行為經濟學：理性的極限

行為經濟學是一門研究影響經濟決策的心理偏差的新學科。本文探討了行為經濟學的關鍵概念及其對投資者的影響。

**Nobel Prize in Economics: Behavioral Economics and Its Impact on Investing**

**諾貝爾經濟學獎：行為經濟學及其對投資的影響**

The Nobel Prize in Economics, officially known as the Prize in Economic Sciences, was established by the Swedish central bank in 1968 to complement the five original Nobel Prizes. It is awarded annually to individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the field of economic science.

諾貝爾經濟學獎，正式名稱為經濟科學獎，由瑞典中央銀行於1968年設立，以補充原有的五個諾貝爾獎。該獎項每年頒發給在經濟科學領域有傑出貢獻的個人。

One notable recipient of this prestigious award is Richard H. Thaler, who was honored in 2017 for his pioneering work in behavioral economics. Thaler's research has had a profound impact on our understanding of how psychological factors influence economic decision-making, highlighting the limitations of traditional economic models that assume perfectly rational agents.

理查德·H·泰勒 (Richard H. Thaler) 是這項享有盛譽的獎項的著名獲獎者，他於 2017 年因其在行為經濟學領域的開創性工作而獲獎。塞勒的研究對我們對心理因素如何影響經濟決策的理解產生了深遠的影響，強調了假設完全理性主體的傳統經濟模型的局限性。

Thaler's contributions to behavioral economics have not only advanced the theoretical underpinnings of the field but have also influenced practical applications, including in the realm of investing. Here's how behavioral economics and Thaler's insights can help investors navigate the markets more effectively:

塞勒對行為經濟學的貢獻不僅推進了該領域的理論基礎，也影響了實際應用，包括在投資領域。以下是行為經濟學和泰勒的見解如何幫助投資者更有效地駕馭市場：

**Loss Aversion and Price Crashes:**

**損失厭惡和價格暴跌：**

Behavioral economics demonstrates that investors are naturally more sensitive to losses than gains, a phenomenon known as loss aversion. This tendency can lead investors to be hesitant to buy stocks that have recently crashed, despite evidence suggesting that "loser" stocks tend to offer superior returns compared to "winner" stocks over the long term.

行為經濟學表明，投資者天生對損失比收益更敏感，這種現象稱為損失厭惡。這種趨勢可能會導致投資者在購買最近暴跌的股票時猶豫不決，儘管有證據表明，從長遠來看，「失敗」股票往往比「獲勝」股票提供更高的回報。

**Time Preference and Recent News:**

**時間偏好與最新新聞：**

Investors often exhibit a strong preference for recent information, known as recency bias, which can lead to mistakes in the investment process. They may overweight less relevant recent news and undervalue more important data points simply because they are older. This bias can contribute to both market bubbles and crises, exacerbating price fluctuations beyond what fundamentals alone would dictate.

投資者通常對近期資訊表現出強烈的偏好，稱為新近度偏差，這可能會導致投資過程中的錯誤。他們可能會高估近期不太相關的新聞，而低估更重要的數據點，只是因為它們較舊。這種偏見可能會導致市場泡沫和危機，加劇價格波動，超越基本面本身所能決定的範圍。

**Herd Behaviors and Social Creatures:**

**群體行為與社會生物：**

Humans are inherently social creatures, and this instinct manifests in the realm of investing as well. Investors often behave like a herd, following the same trends because "everyone else is doing it." While this behavior may not always be rational, it serves to maintain social consensus and stability. However, for investors, it can lead to unthinking bubble chasing or panic selling en masse.

人類本質上是社會性動物，這種本能也體現在投資領域。投資者的行為常常像羊群一樣，追隨相同的趨勢，因為「其他人都在這樣做」。雖然這種行為並不總是理性的，但它有助於維護社會共識和穩定。然而，對於投資者來說，這可能會導致不加思考的泡沫追逐或大規模恐慌性拋售。

**Overconfidence and Skill Perception:**

**過度自信與技能感知：**

Another implication of behavioral economics, though not directly investigated by Thaler, is the tendency to overestimate our own skills and knowledge. For instance, traders and investors may exaggerate the role their abilities play in successful investments, leading to overconfidence and difficulty adhering to low-risk investment practices, despite their overall better performance over the long term.

行為經濟學的另一個意義（儘管塞勒沒有直接研究）是高估我們自己的技能和知識的傾向。例如，交易者和投資者可能會誇大他們的能力在成功投資中所發揮的作用，導致過度自信和難以堅持低風險投資實踐，儘管他們的長期整體表現較好。

By understanding and accounting for these psychological biases, investors can make more informed decisions and improve their investment strategies. Some tips to mitigate the impact of behavioral biases include:

透過理解和解釋這些心理偏差，投資者可以做出更明智的決策並改善他們的投資策略。減輕行為偏見影響的一些技巧包括：

* **Investing for the Long Term:** Focus on long-term goals and avoid making hasty decisions based on short-term market fluctuations or emotions.

* **長期投資：** 專注於長期目標，避免根據短期市場波動或情緒做出倉促決策。

* **Diversifying Portfolios:** Spread investments across different asset classes, industries, and companies to reduce risk and enhance stability.

* **多元化投資組合：** 將投資分散到不同的資產類別、行業和公司，以降低風險並增強穩定性。

* **Dollar-Cost Averaging:** Invest a fixed amount regularly, regardless of market conditions, to minimize the impact of price timing errors.

* **平均成本法：** 無論市場狀況如何，定期投資固定金額，以盡量減少價格時機錯誤的影響。

* **Setting Realistic Expectations:** Avoid chasing unrealistic returns or expecting to outsmart the market consistently. Aim for reasonable gains that align with long-term economic growth.

* **設定切合實際的期望：** 避免追逐不切實際的回報或期望始終勝過市場。追求與長期經濟成長一致的合理收益。

* **Seeking Professional Advice:** If needed, consult a financial advisor who can provide personalized guidance and help navigate the complexities of investing.

* **尋求專業建議：** 如果需要，請諮詢財務顧問，他們可以提供個人指導並幫助解決投資的複雜性。

In addition to these strategies, investors can also consider integrating behavioral economics into their investment processes by adopting passive investing techniques. These methods aim to remove the inherent irrational behaviors from the equation, as we discussed earlier.

除了這些策略之外，投資人還可以考慮採用被動投資技術，將行為經濟學融入他們的投資過程中。正如我們之前討論的，這些方法旨在從方程中消除固有的非理性行為。

By investing regularly in "the market" as a whole, such as through index funds or ETFs, investors relinquish a lot of (bad) decision-making abilities to the crowd. This approach can help achieve solid long-term returns without the need for stock picking or advanced investment knowledge.

透過定期對整個「市場」進行投資（例如透過指數基金或 ETF），投資者將許多（糟糕的）決策能力交給了大眾。這種方法可以幫助實現穩定的長期回報，而無需選股或先進的投資知識。

The rise of behavioral economics in academic circles has also contributed to a greater acceptance of passive investment strategies, as removing decision-making also removes biases. This has made the idea of investing in the stock market more appealing to many people, especially those who may not have the time, interest, or expertise to engage in active investing.

行為經濟學在學術界的興起也促進了人們對被動投資策略的更多接受，因為消除決策也消除了偏見。這使得投資股票市場的想法對許多人更有吸引力，尤其是那些可能沒有時間、興趣或專業知識進行主動投資的人。

Companies that embrace and cater to this trend, such as those involved in creating ETFs, stand to benefit from the growing demand for passive investing solutions. Here are two examples of companies excelling in this space:

擁抱並迎合這一趨勢的公司，例如參與創建 ETF 的公司，將從對被動投資解決方案不斷增長的需求中受益。以下是在該領域表現出色的公司的兩個範例：

**1. BlackRock (BLK)**

**1.貝萊德 (BLK)**

BlackRock is a global investment management, advisory, and technology firm that offers a wide range of financial products and services to institutions and individuals worldwide. It is the world's largest asset manager, with over $9.1 trillion in assets under management as of December 2023.

貝萊德是一家全球投資管理、顧問和科技公司，為全球機構和個人提供廣泛的金融產品和服務。它是全球最大的資產管理公司，截至 2023 年 12 月管理的資產超過 9.1 兆美元。

The company's vast lineup includes iShares ETFs, which are among the most popular and heavily traded ETFs globally. BlackRock also provides mutual funds, closed-end funds, separate accounts, collective investment trusts, and government securities, among other offerings.

該公司龐大的產品陣容包括 iShares ETF，它們是全球最受歡迎和交易量最大的 ETF 之一。貝萊德也提供共同基金、封閉式基金、獨立帳戶、集合投資信託和政府證券等產品。

BlackRock's massive scale and diverse portfolio of investment vehicles, combined with

貝萊德規模龐大且多樣化的投資工具組合，結合