ヘイズ氏、流動性の逼迫によるビットコイン半減期の不確実性を警告

仮想通貨億万長者のアーサー・ヘイズ氏は、米ドルの流動性低下により、来る半減期前後にビットコインを含む仮想通貨市場が大幅に下落すると予測している。 BTC不足の急増が予想されるにもかかわらず、ヘイズ氏は納税や連邦準備制度の量的引き締めプログラムなどの外部経済要因により反応が弱まると予想している。そのため同氏は注意を呼び掛け、５月まで市場から撤退するよう勧告した。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact Uncertain Amidst Tightening Liquidity

Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes has issued a sobering warning for investors, predicting a challenging period for cryptocurrencies until May. His analysis suggests that the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving, scheduled for the spring, may not deliver the expected price surge due to macroeconomic headwinds.

Halving Narrative Challenged

物語の半減に挑戦

The halving, an event that occurs every four years, reduces the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, theoretically increasing scarcity and price. However, Hayes believes the market's entrenched belief in the halving's positive impact may ultimately lead to the opposite outcome.

"When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs," Hayes asserts. "That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving."

Liquidity Concerns Cloud Outlook

流動性懸念クラウドの見通し

Hayes explains that the halving's potential price rally could be dampened by the current tight U.S. dollar liquidity. Tax payments, the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, and the Treasury General Account's (TGA) balance have reduced the availability of dollars in the market, impacting asset prices.

This liquidity squeeze has the potential to exacerbate the decline in crypto prices during the halving period. Instead of fueling a rally, the halving could "add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets," according to Hayes.

Bearish Stance Until May

Given these concerns, Hayes has adopted a cautious approach, selling Solana (SOL), meme coin cat in a dog's world (MEW), and NetMind Chain utility coin NetMind Token (NMT). "The proceeds were placed into Ethena’s USDe and staked to earn that phat yield," he writes.

Ethena's USDe is a "synthetic dollar protocol" that generates yield from a combination of Ethereum staking rewards and hedging derivatives positions. However, its high yields have drawn comparisons to Terra's TerraUSD stablecoin, which collapsed in 2022, causing significant losses.

EthenaのUSDeは、Ethereumステーキング報酬とヘッジデリバティブポジションの組み合わせから利回りを生成する「合成ドルプロトコル」です。しかし、その利回りの高さは、2022年に破綻して多額の損失を引き起こしたTerraのステーブルコインTerraUSDと比較されることになった。

Shorting Not on the Table

ショートはテーブルにない

Despite his bearish outlook, Hayes emphasizes that he will refrain from shorting the market during this period. "From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone," he writes. "I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest."

Conclusion

Hayes' analysis provides a stark contrast to the prevailing optimism surrounding the Bitcoin halving. While the event has historically triggered price increases, the current macroeconomic environment presents challenges that could dampen the expected rally. Investors are advised to approach the halving with caution and consider the potential risks outlined by Hayes.

ヘイズの分析は、ビットコイン半減期をめぐる一般的な楽観論とは顕著な対照をなしている。このイベントは歴史的に価格上昇のきっかけとなってきたが、現在のマクロ経済環境は予想される価格上昇を弱める可能性のある課題を提示している。投資家は、半減期に慎重に取り組み、ヘイズ氏が概説した潜在的なリスクを考慮することをお勧めします。