Der Klimawandel könnte große Hagelstürme in Spanien verschärft haben

Ein spanischer Hagelsturm im Jahr 2022, der einen Menschen tötete und Dutzende verletzte, könnte durch den Klimawandel angeheizt worden sein. Computersimulationen deuten darauf hin, dass der Sturm in einem vorindustriellen Klima kleinere Hagelkörner erzeugt hätte, sagte Co-Autor Juan Jesús González-Alemán von der staatlichen spanischen Meteorologiebehörde. González-Alemán sagt, dass eine sechswöchige Meereshitzewelle die Atmosphäre möglicherweise mit Energie versorgt hat. Simulationen zeigen, dass der Sturm in einem vorindustriellen Klima kleinere Hagelkörner erzeugt hätte.

A torrent of giant hailstones in northeast Spain may have been fueled by climate change.

Eine Flut riesiger Hagelkörner im Nordosten Spaniens könnte durch den Klimawandel angeheizt worden sein.

On August 31, 2022, a brutal hailstorm struck the small Spanish city of La Bisbal d’Empordà. The storm unleashed balls of ice up to 12 centimeters wide, causing widespread damage to property and crops, injuring dozens of people and killing a 20-month-old toddler. Computer simulations now suggest that in a preindustrial climate, the storm could not have generated hailstones this big, researchers report in the March 28 Geophysical Research Letters.  

Am 31. August 2022 traf ein brutaler Hagelsturm die kleine spanische Stadt La Bisbal d’Empordà. Der Sturm löste bis zu 12 Zentimeter breite Eisbälle aus, die großen Schaden an Eigentum und Ernte anrichteten, Dutzende Menschen verletzten und ein 20 Monate altes Kleinkind töteten. Computersimulationen deuten nun darauf hin, dass der Sturm in einem vorindustriellen Klima keine so großen Hagelkörner hätte erzeugen können, berichten Forscher in den Geophysical Research Letters vom 28. März.

The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

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margin-right: auto; border-radius: 1px; background-color: #e04821; color: white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > div.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7{ color:white;}#zephr-payment-form-root > div > label > span { color:white;} .zephr-payment-form-input-label.svelte-1ozx4pz span.svelte-1ozx4pz { display: none;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { color:white;}button.zephr-payment-form-button.svelte-1hlz8zp.zephr-payment-form-button-top-margin { background: #d4441f; font-weight: bold; text-transform: uppercase;}label.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-1rzrrj8 { color: white; font-size: 1.6rem;}.zephr-payment-form-custom-text.svelte-s692p7 { margin-top: .2rem;}.zephr-payment-form-checkbox-label.svelte-eq3e4e { display: flex; align-items: center; font-family: var(--zephr-typography-body-font), var(--zephr-typography-body-fallbackFont); color: white; font-weight: bold;} The study is the first to establish a link between climate change and a specific hailstorm. “In the past, it was thought that climate change could only be associated with large-scale or global phenomena,” says Juan Jesús González-Alemán, an atmospheric scientist at the Spanish State Meteorological Agency in Madrid.

He and his colleagues had suspected that a record-breaking marine heat wave in the western Mediterranean Sea had created the perfect conditions for extreme hailstorms. The heat wave lasted six weeks and pushed seawater temperatures to about 30° Celsius in some areas, or more than 3 degrees above normal, González-Alemán says. This in turn could have supercharged the atmosphere with energy and moisture.

Er und seine Kollegen hatten vermutet, dass eine rekordverdächtige Meereshitzewelle im westlichen Mittelmeer die perfekten Bedingungen für extreme Hagelstürme geschaffen hatte. Die Hitzewelle dauerte sechs Wochen und ließ die Meerwassertemperaturen in einigen Gebieten auf etwa 30° Celsius steigen, also mehr als 3 Grad über dem Normalwert, sagt González-Alemán. Dies wiederum könnte die Atmosphäre mit Energie und Feuchtigkeit aufgeladen haben.

It might be “counterintuitive” to link hail, which in principle requires cold, to a marine heat wave, González-Alemán says. But the extra energy the storm could draw from the hot sea allowed it to produce massive hailstones by staying longer at higher altitudes, where temperatures drop below freezing, he says. “Strong updrafts, fueled by warm sea temperatures and high humidity, can suspend larger hailstones, allowing them to grow for a longer time within the cloud.”

Es könnte „kontraintuitiv“ sein, Hagel, der im Prinzip Kälte erfordert, mit einer Hitzewelle im Meer in Verbindung zu bringen, sagt González-Alemán. Aber die zusätzliche Energie, die der Sturm aus dem heißen Meer ziehen konnte, ermöglichte es ihm, massive Hagelkörner zu produzieren, indem er sich länger in höheren Lagen aufhielt, wo die Temperaturen unter den Gefrierpunkt fallen, sagt er. „Starke Aufwinde, angeheizt durch warme Meerestemperaturen und hohe Luftfeuchtigkeit, können größere Hagelkörner schweben lassen, sodass sie länger in der Wolke wachsen können.“

To see how the storm might have behaved in a world with a different climate, the researchers used computer simulations to re-create the storm under different circumstances. In one simulation, for example, the team lowered the sea temperature to the average for that time of the year. In another, they also changed atmospheric parameters to preindustrial levels, tweaking things such as air temperature, relative humidity and wind.

Um zu sehen, wie sich der Sturm in einer Welt mit einem anderen Klima verhalten hätte, verwendeten die Forscher Computersimulationen, um den Sturm unter anderen Umständen nachzubilden. In einer Simulation senkte das Team beispielsweise die Meerestemperatur auf den Durchschnitt dieser Jahreszeit. In einem anderen Fall haben sie auch atmosphärische Parameter auf vorindustrielles Niveau gebracht und Dinge wie Lufttemperatur, relative Luftfeuchtigkeit und Wind optimiert.

The simulations showed that while the storm would have occurred with or without climate change, it wouldn’t have been able to generate hailstones of the size witnessed in La Bisbal d’Empordà in a preindustrial climate.

Die Simulationen zeigten, dass der Sturm zwar mit oder ohne Klimawandel aufgetreten wäre, er jedoch nicht in der Lage gewesen wäre, Hagelkörner der Größe zu erzeugen, wie sie in La Bisbal d’Empordà in einem vorindustriellen Klima beobachtet wurden.

The finding suggests a connection between climate change — which is leading to more frequent and more intense marine heat waves — and the formation of larger, more destructive hailstones (SN: 2/1/22). And, the researchers note, historical data on how often giant hail — defined in their study as wider than 5 centimeters — fell in Spain each year bear that out. While storms with giant hail were once rare, occurring on average three days a year in the early 2010s, the past decade or so has seen a small but worrying uptick in their frequency.

Der Befund legt einen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Klimawandel – der zu häufigeren und intensiveren Hitzewellen im Meer führt – und der Bildung größerer, zerstörerischerer Hagelkörner nahe (SN: 01.02.22). Und die Forscher stellen fest, dass historische Daten darüber, wie oft in Spanien jedes Jahr riesiger Hagel fiel – in ihrer Studie als breiter als 5 Zentimeter definiert – dies belegen. Während Stürme mit riesigem Hagel einst selten waren und Anfang der 2010er-Jahre durchschnittlich an drei Tagen im Jahr auftraten, ist in den letzten zehn Jahren ein kleiner, aber besorgniserregender Anstieg ihrer Häufigkeit zu verzeichnen.

Climate scientist Olivia Romppainen-Martius, however, is wary of attributing hail events to climate change based on these kinds of simulations and past meteorological records. “You need multiple lines of evidence that are all robust to really support attribution statements,” says Romppainen-Martius, of the University of Bern in Germany.

Die Klimaforscherin Olivia Romppainen-Martius ist jedoch vorsichtig, wenn es darum geht, Hagelereignisse auf der Grundlage solcher Simulationen und früherer meteorologischer Aufzeichnungen dem Klimawandel zuzuschreiben. „Man braucht mehrere Beweislinien, die alle belastbar sind, um Zuschreibungsaussagen wirklich zu stützen“, sagt Romppainen-Martius von der Universität Bern in Deutschland.

One problem, she says, is that the computer simulations used in this study can´t directly compute the hail size produced by a storm. Instead, scientists must estimate a storm’s hail-forming potential based on parameters such as wind speed, atmospheric stability and air temperature. As a result, what researchers can really evaluate is the likelihood of forming a certain hail size under a particular set of conditions.

Ein Problem sei, sagt sie, dass die in dieser Studie verwendeten Computersimulationen die Hagelgröße eines Sturms nicht direkt berechnen können. Stattdessen müssen Wissenschaftler das Hagelbildungspotenzial eines Sturms anhand von Parametern wie Windgeschwindigkeit, atmosphärischer Stabilität und Lufttemperatur abschätzen. Was Forscher daher wirklich beurteilen können, ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sich unter bestimmten Bedingungen eine bestimmte Hagelgröße bildet.

On top of that, Romppainen-Martius says, the historical databases used to estimate the hail-forming potential of storms could be incomplete, making any long-term trends less reliable. “I would say the jury is still out on whether or not we can attribute individual hail events to climate change.”

Darüber hinaus könnten laut Romppainen-Martius die historischen Datenbanken, die zur Schätzung des Hagelbildungspotenzials von Stürmen verwendet werden, unvollständig sein, was langfristige Trends weniger zuverlässig machen würde. „Ich würde sagen, die Entscheidung darüber, ob wir einzelne Hagelereignisse auf den Klimawandel zurückführen können, ist noch unklar.“

González-Alemán argues, however, that the team’s study shows the strong connection between sea temperature and creating the atmospheric conditions that can produce giant hail. The 2022 storm had “the perfect conditions to reach the maximum possible energy, and that is where the climate change comes in, because it makes [these] heat waves increasingly frequent.”

González-Alemán argumentiert jedoch, dass die Studie des Teams den starken Zusammenhang zwischen der Meerestemperatur und der Schaffung der atmosphärischen Bedingungen zeigt, die riesigen Hagel erzeugen können. Der Sturm im Jahr 2022 hatte „die perfekten Bedingungen, um die maximal mögliche Energie zu erreichen, und hier kommt der Klimawandel ins Spiel, weil er [diese] Hitzewellen immer häufiger macht.“

In the future, as extreme marine heat waves become more intense, people should expect more powerful hailstorms with larger hail sizes, he says. Simulations of the same storm in a context of more advanced climate change showed that hailstones could reach up to 20 centimeters across — nearly twice as wide the largest hail that fell on La Bisbal d’Empordà.

In Zukunft, da extreme Meereshitzewellen immer intensiver werden, müssten die Menschen stärkere Hagelstürme mit größeren Hagelgrößen erwarten, sagt er. Simulationen desselben Sturms vor dem Hintergrund eines fortgeschritteneren Klimawandels zeigten, dass Hagelkörner einen Durchmesser von bis zu 20 Zentimetern erreichen können – fast doppelt so breit wie der größte Hagel, der auf La Bisbal d’Empordà niederging.

“As we learn more about these extreme events it becomes clear that we need to adapt,” González-Alemán says. “At this point, this is more about adaptation than anything else.”

„Je mehr wir über diese Extremereignisse erfahren, desto klarer wird, dass wir uns anpassen müssen“, sagt González-Alemán. „An diesem Punkt geht es mehr um Anpassung als um alles andere.“