由於特朗普的比特幣策略未能點燃新購買，比特幣（BTC）期貨急劇分配合同

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在11月5日美國總統大選中取得勝利的推動力，比特幣（BTC）市場的看漲勢頭已經完全消失。

The bullish momentum in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 U.S. presidential elections, has now fully dissipated. A key market indicator tied to the CME Bitcoin futures has reversed its gains, signaling a shift in sentiment.

唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在11月5日美國總統大選中取得勝利的推動力，比特幣（BTC）市場的看漲勢頭已經完全消失。與CME比特幣期貨相關的關鍵市場指標扭轉了其收益，表明情緒的轉變。

Crucial Indicator Contracts Sharply

關鍵指標籤訂急劇收縮

A crucial indicator, the spread between the “continuous” next-month and front-month standard BTC futures trading on CME, has narrowed considerably. This spread reached a high of $1,705 on December 17 but has since dropped to just $495—the lowest level since November 5—according to data from TradingView.

至關重要的指標是CME上“連續”的下一個月和前月標準BTC期貨交易之間的擴展已大大縮小。這一價差在12月17日達到了1,705美元的最高點，但此後僅下降到495美元，這是自11月5日以來的最低水平，是TradingView的數據。

This sharp contraction suggests that the optimism following Trump’s election has faded, leading to a reassessment of future price expectations from traders, explained Thomas Erdösi, Head of Product at CF Benchmarks.

CF基準產品負責人ThomasErdösi解釋說，這種鮮明的收縮表明，特朗普當選之後的樂觀情緒已經消失，從而重新評估了未來的價格期望。

“The narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures could suggest traders are tempering their price expectations,” Erdösi told CoinDesk.

Erdösi告訴Coindesk：“前月和下一個CME比特幣期貨之間的狹窄蔓延可能表明交易者正在降低其價格期望。”

The market is adjusting to a broader macroeconomic reality rather than the initial belief that a pro-crypto President in the White House would be a significant bullish catalyst.

市場正在適應更廣泛的宏觀經濟現實，而不是最初的信念，即白宮的親克萊托普總統將是一個重要的看漲催化劑。

Market Moves Beyond Trump’s Crypto Narrative

市場超越特朗普的加密敘事

Following Trump’s election, the Bitcoin market surged on the expectation that his administration would be favorable to the digital asset industry. However, this optimism seems to have been fully priced in. Traders and investors are now shifting their focus back to macroeconomic factors. These include inflation expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and the broader risk sentiment in financial markets.

特朗普當選之後，比特幣市場期望他的政府對數字資產行業有利。但是，這種樂觀似乎已經完全定價了。交易者和投資者現在將重點轉移到宏觀經濟因素上。這些包括通貨膨脹期望，地緣政治不確定性以及金融市場中更廣泛的風險情緒。

Erdösi highlighted that the recent drop in futures premiums indicates a market-wide recalibration:

Erdösi強調，最近的期貨保費下降表明，整個市場重新校準：

“What we can see is that the front contract basis has repriced lower substantially since the beginning of March, signaling moderating near-term expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent rally—the election of President Trump—has been fully priced in.”

“我們可以看到的是，自3月初以來，前合同基礎已大大降低，這表明近期預期的是，最近的集會的主要催化劑（特朗普總統的當選）已被完全定價。”

This realignment is evident in broader market trends. Since early February, Bitcoin has declined by nearly 20%, whereas the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:IXIC), home to tech-heavy stocks, has dropped by 8%. The losses stem from a variety of factors. These include Trump’s proposed tariffs, rising geopolitical tensions, and concerns over economic growth and inflation.

在更廣泛的市場趨勢中，這種重組是顯而易見的。自2月初以來，比特幣下降了近20％，而納斯達克綜合指數（納斯達克股票代數：i Toice）是技術繁重的股票的所在地，下降了8％。損失源於多種因素。其中包括特朗普提議的關稅，地緣政治緊張局勢的上升以及對經濟增長和通貨膨脹的擔憂。

Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fails to Ignite Optimism

特朗普的戰略比特幣儲備未能激發樂觀

Another major factor weighing on sentiment is the lack of fresh Bitcoin purchases in Trump’s newly announced strategic digital asset reserve plan. While the announcement initially generated excitement, market participants were disappointed to learn that the plan does not involve new Bitcoin acquisitions.

權衡情感的另一個主要因素是特朗普新宣布的戰略性數字資產儲備計劃中缺乏新鮮的比特幣購買。儘管該公告最初引起了興奮，但市場參與者得知該計劃不涉及新比特幣的收購感到失望。

Last week, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, to be composed of BTC seized in enforcement actions. However, investors had been hoping for a more aggressive stance, such as active Bitcoin purchases to strengthen the reserve.

上週，特朗普簽署了一項行政命令，建立了一個戰略性比特幣儲備，該備用由BTC組成。但是，投資者一直希望採取更具侵略性的立場，例如積極的比特幣購買以加強儲備金。

“The announcement about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not what the market was hoping for. Many expected the Reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead, they stated they would not sell any of their existing Bitcoin or confiscated Bitcoin. While this is a positive move, it caused a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price,” noted Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics.

“關於戰略比特幣儲備的公告並不是市場所希望的。許多人期望該保護區購買新的比特幣，但他們表示，他們不會出售其現有的比特幣或沒收比特幣。儘管這是一個積極的舉動，但它導致比特幣的價格急劇下降。”

The lack of new buying pressure from the U.S. government means that any expected upward momentum from this policy shift failed to materialize. As a result, traders have adjusted their positions, contributing to the contraction in futures premiums.

美國政府缺乏新的購買壓力意味著，這種政策轉變的任何預期勢頭都無法實現。結果，交易者已經調整了自己的頭寸，從而導致了期貨保費的收縮。

Bitcoin Futures Still in Contango, Signaling Stability

比特幣期貨仍在Contango，信號穩定性

Despite the narrowing spread between next-month and front-month CME futures, the overall futures curve remains in contango. In financial markets, contango occurs when longer-dated futures contracts trade at a premium to near-term contracts. This typically reflects expectations of rising prices over time.

儘管下一個月和前月的CME期貨之間的差異變窄，但總體期貨曲線仍在Contango中。在金融市場中，當較長日期的期貨合同以近期合同的溢價交易時，會發生CONTANGO。這通常反映了對價格上漲的期望。

Erdösi pointed out that positive perpetual funding rates and a futures basis still in contango suggest that the recent decline is driven more by unleveraged spot selling rather than a broad market meltdown.

埃爾多西（Erdösi）指出，在孔戈諾（Contango）仍然存在的積極的永久融資率和期貨基礎表明，最近的下降更多是由於未槓桿化的銷售而不是廣泛的市場崩潰所驅動的。

“The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests the recent move is largely driven by unlevered spot longs being squeezed, rather than broader market contagion,” he noted.

他指出：“永恆的融資率保持積極狀態，期貨基礎仍在孔戈諾中，這表明最近的舉動在很大程度上是由未槓桿的景點驅動的，而不是更廣泛的市場傳播。”

This means that, while Bitcoin’s short-term price action appears weak, the overall market structure remains relatively stable. The persistence of contango suggests that traders still anticipate higher prices in the long run, albeit at a more tempered pace than during the post-election euphoria.

這意味著，儘管比特幣的短期價格行動似乎很弱，但總體市場結構仍然相對穩定。 Contango的持久性表明，從長遠來看，交易者仍然預計價格仍然更高，儘管比大選後的欣快速度更為脾氣暴躁。