隨著網絡活動的下降，比特幣（BTC）價格變動可能是不可持續的

比特幣（BTC）已經看到了重大的價格變動，最近超過了9.8萬美元的商標，但是仔細觀察了基礎網絡活動，這引起了人們的關注

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to experience significant price movements, recently surpassing the $98K mark. However, a closer examination of the underlying network activity raises concerns about Bitcoin’s valuation at these levels.

比特幣（BTC）繼續經歷重大的價格變動，最近超過了98,000美元。但是，對基本網絡活動的仔細檢查引起了人們對比特幣在這些級別上的估值的擔憂。

Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s price surge, several key network fundamentals indicate that the cryptocurrency may be overvalued. Notably, network activity has reached a one-year low, highlighting a concerning disconnect between price and fundamental data. Declining network activity is often a warning sign that the market is losing momentum, even as the price continues to rise.

儘管圍繞比特幣的價格上漲引起了人們的興奮，但幾個關鍵的網絡基本面表明，加密貨幣可能被高估了。值得注意的是，網絡活動已達到一年的低點，突出了有關價格和基本數據之間的斷開連接的。網絡活動的下降通常是一個警告信號，即市場正在失去動力，即使價格繼續上漲。

To evaluate Bitcoin’s value more objectively, we can consider Metcalfe’s law, which suggests that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active users. Applying this principle to Bitcoin indicates that its fair value should range between $48K and $95K, based on the number of active addresses on the network.

為了更客觀地評估比特幣的價值，我們可以考慮Metcalfe的定律，這表明網絡的價值與其活躍用戶的正方形成正比。將此原則應用於比特幣，這表明其公允價值應根據網絡上的活動地址的數量在48k至95k之間。

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at a significant premium to this fair value range, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its current price. The cryptocurrency is priced well above the upper Metcalfe band, suggesting that it may be trading at a speculative premium.

目前，比特幣的交易價格高於此公允價值範圍，這引起了人們對當前價格的可持續性的擔憂。加密貨幣的價格遠高於上梅卡夫樂隊，這表明它可能以投機性的溢價進行交易。

This premium could be influenced by various external factors, such as institutional ETF inflows or broader macroeconomic optimism. However, it also points to a possible overvaluation in the market.

這種溢價可能會受到各種外部因素的影響，例如機構ETF流入或更廣泛的宏觀經濟樂觀。但是，這也指出了市場可能高估。

Bitcoin’s price has remained above the upper Metcalfe band since early 2024, indicating that the current price may not be fully supported by the network’s fundamental metrics.

自2024年初以來，比特幣的價格一直在上梅卡夫樂隊上方，這表明該網絡的基本指標可能無法完全支持當前的價格。

Another key metric for assessing Bitcoin’s valuation is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This ratio currently indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a zone of overvaluation.

評估比特幣估值的另一個關鍵指標是實現價值（MVRV）比率的市場價值。該比率目前表明比特幣可能正在進入高估區域。

Historically, when the MVRV ratio sustains levels above 2.4, it has often preceded periods of market correction. With Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio currently in this zone, there is a growing risk that the market is due for a correction, as the gap between market price and realized value indicates that many investors are sitting on unrealized gains.

從歷史上看，當MVRV比率的水平高於2.4時，它通常在市場校正之前就已經進行了。由於目前在該區域中，比特幣的MVRV比率越來越大，市場的風險越來越高，因為市場價格和實現價值之間的差距表明許多投資者坐在未實現的收益上。

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has maintained a bullish trend but shows signs of exhaustion. The price is currently hovering near the 50-day Moving Average (MA) at around $98,710, and momentum indicators suggest a slowing rate of upward movement.

從技術角度來看，比特幣保持了看漲趨勢，但顯示出疲憊的跡象。目前，價格徘徊在50天移動平均線（MA）的價格約為98,710美元，而動量指標表明，向上移動的速度放緩。

If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $98K mark, it may experience a pullback toward the $95K range, which aligns with the upper Metcalfe valuation band. However, if the bullish momentum picks up, Bitcoin could target the psychological $100K resistance.

如果比特幣無法保持超過$ 9.8K的大關，它可能會遇到$ 95K範圍的回調，這與上層梅特卡爾夫估值樂隊保持一致。但是，如果看漲的勢頭振作起來，比特幣可以針對心理$ 10萬美元的抵抗力。

Overall, Bitcoin’s network activity at a one-year low, combined with price levels exceeding fair value estimates, suggests that the cryptocurrency may be overextended.

總體而言，比特幣的網絡活動以一年的低點，再加上價格水平超過公允價值的估計，這表明加密貨幣可能會過度擴展。

While factors like institutional demand and macroeconomic trends could continue to fuel Bitcoin’s rally, its current price may be difficult to sustain based on on-chain fundamentals.

儘管諸如機構需求和宏觀經濟趨勢之類的因素可能會繼續加劇比特幣的集會，但根據鏈基本面，其目前的價格可能很難維持。

For investors, this raises an important question: will Bitcoin face a short-term correction, or will it continue its long-term growth trajectory?

對於投資者而言，這提出了一個重要的問題：比特幣會面臨短期糾正，還是會繼續其長期增長軌跡？

If Bitcoin fails to maintain momentum at current levels, a correction toward the $95K-$90K range could present a more favorable entry point. Conversely, if network activity improves, the rally could continue, defying fundamental concerns.

如果比特幣無法在當前水平上保持動量，則對$ 95K- $ 90K的範圍進行更正可能會帶來更有利的入口點。相反，如果網絡活動有所改善，則會將繼續進行集會，這無見基本問題。

In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price continues to excite investors, the underlying network data and technical indicators suggest caution. Investors should keep a close eye on key support levels and network activity to gauge whether Bitcoin’s rally is sustainable or headed for a pullback.

總之，儘管比特幣的價格繼續激發投資者，但基本網絡數據和技術指標表明謹慎。投資者應密切關注關鍵支持水平和網絡活動，以衡量比特幣的集會是可持續的還是要回調的。