Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Cycle Might Be Over, According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju

The Bitcoin bull cycle that many traders expected to continue might already be over, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju claims that the Bitcoin bull cycle, which many traders anticipated to continue, might already be over.

As traditional retail investor activity isn’t visible on on-chain liquidity signals, we can assume that the market is entering a new correction phase, Ju stated in a recent X post, formerly Twitter.

This is because many retail investors are entering the crypto market trend through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than direct on-chain transactions. This keeps the realized cap lower and makes it difficult to track new liquidity inflows.

According to Ju, 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors. This trend, which was first observed by Binance analysts in late 2024, shows that many investors prefer regulated funds over direct crypto holdings.

The shift to ETFs suggests that retail participation is already happening, but it doesn’t reflect on traditional on-chain liquidity signals.

CryptoQuant CEO’s Bearish Market Outlook

Ju recently posted on X, stating that every on-chain liquidity signal suggests Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a bear market. He claims that Bitcoin could experience a prolonged market correction phase, lasting between 6 to 12 months.

"Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs = the paper Bitcoin layer, which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly into BTC."

Let me respond to a few counterarguments: 1/ Retail hasn't entered the market yet based on on-chain metrics. Retail is likely entering through ETFs = the paper Bitcoin layer, which doesn’t show up on-chain. This keeps the realized cap lower than if the funds were flowing directly into BTC. 2/ BTC miners are exiting the market. Yes, but they've been in a bull market for 18 months. It's natural for some to take profits after a long bull cycle. We'll see if the new miners can sustain the market in the bear. 3/ We're approaching the halving. True, but it's not necessarily a bullish factor. Past halvings limited the supply of new Bitcoins to the economy, but their temporary effect generally induces price volatility. Some see it as an opportunity to buy, while others are concerned that rising mining costs will increase selling pressure from miners. I'll be focusing more on liquidity signals to determine the market trend. We might be entering a bearish market for 6 to 12 months. Ju said.

Ju used principal component analysis (PCA) to examine fundamental indicators such as market value to realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), all of which are declining.

This forecast does not imply a short-term crash but a bearish market for a prolonged period. Bitcoin’s price fell 0.35% over 24 hours recently, staying around $83,000 after temporarily reaching $84,500. The drop is consistent with mounting selling pressure from short-term traders and institutional investors who booked profits at recent highs.

After the recent price surge, major institutions like Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest and AnChain Tokens, Inc. (ATI) are exiting their Bitcoin positions, contributing to the selloff.

Financial analyst Peter Schiff claims that the movement of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the NASDAQ. If the market keeps falling, he foresees Bitcoin crashing by as much as 24%, possibly to $65,000. In Schiff’s view, in the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin may go as low as $20,000 if the market correction phase intensifies.

However, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone remains optimistic, suggesting that the crypto market trend is overheating while gold prices rise. According to McGlone, we can expect to see more pain in the market, which can drive Bitcoin as low as $10,000 if economic conditions worsen.

On the other hand, other experts argue that Bitcoin can stabilize if institutional investors increase holdings through Bitcoin ETF purchases, providing the market with much-needed liquidity.