由于特朗普的比特币策略未能点燃新购买，比特币（BTC）期货急剧分配合同

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在11月5日美国总统大选中取得胜利的推动力，比特币（BTC）市场的看涨势头已经完全消失。

The bullish momentum in the Bitcoin (BTC) market, fueled by Donald Trump’s victory in the November 5 U.S. presidential elections, has now fully dissipated. A key market indicator tied to the CME Bitcoin futures has reversed its gains, signaling a shift in sentiment.

唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）在11月5日美国总统大选中取得胜利的推动力，比特币（BTC）市场的看涨势头已经完全消失。与CME比特币期货相关的关键市场指标扭转了其收益，表明情绪的转变。

Crucial Indicator Contracts Sharply

关键指标签订急剧收缩

A crucial indicator, the spread between the “continuous” next-month and front-month standard BTC futures trading on CME, has narrowed considerably. This spread reached a high of $1,705 on December 17 but has since dropped to just $495—the lowest level since November 5—according to data from TradingView.

至关重要的指标是CME上“连续”的下一个月和前月标准BTC期货交易之间的扩展已大大缩小。这一价差在12月17日达到了1,705美元的最高点，但此后仅下降到495美元，这是自11月5日以来的最低水平，是TradingView的数据。

This sharp contraction suggests that the optimism following Trump’s election has faded, leading to a reassessment of future price expectations from traders, explained Thomas Erdösi, Head of Product at CF Benchmarks.

CF基准产品负责人ThomasErdösi解释说，这种鲜明的收缩表明，特朗普当选之后的乐观情绪已经消失，从而重新评估了未来的价格期望。

“The narrowing spread between front-month and next-month CME Bitcoin futures could suggest traders are tempering their price expectations,” Erdösi told CoinDesk.

Erdösi告诉Coindesk：“前月和下一个CME比特币期货之间的狭窄蔓延可能表明交易者正在降低其价格期望。”

The market is adjusting to a broader macroeconomic reality rather than the initial belief that a pro-crypto President in the White House would be a significant bullish catalyst.

市场正在适应更广泛的宏观经济现实，而不是最初的信念，即白宫的亲克莱托普总统将是一个重要的看涨催化剂。

Market Moves Beyond Trump’s Crypto Narrative

市场超越特朗普的加密叙事

Following Trump’s election, the Bitcoin market surged on the expectation that his administration would be favorable to the digital asset industry. However, this optimism seems to have been fully priced in. Traders and investors are now shifting their focus back to macroeconomic factors. These include inflation expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and the broader risk sentiment in financial markets.

特朗普当选之后，比特币市场期望他的政府对数字资产行业有利。但是，这种乐观似乎已经完全定价了。交易者和投资者现在将重点转移到宏观经济因素上。这些包括通货膨胀期望，地缘政治不确定性以及金融市场中更广泛的风险情绪。

Erdösi highlighted that the recent drop in futures premiums indicates a market-wide recalibration:

Erdösi强调，最近的期货保费下降表明，整个市场重新校准：

“What we can see is that the front contract basis has repriced lower substantially since the beginning of March, signaling moderating near-term expectations that the primary catalyst for the recent rally—the election of President Trump—has been fully priced in.”

“我们可以看到的是，自3月初以来，前合同基础已大大降低，这表明近期预期的是，最近的集会的主要催化剂（特朗普总统的当选）已被完全定价。”

This realignment is evident in broader market trends. Since early February, Bitcoin has declined by nearly 20%, whereas the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:IXIC), home to tech-heavy stocks, has dropped by 8%. The losses stem from a variety of factors. These include Trump’s proposed tariffs, rising geopolitical tensions, and concerns over economic growth and inflation.

在更广泛的市场趋势中，这种重组是显而易见的。自2月初以来，比特币下降了近20％，而纳斯达克综合指数（纳斯达克股票代数：i Toice）是技术繁重的股票的所在地，下降了8％。损失源于多种因素。其中包括特朗普提议的关税，地缘政治紧张局势的上升以及对经济增长和通货膨胀的担忧。

Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fails to Ignite Optimism

特朗普的战略比特币储备未能激发乐观

Another major factor weighing on sentiment is the lack of fresh Bitcoin purchases in Trump’s newly announced strategic digital asset reserve plan. While the announcement initially generated excitement, market participants were disappointed to learn that the plan does not involve new Bitcoin acquisitions.

权衡情感的另一个主要因素是特朗普新宣布的战略性数字资产储备计划中缺乏新鲜的比特币购买。尽管该公告最初引起了兴奋，但市场参与者得知该计划不涉及新比特币的收购感到失望。

Last week, Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, to be composed of BTC seized in enforcement actions. However, investors had been hoping for a more aggressive stance, such as active Bitcoin purchases to strengthen the reserve.

上周，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，建立了一个战略性比特币储备，该备用由BTC组成。但是，投资者一直希望采取更具侵略性的立场，例如积极的比特币购买以加强储备金。

“The announcement about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is not what the market was hoping for. Many expected the Reserve to buy new Bitcoin, but instead, they stated they would not sell any of their existing Bitcoin or confiscated Bitcoin. While this is a positive move, it caused a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price,” noted Ian Balina, founder and CEO of Token Metrics.

“关于战略比特币储备的公告并不是市场所希望的。许多人期望该保护区购买新的比特币，但他们表示，他们不会出售其现有的比特币或没收比特币。尽管这是一个积极的举动，但它导致比特币的价格急剧下降。”

The lack of new buying pressure from the U.S. government means that any expected upward momentum from this policy shift failed to materialize. As a result, traders have adjusted their positions, contributing to the contraction in futures premiums.

美国政府缺乏新的购买压力意味着，这种政策转变的任何预期势头都无法实现。结果，交易者已经调整了自己的头寸，从而导致了期货保费的收缩。

Bitcoin Futures Still in Contango, Signaling Stability

比特币期货仍在Contango，信号稳定性

Despite the narrowing spread between next-month and front-month CME futures, the overall futures curve remains in contango. In financial markets, contango occurs when longer-dated futures contracts trade at a premium to near-term contracts. This typically reflects expectations of rising prices over time.

尽管下一个月和前月的CME期货之间的差异变窄，但总体期货曲线仍在Contango中。在金融市场中，当较长日期的期货合同以近期合同的溢价交易时，会发生CONTANGO。这通常反映了对价格上涨的期望。

Erdösi pointed out that positive perpetual funding rates and a futures basis still in contango suggest that the recent decline is driven more by unleveraged spot selling rather than a broad market meltdown.

埃尔多西（Erdösi）指出，在孔戈诺（Contango）仍然存在的积极的永久融资率和期货基础表明，最近的下降更多是由于未杠杆化的销售而不是广泛的市场崩溃所驱动的。

“The fact that perpetual funding rates remain positive and the futures basis is still in contango suggests the recent move is largely driven by unlevered spot longs being squeezed, rather than broader market contagion,” he noted.

他指出：“永恒的融资率保持积极状态，期货基础仍在孔戈诺中，这表明最近的举动在很大程度上是由未杠杆的景点驱动的，而不是更广泛的市场传播。”

This means that, while Bitcoin’s short-term price action appears weak, the overall market structure remains relatively stable. The persistence of contango suggests that traders still anticipate higher prices in the long run, albeit at a more tempered pace than during the post-election euphoria.

这意味着，尽管比特币的短期价格行动似乎很弱，但总体市场结构仍然相对稳定。 Contango的持久性表明，从长远来看，交易者仍然预计价格仍然更高，尽管比大选后的欣快速度更为脾气暴躁。