海耶斯警告称，由于流动性紧张，比特币减半存在不确定性

加密货币亿万富翁阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 预测，由于美元流动性减少，在即将到来的减半期间，包括比特币在内的加密货币市场将大幅下滑。尽管预计比特币稀缺性将激增，但海耶斯预计，由于纳税和美联储量化紧缩计划等外部经济因素，比特币的反应将会减弱。因此，他建议谨慎行事，并建议在五月份之前退出市场。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact Uncertain Amidst Tightening Liquidity

在流动性紧张的情况下，比特币减半的影响不确定

Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes has issued a sobering warning for investors, predicting a challenging period for cryptocurrencies until May. His analysis suggests that the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving, scheduled for the spring, may not deliver the expected price surge due to macroeconomic headwinds.

比特币亿万富翁 Arthur Hayes 向投资者发出了发人深省的警告，预计到 5 月份加密货币将面临一个充满挑战的时期。他的分析表明，由于宏观经济不利因素，定于春季进行的备受期待的比特币减半可能不会带来预期的价格飙升。

Halving Narrative Challenged

减半叙事受到挑战

The halving, an event that occurs every four years, reduces the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, theoretically increasing scarcity and price. However, Hayes believes the market's entrenched belief in the halving's positive impact may ultimately lead to the opposite outcome.

每四年发生一次的减半事件减少了进入流通的新比特币数量，理论上增加了稀缺性和价格。然而，海耶斯认为，市场对减半积极影响的根深蒂固的信念可能最终会导致相反的结果。

"When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs," Hayes asserts. "That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving."

海耶斯断言：“当大多数市场参与者就某个结果达成一致时，通常会发生相反的情况。” “这就是为什么我相信比特币和加密货币价格总体将在减半前后暴跌。”

Liquidity Concerns Cloud Outlook

流动性担忧云前景

Hayes explains that the halving's potential price rally could be dampened by the current tight U.S. dollar liquidity. Tax payments, the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, and the Treasury General Account's (TGA) balance have reduced the availability of dollars in the market, impacting asset prices.

海耶斯解释说，减半的潜在价格上涨可能会因当前美元流动性紧张而受到抑制。纳税、美联储的量化紧缩（QT）计划和财政部普通账户（TGA）余额减少了市场上美元的供应量，影响了资产价格。

This liquidity squeeze has the potential to exacerbate the decline in crypto prices during the halving period. Instead of fueling a rally, the halving could "add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets," according to Hayes.

这种流动性紧缩有可能加剧减半期间加密货币价格的下跌。海耶斯表示，减半不仅不会推动涨势，反而可能“为加密资产的疯狂抛售注入动力”。

Bearish Stance Until May

五月份之前的看跌立场

Given these concerns, Hayes has adopted a cautious approach, selling Solana (SOL), meme coin cat in a dog's world (MEW), and NetMind Chain utility coin NetMind Token (NMT). "The proceeds were placed into Ethena’s USDe and staked to earn that phat yield," he writes.

考虑到这些担忧，Hayes 采取了谨慎的态度，出售了 Solana (SOL)、狗世界中的 meme 币猫 (MEW) 和 NetMind Chain 实用币 NetMind Token (NMT)。他写道：“所得收益被存入 Ethena 的 USDe 并质押以赚取巨额收益。”

Ethena's USDe is a "synthetic dollar protocol" that generates yield from a combination of Ethereum staking rewards and hedging derivatives positions. However, its high yields have drawn comparisons to Terra's TerraUSD stablecoin, which collapsed in 2022, causing significant losses.

Ethena 的 USDe 是一种“合成美元协议”，它通过以太坊质押奖励和对冲衍生品头寸的组合产生收益。然而，它的高收益率让人与 Terra 的 TerraUSD 稳定币进行比较，后者于 2022 年崩盘，造成重大损失。

Shorting Not on the Table

做空不可行

Despite his bearish outlook, Hayes emphasizes that he will refrain from shorting the market during this period. "From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone," he writes. "I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest."

尽管海耶斯对前景持悲观态度，但他强调，在此期间他将避免做空市场。 “从现在到 5 月 1 日，我将处于非贸易区，”他写道。 “我希望在五月份带着干火药回来，做好部署准备，为牛市的真正开始做好准备。”

Conclusion

结论

Hayes' analysis provides a stark contrast to the prevailing optimism surrounding the Bitcoin halving. While the event has historically triggered price increases, the current macroeconomic environment presents challenges that could dampen the expected rally. Investors are advised to approach the halving with caution and consider the potential risks outlined by Hayes.

海斯的分析与围绕比特币减半的普遍乐观情绪形成鲜明对比。尽管该事件历来都会引发价格上涨，但当前的宏观经济环境带来的挑战可能会抑制预期的上涨。建议投资者谨慎对待减半，并考虑海耶斯概述的潜在风险。