日本央行（BoJ）升息迫在眉睫，比特幣（BTC）物價面臨潛在阻力

大多數投資者都關注 1 月 20 日川普總統的就職典禮，這有可能成為比特幣 (BTC) 和加密貨幣價格的關鍵催化劑。

Most investors are keeping a close eye on President Trump's inauguration, scheduled for Jan. 20, which could be a pivotal event for bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices.

大多數投資者都在密切關注定於 1 月 20 日舉行的川普總統就職典禮，這可能是比特幣 (BTC) 和加密貨幣價格的關鍵事件。

But a few days later, there's another potential event that could impact markets: a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

但幾天後，還有另一個可能影響市場的潛在事件：日本央行（BoJ）升息。

According to a Bloomberg chart shared by X, the market is currently pricing in a 90% probability of a BoJ rate hike on Jan. 24.

根據 X 分享的彭博圖表，市場目前消化日本央行 1 月 24 日昇息的可能性為 90%。

Previously, a BoJ rate hike triggered turbulence in both traditional and digital asset markets. It was a key factor in the unwinding of the yen carry trade in early August, which caused bitcoin to plummet to $49,000. Traders are likely anticipating another round of selloffs this time.

此前，日本央行升息引發了傳統和數位資產市場的動盪。這是8月初日圓套利交易平倉的關鍵因素，導致比特幣暴跌至49,000美元。交易員可能預計這次將出現另一輪拋售。

The BoJ has maintained negative interest rates since 2016, but in 2024, it raised rates twice, from -0.1% to 0.25%. The implied rate going into the meeting is 0.45%, though this could change drastically as Japan is set to receive an inflation report the day before, on Jan. 23.

日本央行自2016年以來一直維持負利率，但在2024年兩度升息，從-0.1%升至0.25%。會議的隱含利率為 0.45%，不過這可能會發生巨大變化，因為日本將在前一天（即 1 月 23 日）收到通膨報告。

Headline inflation year-over-year currently stands at 2.9%, the highest since August. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could stoke market fears and potentially lead to another round of the yen carry trade unwinding.

目前整體通膨率為 2.9%，為 8 月以來的最高水準。通膨數據高於預期可能引發市場擔憂，並可能導致新一輪日圓套利交易平倉。

Despite the remarkable strength of the DXY index, which is currently above 109, indicating the highest level since November 2022, it has surged from 100 since the September low.

儘管 DXY 指數表現強勁，目前高於 109，創下 2022 年 11 月以來的最高水平，但自 9 月低點以來，該指數已從 100 飆升。

The DXY index is following a similar trajectory to Donald Trump's first presidential term, which saw a rally in the DXY leading into his inauguration and then fell considerably, giving risk assets a much-needed boost. The DXY index measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies.

DXY 指數遵循與唐納德·川普第一個總統任期類似的軌跡，在他就職前，DXY 指數上漲，然後大幅下跌，為風險資產提供了急需的提振。 DXY 指數衡量美元兌一籃子主要外幣的價值。

The Japanese Yen is at its strongest level against the dollar since Dec. 16, at 156.

日圓兌美元匯率達到12月16日以來的最高水平，為156。