decline to 37.39%. The indicator’s current level is close to multi-year lows — last seen in 2023 and early 2024.

同时，比特币的1周选择暗示波动率也显着下降至37.39％。指标的当前水平接近多年低点 - 最后一次出现在2023年和2024年初。

Similarly, the Bitcoin price witnessed substantial market moves the last time the implied volatility was around this level. However, it is important to note that the longer-term options implied volatility is currently exhibiting a different trend.

同样，比特币价格在最后一次隐含波动率约为此水平时就见证了大量市场的发展。但是，重要的是要注意，长期选择暗示的波动率目前表现出不同的趋势。

The 3-month implied volatility stands at around 53.1%, while the 6-month indicator is hovering at 56.25%. This suggests that market participants expect increased volatility over the coming months.

3个月的隐含波动率约为53.1％，而6个月的指标为56.25％。这表明市场参与者预计未来几个月的波动性会增加。