気候変動がスペインの大規模なひょう嵐を悪化させた可能性がある

1人が死亡、数十人が負傷した2022年のスペインのひょう嵐は、気候変動によって引き起こされた可能性がある。共著者であるスペイン国家気象庁のフアン・ヘスス・ゴンサレス＝アレマン氏は、産業革命以前の気候であれば、嵐によってより小さなひょうが降ったであろうことをコンピューターシミュレーションが示唆していると述べた。ゴンサレス＝アレマン氏は、6週間続いた海洋熱波が大気を活性化させた可能性があると語る。シミュレーションによれば、産業革命以前の気候では、嵐によってより小さなひょうが降っていたであろうことが示されている。

A torrent of giant hailstones in northeast Spain may have been fueled by climate change.

スペイン北東部に大量のひょうが降ったのは、気候変動によって引き起こされた可能性がある。

On August 31, 2022, a brutal hailstorm struck the small Spanish city of La Bisbal d’Empordà. The storm unleashed balls of ice up to 12 centimeters wide, causing widespread damage to property and crops, injuring dozens of people and killing a 20-month-old toddler. Computer simulations now suggest that in a preindustrial climate, the storm could not have generated hailstones this big, researchers report in the March 28 Geophysical Research Letters.  

2022 年 8 月 31 日、スペインの小さな都市ラ ビスバル デンポルダを激しいひょう嵐が襲いました。嵐は最大幅12センチメートルの氷の塊を放出し、財産や農作物に広範囲の被害をもたらし、数十人が負傷し、生後20か月の幼児が死亡した。産業革命以前の気候では、嵐によってこれほど大きな雹が発生しなかったことをコンピューターシミュレーションが示唆している、と研究者らは3月28日付けの地球物理学リサーチレターで報告している。

The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

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*{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main)}.apple-pay-button{display:inline-block;-webkit-appearance:-apple-pay-button;-apple-pay-button-type:pay;width:440px;max-width:100%;height:45px;margin-top:20px}.apple-pay-button-black{-apple-pay-button-style:black}.zephr-payment-form-disabled-div{pointer-events:none;opacity:0.8}.zephr-payment-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-payment-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-form-input-inner-button{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:5px;padding:10px 5px}.zephr-payment-form-input-inner-text{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)} #zephr-payment-form-root > div { background-image: url(https://sciencenews.org/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg); padding:20px; max-width: 100%; }#zephr-payment-form-root > div > button { max-width: 50%; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 1px; background-color: #e04821; color: white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > div.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7{ color:white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > label > span { color:white;} .zephr-payment-form-input-label.svelte-1ozx4pz span.svelte-1ozx4pz { display: none;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { color:white;}button.zephr-payment-form-button.svelte-1hlz8zp.zephr-payment-form-button-top-margin { background: #d4441f; font-weight: bold; text-transform: uppercase;}label.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1rzrrj8 { color: white; font-size: 1.6rem;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { margin-top: .2rem;}.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-eq3e4e { display: flex; align-items: center; font-family: var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont); color: white; font-weight: bold;} The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

He and his colleagues had suspected that a record-breaking marine heat wave in the western Mediterranean Sea had created the perfect conditions for extreme hailstorms. The heat wave lasted six weeks and pushed seawater temperatures to about 30° Celsius in some areas, or more than 3 degrees above normal, González-Alemán says. This in turn could have supercharged the atmosphere with energy and moisture.

彼と彼の同僚は、地中海西部の記録的な海洋熱波が極端なひょう嵐に最適な条件を作り出しているのではないかと疑っていた。ゴンサレス・アレマン氏によると、熱波は6週間続き、一部の地域では海水温が摂氏約30度、平年より3度以上高かったという。これにより、大気がエネルギーと湿気で過給された可能性があります。

It might be “counterintuitive” to link hail, which in principle requires cold, to a marine heat wave, González-Alemán says. But the extra energy the storm could draw from the hot sea allowed it to produce massive hailstones by staying longer at higher altitudes, where temperatures drop below freezing, he says. “Strong updrafts, fueled by warm sea temperatures and high humidity, can suspend larger hailstones, allowing them to grow for a longer time within the cloud.”

原理的に寒さが必要な雹を海洋熱波と結びつけるのは「直観に反する」かもしれない、とゴンサレス＝アレマン氏は言う。しかし、嵐が熱海から余分なエネルギーを引き出すことで、気温が氷点下になる高地に長く留まり、大量のひょうを発生させることができた、と同氏は言う。 「暖かい海水温と高い湿度によって引き起こされる強い上昇気流は、より大きな雹を浮遊させ、雲の中でより長い間成長することを可能にします。」

To see how the storm might have behaved in a world with a different climate, the researchers used computer simulations to re-create the storm under different circumstances. In one simulation, for example, the team lowered the sea temperature to the average for that time of the year. In another, they also changed atmospheric parameters to preindustrial levels, tweaking things such as air temperature, relative humidity and wind.

気候が異なる世界で嵐がどのように振る舞ったかを確認するために、研究者らはコンピューターシミュレーションを使用して、さまざまな状況下で嵐を再現しました。たとえば、あるシミュレーションでは、チームは海水温をその時期の平均値まで下げました。別の実験では、気温、相対湿度、風などを微調整して、大気パラメータを産業革命以前のレベルに変更しました。

The simulations showed that while the storm would have occurred with or without climate change, it wouldn’t have been able to generate hailstones of the size witnessed in La Bisbal d’Empordà in a preindustrial climate.

シミュレーションの結果、気候変動の有無に関わらず嵐は発生したであろうが、産業革命以前の気候ではラ・ビスバル・デンポルダで目撃されたような大きさの雹を発生させることはできなかったであろうことが示された。

The finding suggests a connection between climate change — which is leading to more frequent and more intense marine heat waves — and the formation of larger, more destructive hailstones (SN: 2/1/22). And, the researchers note, historical data on how often giant hail — defined in their study as wider than 5 centimeters — fell in Spain each year bear that out. While storms with giant hail were once rare, occurring on average three days a year in the early 2010s, the past decade or so has seen a small but worrying uptick in their frequency.

この発見は、より頻繁でより強烈な海洋熱波をもたらしている気候変動と、より大きくより破壊的なひょう石の形成との関連性を示唆している(SN: 2/1/22)。そして、研究者らは、巨大なひょう（研究では幅5センチ以上と定義されている）がスペインで毎年どのくらいの頻度で降ったかに関する過去のデータがそれを裏付けていると指摘している。巨大なひょうを伴う嵐はかつてはまれで、2010年代初頭には年に平均3日程度発生していましたが、過去10年ほどで、その頻度はわずかながら憂慮すべき増加傾向にあります。

Climate scientist Olivia Romppainen-Martius, however, is wary of attributing hail events to climate change based on these kinds of simulations and past meteorological records. “You need multiple lines of evidence that are all robust to really support attribution statements,” says Romppainen-Martius, of the University of Bern in Germany.

しかし、気候科学者のオリヴィア・ロンパイネン・マルティウス氏は、この種のシミュレーションや過去の気象記録に基づいて、ひょう現象を気候変動のせいとすることには慎重だ。ドイツのベルン大学のロンパイネン・マルティウス氏は、「帰属の声明を実際に裏付けるには、すべて堅牢な複数の証拠が必要です」と述べています。

One problem, she says, is that the computer simulations used in this study can´t directly compute the hail size produced by a storm. Instead, scientists must estimate a storm’s hail-forming potential based on parameters such as wind speed, atmospheric stability and air temperature. As a result, what researchers can really evaluate is the likelihood of forming a certain hail size under a particular set of conditions.

彼女によると、問題の 1 つは、この研究で使用されたコンピューター シミュレーションでは、嵐によって発生するひょうのサイズを直接計算できないことです。代わりに、科学者は風速、大気の安定性、気温などのパラメーターに基づいて、嵐によるひょう発生の可能性を推定する必要があります。その結果、研究者が実際に評価できるのは、特定の一連の条件下で特定のサイズのひょうが形成される可能性です。

On top of that, Romppainen-Martius says, the historical databases used to estimate the hail-forming potential of storms could be incomplete, making any long-term trends less reliable. “I would say the jury is still out on whether or not we can attribute individual hail events to climate change.”

その上、ロンパイネン＝マルティウス氏は、暴風雨によるひょう発生の可能性を推定するために使用される過去のデータベースが不完全である可能性があり、長期的な傾向の信頼性が低くなる可能性があると述べています。 「個々の雹の発生を気候変動のせいにできるかどうかについては、まだ結論が出ていないと思います。」

González-Alemán argues, however, that the team’s study shows the strong connection between sea temperature and creating the atmospheric conditions that can produce giant hail. The 2022 storm had “the perfect conditions to reach the maximum possible energy, and that is where the climate change comes in, because it makes [these] heat waves increasingly frequent.”

しかしゴンサレス＝アレマン教授は、研究チームの研究は、海水温と巨大なひょうを発生させる大気条件の形成との間に強い関連性があることを示していると主張する。 2022年の嵐は、「可能な限り最大限のエネルギーに達するための完璧な条件が揃っていた。気候変動によって熱波がますます頻繁になるからだ。」

In the future, as extreme marine heat waves become more intense, people should expect more powerful hailstorms with larger hail sizes, he says. Simulations of the same storm in a context of more advanced climate change showed that hailstones could reach up to 20 centimeters across — nearly twice as wide the largest hail that fell on La Bisbal d’Empordà.

将来、海洋熱波がさらに激化するにつれ、人々はより大きなひょうの規模を伴う、より強力なひょう嵐を予想する必要があると彼は言います。より進んだ気候変動の状況下で同じ嵐をシミュレーションしたところ、ひょうは直径20センチメートルに達する可能性があり、これはラ・ビスバル・デンポルダに降った最大のひょうの幅のほぼ2倍に相当する。

“As we learn more about these extreme events it becomes clear that we need to adapt,” González-Alemán says. “At this point, this is more about adaptation than anything else.”

「これらの極端な現象について詳しく知るにつれて、適応する必要があることが明らかになります」とゴンサレス＝アレマン氏は言う。 「現時点では、これは他の何よりも適応の問題です。」