随着网络活动的下降，比特币（BTC）价格变动可能是不可持续的

比特币（BTC）已经看到了重大的价格变动，最近超过了9.8万美元的商标，但是仔细观察了基础网络活动，这引起了人们的关注

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to experience significant price movements, recently surpassing the $98K mark. However, a closer examination of the underlying network activity raises concerns about Bitcoin’s valuation at these levels.

比特币（BTC）继续经历重大的价格变动，最近超过了98,000美元。但是，对基本网络活动的仔细检查引起了人们对比特币在这些级别上的估值的担忧。

Despite the excitement surrounding Bitcoin’s price surge, several key network fundamentals indicate that the cryptocurrency may be overvalued. Notably, network activity has reached a one-year low, highlighting a concerning disconnect between price and fundamental data. Declining network activity is often a warning sign that the market is losing momentum, even as the price continues to rise.

尽管围绕比特币的价格上涨引起了人们的兴奋，但几个关键的网络基本面表明，加密货币可能被高估了。值得注意的是，网络活动已达到一年的低点，突出了有关价格和基本数据之间的断开连接的。网络活动的下降通常是一个警告信号，即市场正在失去动力，即使价格继续上涨。

To evaluate Bitcoin’s value more objectively, we can consider Metcalfe’s law, which suggests that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active users. Applying this principle to Bitcoin indicates that its fair value should range between $48K and $95K, based on the number of active addresses on the network.

为了更客观地评估比特币的价值，我们可以考虑Metcalfe的定律，这表明网络的价值与其活跃用户的正方形成正比。将此原则应用于比特币，这表明其公允价值应根据网络上的活动地址的数量在48k至95k之间。

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at a significant premium to this fair value range, which raises concerns about the sustainability of its current price. The cryptocurrency is priced well above the upper Metcalfe band, suggesting that it may be trading at a speculative premium.

目前，比特币的交易价格高于此公允价值范围，这引起了人们对当前价格的可持续性的担忧。加密货币的价格远高于上梅卡夫乐队，这表明它可能以投机性的溢价进行交易。

This premium could be influenced by various external factors, such as institutional ETF inflows or broader macroeconomic optimism. However, it also points to a possible overvaluation in the market.

这种溢价可能会受到各种外部因素的影响，例如机构ETF流入或更广泛的宏观经济乐观。但是，这也指出了市场可能高估。

Bitcoin’s price has remained above the upper Metcalfe band since early 2024, indicating that the current price may not be fully supported by the network’s fundamental metrics.

自2024年初以来，比特币的价格一直在上梅卡夫乐队上方，这表明该网络的基本指标可能无法完全支持当前的价格。

Another key metric for assessing Bitcoin’s valuation is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This ratio currently indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a zone of overvaluation.

评估比特币估值的另一个关键指标是实现价值（MVRV）比率的市场价值。该比率目前表明比特币可能正在进入高估区域。

Historically, when the MVRV ratio sustains levels above 2.4, it has often preceded periods of market correction. With Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio currently in this zone, there is a growing risk that the market is due for a correction, as the gap between market price and realized value indicates that many investors are sitting on unrealized gains.

从历史上看，当MVRV比率的水平高于2.4时，它通常在市场校正之前就已经进行了。由于目前在该区域中，比特币的MVRV比率越来越大，市场的风险越来越高，因为市场价格和实现价值之间的差距表明许多投资者坐在未实现的收益上。

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has maintained a bullish trend but shows signs of exhaustion. The price is currently hovering near the 50-day Moving Average (MA) at around $98,710, and momentum indicators suggest a slowing rate of upward movement.

从技术角度来看，比特币保持了看涨趋势，但显示出疲惫的迹象。目前，价格徘徊在50天移动平均线（MA）的价格约为98,710美元，而动量指标表明，向上移动的速度放缓。

If Bitcoin fails to hold above the $98K mark, it may experience a pullback toward the $95K range, which aligns with the upper Metcalfe valuation band. However, if the bullish momentum picks up, Bitcoin could target the psychological $100K resistance.

如果比特币无法保持超过$ 9.8K的大关，它可能会遇到$ 95K范围的回调，这与上层梅特卡尔夫估值乐队保持一致。但是，如果看涨的势头振作起来，比特币可以针对心理$ 10万美元的抵抗力。

Overall, Bitcoin’s network activity at a one-year low, combined with price levels exceeding fair value estimates, suggests that the cryptocurrency may be overextended.

总体而言，比特币的网络活动以一年的低点，再加上价格水平超过公允价值的估计，这表明加密货币可能会过度扩展。

While factors like institutional demand and macroeconomic trends could continue to fuel Bitcoin’s rally, its current price may be difficult to sustain based on on-chain fundamentals.

尽管诸如机构需求和宏观经济趋势之类的因素可能会继续加剧比特币的集会，但根据链基本面，其目前的价格可能很难维持。

For investors, this raises an important question: will Bitcoin face a short-term correction, or will it continue its long-term growth trajectory?

对于投资者而言，这提出了一个重要的问题：比特币会面临短期纠正，还是会继续其长期增长轨迹？

If Bitcoin fails to maintain momentum at current levels, a correction toward the $95K-$90K range could present a more favorable entry point. Conversely, if network activity improves, the rally could continue, defying fundamental concerns.

如果比特币无法在当前水平上保持动量，则对$ 95K- $ 90K的范围进行更正可能会带来更有利的入口点。相反，如果网络活动有所改善，则会将继续进行集会，这无见基本问题。

In conclusion, while Bitcoin’s price continues to excite investors, the underlying network data and technical indicators suggest caution. Investors should keep a close eye on key support levels and network activity to gauge whether Bitcoin’s rally is sustainable or headed for a pullback.

总之，尽管比特币的价格继续激发投资者，但基本网络数据和技术指标表明谨慎。投资者应密切关注关键支持水平和网络活动，以衡量比特币的集会是可持续的还是要回调的。