气候变化可能加剧了西班牙的大冰雹

2022 年西班牙发生的冰雹造成一人死亡、数十人受伤，这可能是气候变化造成的。西班牙国家气象局的合著者胡安·赫苏斯·冈萨雷斯·阿莱曼表示，计算机模拟表明，在工业化前的气候下，这场风暴会产生较小的冰雹。冈萨雷斯-阿莱曼表示，持续六周的海洋热浪可能给大气带来了活力。模拟显示，在工业化前的气候下，这场风暴会产生较小的冰雹。

A torrent of giant hailstones in northeast Spain may have been fueled by climate change.

西班牙东北部的巨大冰雹洪流可能是气候变化造成的。

On August 31, 2022, a brutal hailstorm struck the small Spanish city of La Bisbal d’Empordà. The storm unleashed balls of ice up to 12 centimeters wide, causing widespread damage to property and crops, injuring dozens of people and killing a 20-month-old toddler. Computer simulations now suggest that in a preindustrial climate, the storm could not have generated hailstones this big, researchers report in the March 28 Geophysical Research Letters.  

2022 年 8 月 31 日，一场残酷的冰雹袭击了西班牙小城比斯巴尔·德恩波尔达。风暴释放出宽达 12 厘米的冰球，对财产和农作物造成大范围破坏，造成数十人受伤，并导致一名 20 个月大的幼儿死亡。研究人员在 3 月 28 日的《地球物理研究快报》中报告称，计算机模拟现在表明，在工业化前的气候下，这场风暴不可能产生这么大的冰雹。

The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

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*{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main)}.apple-pay-button{display:inline-block;-webkit-appearance:-apple-pay-button;-apple-pay-button-type:pay;width:440px;max-width:100%;height:45px;margin-top:20px}.apple-pay-button-black{-apple-pay-button-style:black}.zephr-payment-form-disabled-div{pointer-events:none;opacity:0.8}.zephr-payment-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-payment-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-form-input-inner-button{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:5px;padding:10px 5px}.zephr-payment-form-input-inner-text{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)} #zephr-payment-form-root > div { background-image: url(https://sciencenews.org/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg); padding:20px; max-width: 100%; }#zephr-payment-form-root > div > button { max-width: 50%; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 1px; background-color: #e04821; color: white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > div.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7{ color:white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > label > span { color:white;} .zephr-payment-form-input-label.svelte-1ozx4pz span.svelte-1ozx4pz { display: none;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { color:white;}button.zephr-payment-form-button.svelte-1hlz8zp.zephr-payment-form-button-top-margin { background: #d4441f; font-weight: bold; text-transform: uppercase;}label.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1rzrrj8 { color: white; font-size: 1.6rem;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { margin-top: .2rem;}.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-eq3e4e { display: flex; align-items: center; font-family: var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont); color: white; font-weight: bold;} The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

He and his colleagues had suspected that a record-breaking marine heat wave in the western Mediterranean Sea had created the perfect conditions for extreme hailstorms. The heat wave lasted six weeks and pushed seawater temperatures to about 30° Celsius in some areas, or more than 3 degrees above normal, González-Alemán says. This in turn could have supercharged the atmosphere with energy and moisture.

他和他的同事怀疑地中海西部破纪录的海洋热浪为极端冰雹创造了完美的条件。冈萨雷斯-阿莱曼说，热浪持续了六周，导致一些地区的海水温度升至 30 摄氏度左右，比正常水平高出 3 度以上。这反过来又可能使大气充满能量和水分。

It might be “counterintuitive” to link hail, which in principle requires cold, to a marine heat wave, González-Alemán says. But the extra energy the storm could draw from the hot sea allowed it to produce massive hailstones by staying longer at higher altitudes, where temperatures drop below freezing, he says. “Strong updrafts, fueled by warm sea temperatures and high humidity, can suspend larger hailstones, allowing them to grow for a longer time within the cloud.”

冈萨雷斯-阿莱曼说，将原则上需要寒冷的冰雹与海洋热浪联系起来可能是“违反直觉的”。但他说，风暴从热海中汲取的额外能量使其能够在气温降至冰点以下的高海拔地区停留更长时间，从而产生巨大的冰雹。 “在温暖的海水温度和高湿度的推动下，强烈的上升气流可以悬浮较大的冰雹，使它们在云中生长更长时间。”

To see how the storm might have behaved in a world with a different climate, the researchers used computer simulations to re-create the storm under different circumstances. In one simulation, for example, the team lowered the sea temperature to the average for that time of the year. In another, they also changed atmospheric parameters to preindustrial levels, tweaking things such as air temperature, relative humidity and wind.

为了了解风暴在不同气候的世界中的表现，研究人员使用计算机模拟在不同情况下重现风暴。例如，在一次模拟中，该团队将海水温度降低至一年中该时间的平均温度。在另一项研究中，他们还将大气参数改变到工业化前的水平，调整气温、相对湿度和风等参数。

The simulations showed that while the storm would have occurred with or without climate change, it wouldn’t have been able to generate hailstones of the size witnessed in La Bisbal d’Empordà in a preindustrial climate.

模拟显示，无论有没有气候变化，这场风暴都会发生，但它不可能产生工业化前气候下比斯巴尔德恩波尔达那样大小的冰雹。

The finding suggests a connection between climate change — which is leading to more frequent and more intense marine heat waves — and the formation of larger, more destructive hailstones (SN: 2/1/22). And, the researchers note, historical data on how often giant hail — defined in their study as wider than 5 centimeters — fell in Spain each year bear that out. While storms with giant hail were once rare, occurring on average three days a year in the early 2010s, the past decade or so has seen a small but worrying uptick in their frequency.

这一发现表明气候变化（气候变化导致更频繁、更强烈的海洋热浪）与更大、更具破坏性的冰雹的形成之间存在联系（SN：2/1/22）。研究人员指出，西班牙每年下大冰雹（在他们的研究中定义为宽度超过 5 厘米）频率的历史数据也证实了这一点。虽然伴随巨大冰雹的风暴曾经很罕见，在 2010 年代初平均每年发生三天，但在过去十年左右的时间里，其频率略有上升，但令人担忧。

Climate scientist Olivia Romppainen-Martius, however, is wary of attributing hail events to climate change based on these kinds of simulations and past meteorological records. “You need multiple lines of evidence that are all robust to really support attribution statements,” says Romppainen-Martius, of the University of Bern in Germany.

然而，气候科学家奥利维亚·龙佩宁·马蒂斯 (Olivia Romppainen-Martius) 对于根据此类模拟和过去的气象记录将冰雹事件归因于气候变化持谨慎态度。德国伯尔尼大学的 Romppainen-Martius 表示：“你需要多种强有力的证据来真正支持归因陈述。”

One problem, she says, is that the computer simulations used in this study can´t directly compute the hail size produced by a storm. Instead, scientists must estimate a storm’s hail-forming potential based on parameters such as wind speed, atmospheric stability and air temperature. As a result, what researchers can really evaluate is the likelihood of forming a certain hail size under a particular set of conditions.

她说，一个问题是这项研究中使用的计算机模拟无法直接计算风暴产生的冰雹大小。相反，科学家必须根据风速、大气稳定性和气温等参数来估计风暴形成冰雹的可能性。因此，研究人员真正可以评估的是在特定条件下形成特定冰雹尺寸的可能性。

On top of that, Romppainen-Martius says, the historical databases used to estimate the hail-forming potential of storms could be incomplete, making any long-term trends less reliable. “I would say the jury is still out on whether or not we can attribute individual hail events to climate change.”

龙佩宁-马蒂斯表示，最重要的是，用于估计风暴形成冰雹潜力的历史数据库可能不完整，使得任何长期趋势都不那么可靠。 “我想说的是，我们是否可以将个别冰雹事件归因于气候变化，目前还没有定论。”

González-Alemán argues, however, that the team’s study shows the strong connection between sea temperature and creating the atmospheric conditions that can produce giant hail. The 2022 storm had “the perfect conditions to reach the maximum possible energy, and that is where the climate change comes in, because it makes [these] heat waves increasingly frequent.”

然而，冈萨雷斯-阿莱曼认为，该团队的研究表明，海水温度与产生巨大冰雹的大气条件之间存在密切联系。 2022 年的风暴“拥有达到最大可能能量的完美条件，这就是气候变化的作用所在，因为它使[这些]热浪变得越来越频繁。”

In the future, as extreme marine heat waves become more intense, people should expect more powerful hailstorms with larger hail sizes, he says. Simulations of the same storm in a context of more advanced climate change showed that hailstones could reach up to 20 centimeters across — nearly twice as wide the largest hail that fell on La Bisbal d’Empordà.

他说，未来，随着极端海洋热浪变得更加强烈，人们应该预计会出现更强大、冰雹尺寸更大的冰雹。在更严重的气候变化背景下对同一场风暴的模拟显示，冰雹直径可达 20 厘米，几乎是 La Bisbal d’Empordà 最大冰雹宽度的两倍。

“As we learn more about these extreme events it becomes clear that we need to adapt,” González-Alemán says. “At this point, this is more about adaptation than anything else.”

“随着我们对这些极端事件的了解越来越多，我们显然需要适应，”冈萨雷斯-阿莱曼说。 “在这一点上，这更多的是适应而不是其他任何事情。”