根據隱秘首席執行官Ki Young Ju的說法，比特幣（BTC）公牛週期可能已經結束

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju表示，許多交易者預計將繼續的比特幣牛週期可能已經結束。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju claims that the Bitcoin bull cycle, which many traders anticipated to continue, might already be over.

CryptoQuant首席執行官Ki Young Ju聲稱，許多交易者預計將繼續的比特幣牛週期已經結束。

As traditional retail investor activity isn’t visible on on-chain liquidity signals, we can assume that the market is entering a new correction phase, Ju stated in a recent X post, formerly Twitter.

由於在鏈上流動性信號上不可見傳統的散戶投資者活動，因此我們可以假設市場正在進入新的更正階段，JU在最近的X帖子中表示，以前是Twitter。

This is because many retail investors are entering the crypto market trend through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than direct on-chain transactions. This keeps the realized cap lower and makes it difficult to track new liquidity inflows.

這是因為許多零售投資者通過交易所交易基金（ETF）而不是直接的鏈交易進入加密市場趨勢。這使已實現的帽子保持較低，因此很難跟踪新的流動性流入。

According to Ju, 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors. This trend, which was first observed by Binance analysts in late 2024, shows that many investors prefer regulated funds over direct crypto holdings.

根據JU的數據，80％的比特幣ETF流來自零售投資者。這種趨勢是由Binance分析師在2024年底首次觀察到的，該趨勢表明，許多投資者更喜歡受監管的資金而不是直接加密貨幣。

The shift to ETFs suggests that retail participation is already happening, but it doesn’t reflect on traditional on-chain liquidity signals.

向ETF的轉變表明，零售參與已經在發生，但並沒有反映傳統的鏈上流動性信號。

CryptoQuant CEO’s Bearish Market Outlook

加密首席執行官的看跌市場前景

Ju recently posted on X, stating that every on-chain liquidity signal suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a bear market. He claims that Bitcoin could experience a prolonged market correction phase, lasting between 6 to 12 months.

JU最近發佈在X上，指出每個鏈上流動性信號都表明比特幣（BTC）正在進入熊市。他聲稱比特幣可能會經歷長時間的市場校正階段，持續6到12個月。

"Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs = the paper Bitcoin layer, which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly into BTC."

“讓我回應一些反駁：1/零售尚未基於鏈指標進入市場。零售很可能是通過ETFS =紙比特幣層進入，該紙比特幣層沒有出現在鏈上。這使已實現的帽子比直接流入BTC的基金要低。”

Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs = the paper Bitcoin layer, which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly into BTC. 2/ BTC miners are exiting the market. Yes, but they've been in a bull market for 18 months. It's natural for some to take profits after a long bull cycle. We'll see if the new miners can sustain the market in the bear. 3/ We're approaching the halving. True, but it's not necessarily a bullish factor. Past halvings limited the supply of new Bitcoins to the economy, but their temporary effect generally induces price volatility. Some see it as an opportunity to buy, while others are concerned that rising mining costs will increase selling pressure from miners. I'll be focusing more on liquidity signals to determine the market trend. We might be entering a bearish market for 6 to 12 months. Ju said.

讓我回應一些反駁：1/零售尚未根據鏈量指標進入市場。零售可能是通過ETFS =紙比特幣層進入，該紙張不會出現在鏈上。這使已實現的蓋子低於直接流入BTC的情況下。 2/ BTC礦工正在退出市場。是的，但是他們已經在牛市上了18個月。在長期牛週期後，有些人自然而然地獲利。我們將看看新礦工是否可以維持熊的市場。 3/我們正在減半。是的，但這不一定是看漲因素。過去的過點將新比特幣的供應限制在經濟中，但它們的暫時效果通常會引起價格波動。有些人認為這是購買的機會，而另一些人則擔心採礦成本上升會增加礦工的銷售壓力。我將更多地關注流動性信號，以確定市場趨勢。我們可能會進入看跌市場6到12個月。朱說。

Ju used principal component analysis (PCA) to examine fundamental indicators such as market value to realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), all of which are declining.

JU使用主要組件分析（PCA）來檢查基本指標，例如實現價值的市場價值（MVRV），支​​出的產出利潤率（SOPR）和未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL），所有這些指標都在下降。

This forecast does not imply a short-term crash but a bearish market for a prolonged period. Bitcoin’s price fell 0.35% over 24 hours recently, staying around $83,000 after temporarily reaching $84,500. The drop is consistent with mounting selling pressure from short-term traders and institutional investors who booked profits at recent highs.

這一預測並不意味著短期崩潰，而是一個長時間的看跌市場。比特幣的價格在24小時內下跌了0.35％，暫時達到84,500美元後，價格約為83,000美元。下降與短期貿易商和機構投資者的銷售壓力不斷增加，他們在最近的高點預訂了利潤。

After the recent price surge, major institutions like Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and AnChain Tokens, Inc. (ATI) are exiting their Bitcoin positions, contributing to the selloff.

在最近的價格飆升之後，諸如Cathie Wood的ARK Invest and Hanch tokens，Inc。（ATI）之類的主要機構正在退出其比特幣頭寸，從而有助於拋售。

Financial analyst Peter Schiff claims that the movement of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the NASDAQ. If the market keeps falling, he foresees Bitcoin crashing by as much as 24%, possibly to $65,000. In Schiff’s view, in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin may go as low as $20,000 if the market correction phase intensifies.

財務分析師彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）聲稱，比特幣的運動與納斯達克高度相關。如果市場不斷下降，他預計比特幣將崩潰多達24％，可能會達到65,000美元。在席夫（Schiff）看來，在最壞的情況下，如果市場校正階段加劇，比特幣可能會低至20,000美元。

However, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone remains optimistic, suggesting that the crypto market trend is overheating while gold prices rise. According to McGlone, we can expect to see more pain in the market, which can drive Bitcoin as low as $10,000 if economic conditions worsen.

但是，彭博分析師邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）仍然樂觀，這表明加密貨幣市場的趨勢正在過熱，而黃金價格上漲。根據麥格隆的說法，我們可以期望市場上會有更多的痛苦，如果經濟狀況惡化，則可以使比特幣低至10,000美元。

On the other hand, other experts argue that Bitcoin can stabilize if institutional investors increase holdings through Bitcoin ETF purchases, providing the market with much-needed liquidity.

另一方面，其他專家認為，如果機構投資者通過購買比特幣ETF增加持股，比特幣可以穩定，從而為市場提供了急需的流動性。