海耶斯警告稱，由於流動性緊張，比特幣減半存在不確定性

加密貨幣億萬富翁阿瑟·海耶斯 (Arthur Hayes) 預測，由於美元流動性減少，在即將到來的減半期間，包括比特幣在內的加密貨幣市場將大幅下滑。儘管預計比特幣稀缺性將激增，但海耶斯預計，由於納稅和聯準會量化緊縮計畫等外部經濟因素，比特幣的反應將會減弱。因此，他建議謹慎行事，並建議在五月之前退出市場。

Bitcoin Halving's Impact Uncertain Amidst Tightening Liquidity

在流動性緊張的情況下，比特幣減半的影響不確定

Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes has issued a sobering warning for investors, predicting a challenging period for cryptocurrencies until May. His analysis suggests that the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving, scheduled for the spring, may not deliver the expected price surge due to macroeconomic headwinds.

比特幣億萬富翁 Arthur Hayes 向投資者發出了發人深省的警告，預計到 5 月加密貨幣將面臨一個充滿挑戰的時期。他的分析表明，由於宏觀經濟不利因素，定於春季進行的備受期待的比特幣減半可能不會帶來預期的價格飆升。

Halving Narrative Challenged

減半敘事受到挑戰

The halving, an event that occurs every four years, reduces the number of new Bitcoins entering circulation, theoretically increasing scarcity and price. However, Hayes believes the market's entrenched belief in the halving's positive impact may ultimately lead to the opposite outcome.

每四年發生一次的減半事件減少了進入流通的新比特幣數量，理論上增加了稀缺性和價格。然而，海耶斯認為，市場對減半正面影響的根深蒂固的信念可能最終會導致相反的結果。

"When most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually occurs," Hayes asserts. "That is why I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving."

海耶斯斷言：“當大多數市場參與者就某個結果達成一致時，通常會發生相反的情況。” “這就是為什麼我相信比特幣和加密貨幣價格總體將在減半前後暴跌。”

Liquidity Concerns Cloud Outlook

流動性擔憂雲前景

Hayes explains that the halving's potential price rally could be dampened by the current tight U.S. dollar liquidity. Tax payments, the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, and the Treasury General Account's (TGA) balance have reduced the availability of dollars in the market, impacting asset prices.

海耶斯解釋說，減半的潛在價格上漲可能會因當前美元流動性緊張而受到抑制。納稅、聯準會的量化緊縮（QT）計畫和財政部普通帳戶（TGA）餘額減少了市場上美元的供應量，影響了資產價格。

This liquidity squeeze has the potential to exacerbate the decline in crypto prices during the halving period. Instead of fueling a rally, the halving could "add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets," according to Hayes.

這種流動性緊縮有可能加劇減半期間加密貨幣價格的下跌。海耶斯表示，減半不僅不會推動漲勢，反而可能「為加密資產的瘋狂拋售注入動力」。

Bearish Stance Until May

五月之前的看跌立場

Given these concerns, Hayes has adopted a cautious approach, selling Solana (SOL), meme coin cat in a dog's world (MEW), and NetMind Chain utility coin NetMind Token (NMT). "The proceeds were placed into Ethena’s USDe and staked to earn that phat yield," he writes.

考慮到這些擔憂，Hayes 採取了謹慎的態度，出售了 Solana (SOL)、狗世界中的 meme 幣貓 (MEW) 和 NetMind Chain 實用幣 NetMind Token (NMT)。他寫道：“所得收益被存入 Ethena 的 USDe 並質押以賺取巨額收益。”

Ethena's USDe is a "synthetic dollar protocol" that generates yield from a combination of Ethereum staking rewards and hedging derivatives positions. However, its high yields have drawn comparisons to Terra's TerraUSD stablecoin, which collapsed in 2022, causing significant losses.

Ethena 的 USDe 是一種“合成美元協議”，它透過以太坊質押獎勵和對沖衍生性商品頭寸的組合產生收益。然而，它的高收益率讓人與 Terra 的 TerraUSD 穩定幣進行比較，後者於 2022 年崩盤，造成重大損失。

Shorting Not on the Table

做空不可行

Despite his bearish outlook, Hayes emphasizes that he will refrain from shorting the market during this period. "From now until May 1st, I will be in a no-trade zone," he writes. "I hope to return in May with dry powder ready to deploy to position myself for the bull market to begin in earnest."

儘管海耶斯對前景持悲觀態度，但他強調，在此期間他將避免做空市場。 「從現在到 5 月 1 日，我將處於非貿易區，」他寫道。 “我希望在五月帶著乾火藥回來，做好部署準備，為牛市的真正開始做好準備。”

Conclusion

結論

Hayes' analysis provides a stark contrast to the prevailing optimism surrounding the Bitcoin halving. While the event has historically triggered price increases, the current macroeconomic environment presents challenges that could dampen the expected rally. Investors are advised to approach the halving with caution and consider the potential risks outlined by Hayes.

海斯的分析與圍繞比特幣減半的普遍樂觀情緒形成鮮明對比。儘管該事件歷來都會引發價格上漲，但當前的宏觀經濟環境帶來的挑戰可能會抑制預期的上漲。建議投資者謹慎對待減半，並考慮海耶斯概述的潛在風險。