行为经济学：理性的极限

行为经济学是一门研究影响经济决策的心理偏差的新学科。本文探讨了行为经济学的关键概念及其对投资者的影响。

**Nobel Prize in Economics: Behavioral Economics and Its Impact on Investing**

**诺贝尔经济学奖：行为经济学及其对投资的影响**

The Nobel Prize in Economics, officially known as the Prize in Economic Sciences, was established by the Swedish central bank in 1968 to complement the five original Nobel Prizes. It is awarded annually to individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the field of economic science.

诺贝尔经济学奖，正式名称为经济科学奖，由瑞典中央银行于1968年设立，以补充原有的五个诺贝尔奖。该奖项每年颁发给在经济科学领域做出杰出贡献的个人。

One notable recipient of this prestigious award is Richard H. Thaler, who was honored in 2017 for his pioneering work in behavioral economics. Thaler's research has had a profound impact on our understanding of how psychological factors influence economic decision-making, highlighting the limitations of traditional economic models that assume perfectly rational agents.

理查德·H·泰勒 (Richard H. Thaler) 是这一享有盛誉的奖项的著名获奖者，他于 2017 年因其在行为经济学领域的开创性工作而获奖。塞勒的研究对我们对心理因素如何影响经济决策的理解产生了深远的影响，强调了假设完全理性主体的传统经济模型的局限性。

Thaler's contributions to behavioral economics have not only advanced the theoretical underpinnings of the field but have also influenced practical applications, including in the realm of investing. Here's how behavioral economics and Thaler's insights can help investors navigate the markets more effectively:

塞勒对行为经济学的贡献不仅推进了该领域的理论基础，而且影响了实际应用，包括在投资领域。以下是行为经济学和泰勒的见解如何帮助投资者更有效地驾驭市场：

**Loss Aversion and Price Crashes:**

**损失厌恶和价格暴跌：**

Behavioral economics demonstrates that investors are naturally more sensitive to losses than gains, a phenomenon known as loss aversion. This tendency can lead investors to be hesitant to buy stocks that have recently crashed, despite evidence suggesting that "loser" stocks tend to offer superior returns compared to "winner" stocks over the long term.

行为经济学表明，投资者天生对损失比收益更敏感，这种现象被称为损失厌恶。这种趋势可能会导致投资者在购买最近暴跌的股票时犹豫不决，尽管有证据表明，从长远来看，“失败”股票往往比“获胜”股票提供更高的回报。

**Time Preference and Recent News:**

**时间偏好和最新新闻：**

Investors often exhibit a strong preference for recent information, known as recency bias, which can lead to mistakes in the investment process. They may overweight less relevant recent news and undervalue more important data points simply because they are older. This bias can contribute to both market bubbles and crises, exacerbating price fluctuations beyond what fundamentals alone would dictate.

投资者通常对近期信息表现出强烈的偏好，称为新近度偏差，这可能会导致投资过程中的错误。他们可能会高估近期不太相关的新闻，而低估更重要的数据点，仅仅是因为它们较旧。这种偏见可能会导致市场泡沫和危机，加剧价格波动，超出基本面本身所能决定的范围。

**Herd Behaviors and Social Creatures:**

**群体行为和社会生物：**

Humans are inherently social creatures, and this instinct manifests in the realm of investing as well. Investors often behave like a herd, following the same trends because "everyone else is doing it." While this behavior may not always be rational, it serves to maintain social consensus and stability. However, for investors, it can lead to unthinking bubble chasing or panic selling en masse.

人类本质上是社会性动物，这种本能也体现在投资领域。投资者的行为常常像羊群一样，追随相同的趋势，因为“其他人都在这样做”。虽然这种行为并不总是理性的，但它有助于维护社会共识和稳定。然而，对于投资者来说，这可能会导致不加思考的泡沫追逐或大规模恐慌性抛售。

**Overconfidence and Skill Perception:**

**过度自信和技能认知：**

Another implication of behavioral economics, though not directly investigated by Thaler, is the tendency to overestimate our own skills and knowledge. For instance, traders and investors may exaggerate the role their abilities play in successful investments, leading to overconfidence and difficulty adhering to low-risk investment practices, despite their overall better performance over the long term.

行为经济学的另一个含义（尽管塞勒没有直接研究）是高估我们自己的技能和知识的倾向。例如，交易者和投资者可能会夸大他们的能力在成功投资中所发挥的作用，导致过度自信和难以坚持低风险投资实践，尽管他们的长期整体表现较好。

By understanding and accounting for these psychological biases, investors can make more informed decisions and improve their investment strategies. Some tips to mitigate the impact of behavioral biases include:

通过理解和解释这些心理偏差，投资者可以做出更明智的决策并改进他们的投资策略。减轻行为偏见影响的一些技巧包括：

* **Investing for the Long Term:** Focus on long-term goals and avoid making hasty decisions based on short-term market fluctuations or emotions.

* **长期投资：** 关注长期目标，避免根据短期市场波动或情绪做出仓促决策。

* **Diversifying Portfolios:** Spread investments across different asset classes, industries, and companies to reduce risk and enhance stability.

* **多元化投资组合：** 将投资分散到不同的资产类别、行业和公司，以降低风险并增强稳定性。

* **Dollar-Cost Averaging:** Invest a fixed amount regularly, regardless of market conditions, to minimize the impact of price timing errors.

* **平均成本法：** 无论市场状况如何，定期投资固定金额，以尽量减少价格时机错误的影响。

* **Setting Realistic Expectations:** Avoid chasing unrealistic returns or expecting to outsmart the market consistently. Aim for reasonable gains that align with long-term economic growth.

* **设定切合实际的期望：** 避免追逐不切实际的回报或期望始终胜过市场。追求与长期经济增长相一致的合理收益。

* **Seeking Professional Advice:** If needed, consult a financial advisor who can provide personalized guidance and help navigate the complexities of investing.

* **寻求专业建议：** 如果需要，请咨询财务顾问，他们可以提供个性化指导并帮助解决投资的复杂性。

In addition to these strategies, investors can also consider integrating behavioral economics into their investment processes by adopting passive investing techniques. These methods aim to remove the inherent irrational behaviors from the equation, as we discussed earlier.

除了这些策略之外，投资者还可以考虑采用被动投资技术，将行为经济学融入到他们的投资过程中。正如我们之前讨论的，这些方法旨在从方程中消除固有的非理性行为。

By investing regularly in "the market" as a whole, such as through index funds or ETFs, investors relinquish a lot of (bad) decision-making abilities to the crowd. This approach can help achieve solid long-term returns without the need for stock picking or advanced investment knowledge.

通过定期对整个“市场”进行投资（例如通过指数基金或 ETF），投资者将许多（糟糕的）决策能力交给了大众。这种方法可以帮助实现稳定的长期回报，而不需要选股或先进的投资知识。

The rise of behavioral economics in academic circles has also contributed to a greater acceptance of passive investment strategies, as removing decision-making also removes biases. This has made the idea of investing in the stock market more appealing to many people, especially those who may not have the time, interest, or expertise to engage in active investing.

行为经济学在学术界的兴起也促进了人们对被动投资策略的更多接受，因为消除决策也消除了偏见。这使得投资股票市场的想法对许多人更有吸引力，尤其是那些可能没有时间、兴趣或专业知识进行主动投资的人。

Companies that embrace and cater to this trend, such as those involved in creating ETFs, stand to benefit from the growing demand for passive investing solutions. Here are two examples of companies excelling in this space:

拥抱并迎合这一趋势的公司，例如参与创建 ETF 的公司，将从对被动投资解决方案不断增长的需求中受益。以下是在该领域表现出色的公司的两个示例：

**1. BlackRock (BLK)**

**1.贝莱德 (BLK)**

BlackRock is a global investment management, advisory, and technology firm that offers a wide range of financial products and services to institutions and individuals worldwide. It is the world's largest asset manager, with over $9.1 trillion in assets under management as of December 2023.

贝莱德是一家全球投资管理、咨询和技术公司，为全球机构和个人提供广泛的金融产品和服务。它是全球最大的资产管理公司，截至 2023 年 12 月管理的资产超过 9.1 万亿美元。

The company's vast lineup includes iShares ETFs, which are among the most popular and heavily traded ETFs globally. BlackRock also provides mutual funds, closed-end funds, separate accounts, collective investment trusts, and government securities, among other offerings.

该公司庞大的产品阵容包括 iShares ETF，它们是全球最受欢迎和交易量最大的 ETF 之一。贝莱德还提供共同基金、封闭式基金、独立账户、集体投资信托和政府证券等产品。

BlackRock's massive scale and diverse portfolio of investment vehicles, combined with

贝莱德规模庞大且多样化的投资工具组合，结合