根据隐秘首席执行官Ki Young Ju的说法，比特币（BTC）公牛周期可能已经结束

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju表示，许多交易者预计将继续的比特币牛周期可能已经结束。

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju claims that the Bitcoin bull cycle, which many traders anticipated to continue, might already be over.

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju声称，许多交易者预计将继续的比特币牛周期已经结束。

As traditional retail investor activity isn’t visible on on-chain liquidity signals, we can assume that the market is entering a new correction phase, Ju stated in a recent X post, formerly Twitter.

由于在链上流动性信号上不可见传统的散户投资者活动，因此我们可以假设市场正在进入新的更正阶段，JU在最近的X帖子中表示，以前是Twitter。

This is because many retail investors are entering the crypto market trend through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than direct on-chain transactions. This keeps the realized cap lower and makes it difficult to track new liquidity inflows.

这是因为许多零售投资者通过交易所交易基金（ETF）而不是直接的链交易进入加密市场趋势。这使已实现的帽子保持较低，因此很难跟踪新的流动性流入。

According to Ju, 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors. This trend, which was first observed by Binance analysts in late 2024, shows that many investors prefer regulated funds over direct crypto holdings.

根据JU的数据，80％的比特币ETF流来自零售投资者。这种趋势是由Binance分析师在2024年底首次观察到的，该趋势表明，许多投资者更喜欢受监管的资金而不是直接加密货币。

The shift to ETFs suggests that retail participation is already happening, but it doesn’t reflect on traditional on-chain liquidity signals.

向ETF的转变表明，零售参与已经在发生，但并没有反映传统的链上流动性信号。

CryptoQuant CEO’s Bearish Market Outlook

加密首席执行官的看跌市场前景

Ju recently posted on X, stating that every on-chain liquidity signal suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a bear market. He claims that Bitcoin could experience a prolonged market correction phase, lasting between 6 to 12 months.

JU最近发布在X上，指出每个链上流动性信号都表明比特币（BTC）正在进入熊市。他声称比特币可能会经历长时间的市场校正阶段，持续6到12个月。

"Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs = the paper Bitcoin layer, which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly into BTC."

“让我回应一些反驳：1/零售尚未基于链指标进入市场。零售很可能是通过ETFS =纸比特币层进入，该纸比特币层没有出现在链上。这使已实现的帽子比直接流入BTC的基金要低。”

Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs = the paper Bitcoin layer, which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly into BTC. 2/ BTC miners are exiting the market. Yes, but they've been in a bull market for 18 months. It's natural for some to take profits after a long bull cycle. We'll see if the new miners can sustain the market in the bear. 3/ We're approaching the halving. True, but it's not necessarily a bullish factor. Past halvings limited the supply of new Bitcoins to the economy, but their temporary effect generally induces price volatility. Some see it as an opportunity to buy, while others are concerned that rising mining costs will increase selling pressure from miners. I'll be focusing more on liquidity signals to determine the market trend. We might be entering a bearish market for 6 to 12 months. Ju said.

让我回应一些反驳：1/零售尚未根据链量指标进入市场。零售可能是通过ETFS =纸比特币层进入，该纸张不会出现在链上。这使已实现的盖子低于直接流入BTC的情况下。 2/ BTC矿工正在退出市场。是的，但是他们已经在牛市上了18个月。在长期牛周期后，有些人自然而然地获利。我们将看看新矿工是否可以维持熊的市场。 3/我们正在减半。是的，但这不一定是看涨因素。过去的过点将新比特币的供应限制在经济中，但它们的暂时效果通常会引起价格波动。有些人认为这是购买的机会，而另一些人则担心采矿成本上升会增加矿工的销售压力。我将更多地关注流动性信号，以确定市场趋势。我们可能会进入看跌市场6到12个月。朱说。

Ju used principal component analysis (PCA) to examine fundamental indicators such as market value to realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), all of which are declining.

JU使用主要组件分析（PCA）来检查基本指标，例如实现价值的市场价值（MVRV），支​​出的产出利润率（SOPR）和未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL），所有这些指标都在下降。

This forecast does not imply a short-term crash but a bearish market for a prolonged period. Bitcoin’s price fell 0.35% over 24 hours recently, staying around $83,000 after temporarily reaching $84,500. The drop is consistent with mounting selling pressure from short-term traders and institutional investors who booked profits at recent highs.

这一预测并不意味着短期崩溃，而是一个长时间的看跌市场。比特币的价格在24小时内下跌了0.35％，暂时达到84,500美元后，价格约为83,000美元。下降与短期贸易商和机构投资者的销售压力不断增加，他们在最近的高点预订了利润。

After the recent price surge, major institutions like Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and AnChain Tokens, Inc. (ATI) are exiting their Bitcoin positions, contributing to the selloff.

在最近的价格飙升之后，诸如Cathie Wood的ARK Invest and Hanch tokens，Inc。（ATI）之类的主要机构正在退出其比特币头寸，从而有助于抛售。

Financial analyst Peter Schiff claims that the movement of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the NASDAQ. If the market keeps falling, he foresees Bitcoin crashing by as much as 24%, possibly to $65,000. In Schiff’s view, in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin may go as low as $20,000 if the market correction phase intensifies.

财务分析师彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）声称，比特币的运动与纳斯达克高度相关。如果市场不断下降，他预计比特币将崩溃多达24％，可能会达到65,000美元。在席夫（Schiff）看来，在最坏的情况下，如果市场校正阶段加剧，比特币可能会低至20,000美元。

However, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone remains optimistic, suggesting that the crypto market trend is overheating while gold prices rise. According to McGlone, we can expect to see more pain in the market, which can drive Bitcoin as low as $10,000 if economic conditions worsen.

但是，彭博分析师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）仍然乐观，这表明加密货币市场的趋势正在过热，而黄金价格上涨。根据麦格隆的说法，我们可以期望市场上会有更多的痛苦，如果经济状况恶化，则可以使比特币低至10,000美元。

On the other hand, other experts argue that Bitcoin can stabilize if institutional investors increase holdings through Bitcoin ETF purchases, providing the market with much-needed liquidity.

另一方面，其他专家认为，如果机构投资者通过购买比特币ETF增加持股，比特币可以稳定，从而为市场提供了急需的流动性。