氣候變遷可能加劇了西班牙的大冰雹

2022 年西班牙發生的冰雹造成一人死亡、數十人受傷，可能是氣候變遷造成的。西班牙國家氣象局的合著者胡安·赫蘇斯·岡薩雷斯·阿萊曼表示，電腦模擬表明，在工業化前的氣候下，這場風暴會產生較小的冰雹。岡薩雷斯-阿萊曼表示，持續六週的海洋熱浪可能為大氣帶來了活力。模擬顯示，在工業化前的氣候下，這場風暴會產生較小的冰雹。

A torrent of giant hailstones in northeast Spain may have been fueled by climate change.

西班牙東北部的巨大冰雹洪流可能是由氣候變遷造成的。

On August 31, 2022, a brutal hailstorm struck the small Spanish city of La Bisbal d’Empordà. The storm unleashed balls of ice up to 12 centimeters wide, causing widespread damage to property and crops, injuring dozens of people and killing a 20-month-old toddler. Computer simulations now suggest that in a preindustrial climate, the storm could not have generated hailstones this big, researchers report in the March 28 Geophysical Research Letters.  

2022 年 8 月 31 日，一場殘酷的冰雹襲擊了西班牙小城比斯巴爾·德恩波爾達。風暴釋放出寬達 12 公分的冰球，對財產和農作物造成大範圍破壞，造成數十人受傷，並導致一名 20 個月大的幼兒死亡。研究人員在 3 月 28 日的《地球物理研究快報》中報告稱，電腦模擬現在表明，在工業化前的氣候下，這場風暴不可能產生這麼大的冰雹。

The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

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*{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main)}.apple-pay-button{display:inline-block;-webkit-appearance:-apple-pay-button;-apple-pay-button-type:pay;width:440px;max-width:100%;height:45px;margin-top:20px}.apple-pay-button-black{-apple-pay-button-style:black}.zephr-payment-form-disabled-div{pointer-events:none;opacity:0.8}.zephr-payment-form-relative-container{position:relative}.zephr-payment-form-flex-container{display:flex}.zephr-form-input-inner-button{cursor:pointer;position:absolute;top:50%;transform:translateY(-50%);right:5px;padding:10px 5px}.zephr-payment-form-input-inner-text{color:var(--zephr-color-text-main);font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;font-family:var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont)} #zephr-payment-form-root > div { background-image: url(https://sciencenews.org/wp-content/themes/sciencenews/client/src/images/cta-module@2x.jpg); padding:20px; max-width: 100%; }#zephr-payment-form-root > div > button { max-width: 50%; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; border-radius: 1px; background-color: #e04821; color: white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > div.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7{ color:white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > label > span { color:white;} .zephr-payment-form-input-label.svelte-1ozx4pz span.svelte-1ozx4pz { display: none;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { color:white;}button.zephr-payment-form-button.svelte-1hlz8zp.zephr-payment-form-button-top-margin { background: #d4441f; font-weight: bold; text-transform: uppercase;}label.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1rzrrj8 { color: white; font-size: 1.6rem;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { margin-top: .2rem;}.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-eq3e4e { display: flex; align-items: center; font-family: var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont); color: white; font-weight: bold;} The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

He and his colleagues had suspected that a record-breaking marine heat wave in the western Mediterranean Sea had created the perfect conditions for extreme hailstorms. The heat wave lasted six weeks and pushed seawater temperatures to about 30° Celsius in some areas, or more than 3 degrees above normal, González-Alemán says. This in turn could have supercharged the atmosphere with energy and moisture.

他和他的同事懷疑地中海西部破紀錄的海洋熱浪為極端冰雹創造了完美的條件。岡薩雷斯-阿萊曼說，熱浪持續了六週，導致一些地區的海水溫度升至 30 攝氏度左右，比正常高出 3 度以上。這反過來又可能使大氣充滿能量和水分。

It might be “counterintuitive” to link hail, which in principle requires cold, to a marine heat wave, González-Alemán says. But the extra energy the storm could draw from the hot sea allowed it to produce massive hailstones by staying longer at higher altitudes, where temperatures drop below freezing, he says. “Strong updrafts, fueled by warm sea temperatures and high humidity, can suspend larger hailstones, allowing them to grow for a longer time within the cloud.”

岡薩雷斯-阿萊曼說，將原則上需要寒冷的冰雹與海洋熱浪聯繫起來可能是「違反直覺的」。但他說，風暴從熱海中汲取的額外能量使其能夠在氣溫降至冰點以下的高海拔地區停留更長時間，產生巨大的冰雹。 “在溫暖的海水溫度和高濕度的推動下，強烈的上升氣流可以懸浮較大的冰雹，使它們在雲中生長更長時間。”

To see how the storm might have behaved in a world with a different climate, the researchers used computer simulations to re-create the storm under different circumstances. In one simulation, for example, the team lowered the sea temperature to the average for that time of the year. In another, they also changed atmospheric parameters to preindustrial levels, tweaking things such as air temperature, relative humidity and wind.

為了了解風暴在不同氣候的世界中的表現，研究人員使用電腦模擬在不同情況下重現風暴。例如，在一次模擬中，團隊將海水溫度降低至一年中該時間的平均溫度。在另一項研究中，他們還將大氣參數改變到工業化前的水平，調整氣溫、相對濕度和風等參數。

The simulations showed that while the storm would have occurred with or without climate change, it wouldn’t have been able to generate hailstones of the size witnessed in La Bisbal d’Empordà in a preindustrial climate.

模擬顯示，無論有沒有氣候變化，這場風暴都會發生，但它不可能產生工業化前氣候下比斯巴爾德恩波爾達那樣大小的冰雹。

The finding suggests a connection between climate change — which is leading to more frequent and more intense marine heat waves — and the formation of larger, more destructive hailstones (SN: 2/1/22). And, the researchers note, historical data on how often giant hail — defined in their study as wider than 5 centimeters — fell in Spain each year bear that out. While storms with giant hail were once rare, occurring on average three days a year in the early 2010s, the past decade or so has seen a small but worrying uptick in their frequency.

這項發現表明氣候變遷（氣候變遷導致更頻繁、更強烈的海洋熱浪）與更大、更具破壞性的冰雹的形成之間存在關聯（SN：2/1/22）。研究人員指出，西班牙每年下大冰雹（在他們的研究中定義為寬度超過 5 公分）頻率的歷史數據也證實了這一點。雖然伴隨巨大冰雹的風暴曾經很罕見，在 2010 年代初平均每年發生三天，但在過去十年左右的時間裡，其頻率略有上升，但令人擔憂。

Climate scientist Olivia Romppainen-Martius, however, is wary of attributing hail events to climate change based on these kinds of simulations and past meteorological records. “You need multiple lines of evidence that are all robust to really support attribution statements,” says Romppainen-Martius, of the University of Bern in Germany.

然而，氣候科學家奧利維亞·龍佩寧·馬蒂斯 (Olivia Romppainen-Martius) 對於根據此類模擬和過去的氣象記錄將冰雹事件歸因於氣候變遷持謹慎態度。德國伯爾尼大學的 Romppainen-Martius 表示：“你需要多種強有力的證據來真正支持歸因陳述。”

One problem, she says, is that the computer simulations used in this study can´t directly compute the hail size produced by a storm. Instead, scientists must estimate a storm’s hail-forming potential based on parameters such as wind speed, atmospheric stability and air temperature. As a result, what researchers can really evaluate is the likelihood of forming a certain hail size under a particular set of conditions.

她說，一個問題是這項研究中使用的電腦模擬無法直接計算風暴產生的冰雹大小。相反，科學家必須根據風速、大氣穩定和氣溫等參數來估計風暴形成冰雹的可能性。因此，研究人員真正可以評估的是在特定條件下形成特定冰雹尺寸的可能性。

On top of that, Romppainen-Martius says, the historical databases used to estimate the hail-forming potential of storms could be incomplete, making any long-term trends less reliable. “I would say the jury is still out on whether or not we can attribute individual hail events to climate change.”

龍佩寧-馬蒂斯表示，最重要的是，用於估計風暴形成冰雹潛力的歷史資料庫可能不完整，使得任何長期趨勢都不那麼可靠。 “我想說的是，我們是否可以將個別冰雹事件歸因於氣候變化，目前還沒有定論。”

González-Alemán argues, however, that the team’s study shows the strong connection between sea temperature and creating the atmospheric conditions that can produce giant hail. The 2022 storm had “the perfect conditions to reach the maximum possible energy, and that is where the climate change comes in, because it makes [these] heat waves increasingly frequent.”

然而，岡薩雷斯-阿萊曼認為，該團隊的研究表明，海水溫度與產生巨大冰雹的大氣條件之間存在密切關聯。 2022 年的風暴“擁有達到最大可能能量的完美條件，這就是氣候變遷的作用所在，因為它使[這些]熱浪變得越來越頻繁。”

In the future, as extreme marine heat waves become more intense, people should expect more powerful hailstorms with larger hail sizes, he says. Simulations of the same storm in a context of more advanced climate change showed that hailstones could reach up to 20 centimeters across — nearly twice as wide the largest hail that fell on La Bisbal d’Empordà.

他說，未來，隨著極端海洋熱浪變得更加強烈，人們應該預期會出現更強大、冰雹尺寸更大的冰雹。在更嚴重的氣候變遷背景下對同一場風暴的模擬顯示，冰雹直徑可達 20 厘米，幾乎是 La Bisbal d’Empordà 最大冰雹寬度的兩倍。

“As we learn more about these extreme events it becomes clear that we need to adapt,” González-Alemán says. “At this point, this is more about adaptation than anything else.”

「隨著我們對這些極端事件的了解越來越多，我們顯然需要適應，」岡薩雷斯-阿萊曼說。 “在這一點上，這更多的是適應而不是其他任何事情。”