為什麼ETH在這個市場週期中表現不佳？

幾乎所有以太坊L2項目都發布了自己的代幣，這導致許多以太坊支持者將其資金投入到這些L2代幣中，而不是ETH本身。

The recent performance of ETH in this market cycle has been lackluster, leading many to question whether it will still be able to set new all-time highs this year. This skepticism is understandable given the current low market sentiment, which has even seen ETC outperforming ETH.

ETH在這個市場週期中的最新表現平淡無奇，導致許多人質疑它是否仍然能夠在今年設定新的歷史最高點。鑑於當前的低市場情緒，這種懷疑是可以理解的，即使已經看到的是表現優於ETH。

Of course, I remain a staunch supporter of the Ethereum ecosystem, but in my opinion, ETH's poor performance reflects that the Ethereum ecosystem needs some profound changes.

當然，我仍然是以太坊生態系統的堅定支持者，但是我認為，ETH的績效差反映了以太坊生態系統需要一些深刻的變化。

Next, I will try to answer a key question:

接下來，我將嘗試回答一個關鍵問題：

Why has ETH performed poorly in this cycle?

為什麼ETH在這個週期中表現不佳？

Although the reasons are difficult to pin down, I believe the following points are the main factors.

儘管原因很難確定，但我相信以下幾點是主要因素。

Too many ETH Beta Tokens

太多的eth beta代幣

Almost all Ethereum L2 projects have issued their own tokens, which has led many Ethereum supporters to put their funds into these L2 tokens rather than ETH itself. This significantly reduced the amount of capital flowing into ETH.

幾乎所有以太坊L2項目都發布了自己的代幣，這導致許多以太坊支持者將其資金投入到這些L2代幣中，而不是ETH本身。這大大減少了流入ETH的資本數量。

For example, if you are bullish on Solana (without L2 projects), you only need to buy SOL; but if you are bullish on ETH, you may be faced with dozens of ETH-related token choices, such as tokens of L2 projects.

例如，如果您對Solana看漲（沒有L2項目），則只需購買SOL即可；但是，如果您對ETH看漲，那麼您可能會面臨數十個與ETH相關的令牌選擇，例如L2項目的令牌。

Liquidity dispersion

流動性分散

There are currently more than 100 L2 projects in the Ethereum ecosystem. For skilled DeFi users, crossing from one L2 chain to another is not difficult, but for ordinary investors, the process can be very complicated and headache-inducing.

以太坊生態系統中目前有100多個L2項目。對於熟練的Defi用戶，從一個L2鏈到另一個鏈條並不困難，但是對於普通投資者來說，該過程可能非常複雜且引起頭痛。

Although Ethereum L2 has fast transaction speed and low cost, if the user experience across L2 cannot be improved, this scalability will make it difficult to promote the large-scale adoption of Ethereum.

儘管以太坊L2具有快速的交易速度和低成本，但如果無法改善L2的用戶體驗，則這種可擴展性將使促進以太坊大規模採用變得困難。

Other L1 technology catch-up

其他L1技術追趕

In the last market cycle, Ethereum was undoubtedly the leading L1 blockchain in various indicators.

在最後一個市場週期中，在各種指標中，以太坊無疑是領先的L1區塊鏈。

While Ethereum still has the strongest DeFi ecosystem, other L1s such as Solana have surpassed Ethereum multiple times in metrics such as revenue and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume. This is partly due to their technological progress. Although Ethereum has made some important progress in recent years, some L1 competitors have developed their technology faster and are now able to provide a better user experience (UX).

儘管以太坊仍然具有最強的偏見生態系統，但其他L1（例如Solana）在收入和分散交易（DEX）交易量等指標中多次超過以太坊。這部分是由於他們的技術進步。儘管以太坊近年來取得了重要的進展，但一些L1競爭對手已經更快地開發了技術，現在能夠提供更好的用戶體驗（UX）。

How to make ETH return to its peak?

如何使ETH重返高峰？

Here are some directions worth trying:

這是一些值得嘗試的指示：

Ethereum's L2 projects are encouraged to incorporate ETH into the ecosystem , and by reducing the supply of tokens through a mechanism that burns part of the transaction fees, the scarcity and value of ETH will be increased.

鼓勵以太坊的L2項目將ETH納入生態系統，並通過燃燒部分交易費用的機制減少代幣的供應，將會增加ETH的稀缺性和價值。

Strengthening the core position of ETH in the Ethereum economy ( Vitalik once suggested that more support should be given to decentralized applications (dApps) that use ETH as the main collateral asset)

加強ETH在以太坊經濟中的核心地位（Vitalik曾經建議使用ETH作為主要抵押品資產的分散應用程序（DAPP）提供更多支持）

Allocating more resources to solve the L2 fragmentation problem and unify liquidity should be the top priority for Ethereum's development.

分配更多資源來解決L2分裂問題並統一流動性應該是以太坊發展的首要任務。

Accelerate Ethereum’s technical upgrades ( although Ethereum reduces its token supply by more than $100 million per year through the destruction mechanism, its technical upgrade rate lags significantly behind other L1 blockchains.)

加速以太坊的技術升級（儘管以太坊通過破壞機制將其令牌供應減少了超過1億美元，但其技術升級率落後於其他L1區塊鏈。）

Establish a sustainable revenue model for the Ethereum Foundation. By obtaining stable income from transaction fees or staking income, the Ethereum Foundation can reduce its reliance on selling ETH, thereby avoiding negative impacts on market prices.

為以太坊基金會建立可持續收入模型。通過從交易費用或存放收入中獲得穩定的收入，以太坊基金會可以減少其對出售ETH的依賴，從而避免對市場價格產生負面影響。

Promote the expansion of Ethereum L1. Although Ethereum's long-term goal is to achieve expansion through L2, there is still great potential for L1 performance improvement. By optimizing the expansion capabilities of L1, the overall user experience and competitiveness of Ethereum can be further improved.

促進以太坊L1的擴展。儘管以太坊的長期目標是通過L2實現擴展，但L1性能提高仍然存在很大的潛力。通過優化L1的擴展功能，可以進一步提高以太坊的總體用戶體驗和競爭力。

These measures could be a major step in pushing Ethereum to new heights.

這些措施可能是將以太坊推向新高度的主要步驟。

However, the Ethereum Foundation and its community appear to have fallen into a degree of complacency over the past few years, an attitude that could undermine the project’s competitiveness in the long run.

但是，在過去的幾年中，以太坊基金會及其社區似乎已經陷入了一定程度的自滿情緒，從長遠來看，這種態度可能會破壞該項目的競爭力。

Ethereum remains the leading L1 blockchain, but other L1 projects with motivated and innovative teams may gain the upper hand in the competition if a more aggressive strategy is not adopted.

以太坊仍然是領先的L1區塊鏈，但如果不採用更具侵略性的戰略，其他具有積極進取和創新的團隊的L1項目可能會在競爭中獲得優勢。

Now is the time for the Ethereum community to rekindle its “winner mentality” and secure its leadership in the blockchain space.

現在是以太坊社區重新點燃其“贏家心態”並確保其在區塊鏈領域的領導地位的時候了。

The good news is that we can already see some positive changes, especially from the efforts of Ethereum ecosystem projects, which are trying to improve market confidence in ETH:

好消息是，我們已經可以看到一些積極的變化，尤其是從以太坊生態系統項目的努力開始，這些項目試圖提高市場對ETH的信心：

MegaETH : A high-performance Ethereum L2 is being developed with the goal of supporting over 100,000 transactions per second (TPS) to compete with highly scalable L1 blockchains.

Megaeth：正在開發高性能以太坊L2，目的是支持每秒100,000多個交易（TPS），以與高度可擴展的L1區塊鏈競爭。

Eclipse : Committed to building the first Ethereum L2 powered by the Solana Virtual Machine, aiming to combine Solana's high-speed performance with Ethereum's high security.

Eclipse：致力於建立由Solana虛擬機提供動力的第一個以太坊L2，旨在將Solana的高速性能與以太坊的高安全性相結合。

Pectra Upgrade : Pectra, a major upgrade of Ethereum that is about to be launched, will significantly improve the user experience (UX) by introducing native account abstraction functions, making blockchain interactions simpler and more efficient.

Pectra升級：Pectra是即將推出的以太坊的重大升級，將通過引入本機帳戶抽像功能，從而顯著改善用戶體驗（UX），從而使區塊鏈互動更加簡單，更有效。

Eric Trump ’s promotion : Eric Trump recently publicly supported ETH, which makes people wonder whether it is possible for the United States to establish a national Ethereum reserve?

埃里克·特朗普（Eric Trump）的晉升：埃里克·特朗普（Eric Trump）最近公開支持ETH，這使人們想知道美國是否有可能建立國家以太坊儲備？

The above three technical advances will undoubtedly further promote the adoption rate of Ethereum L

以上三項技術進步無疑將進一步促進以太坊的採用率