Bernstein Initiates Coverage of Coinbase Global Inc. With a $310 Price Target, Implying 69% Upside

The research firm highlighted Coinbase's dominance in the U.S. crypto market and projected robust earnings growth driven by regulatory clarity and expansion of crypto trading volumes back to American shores.

Bernstein initiated coverage of Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN) with a Risky rating and a price target of $310, presenting a potential 69% upside from its current price of $188.96.

Highlighting Coinbase's dominance in the U.S. crypto market and projected robust earnings growth driven by regulatory clarity and expansion of crypto trading volumes back to American shores, Bernstein analysts believe the company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the reshoring of global crypto markets to the United States.

They pointed out that Coinbase's leadership, highlighted by over 66% U.S. market share, places it as the premier platform to benefit from an increasingly crypto-friendly regulatory environment.

Bernstein expects Coinbase's earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% through 2026, substantially ahead of Wall Street consensus estimates.

"We are about 30% above consensus on 2025 EPS estimates and approximately 61% ahead for 2026," the analysts stated.

The firm also noted the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance, including plans to make the U.S. the global hub for digital assets.

Policies such as a stablecoin bill and digital asset market structure legislation are expected to be passed by year-end 2024, which bodes well for Coinbase.

Bernstein expects these regulatory changes to drive a return of offshore crypto volumes to U.S. markets, lifting Coinbase's revenues and offsetting competitive pressures from fintech and brokerage entrants.

Beyond trading, Bernstein praised Coinbase's growing non-trading revenue streams such as staking, stablecoin issuance and institutional custody services, which provide a buffer against the cyclicality of crypto trading volumes.

The firm's report forecasts non-trading revenues to grow at a 31% CAGR between 2024 and 2026.

Despite looming competition from firms like Robinhood and traditional brokerages, Bernstein maintains that Coinbase's "compliance-first approach and impeccable safety track record" offer a durable advantage.

"We believe COIN trades cheap at current levels relative to its EPS growth," the firm concluded, noting Coinbase's price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio is materially lower than peers.

Bernstein's valuation assumes a 21x price-to-earnings multiple based on 2026 earnings, which it says is in line with fintech and broker-dealer peers.

Coinbase stock has declined roughly 24% over the past year but has rallied in tandem with improving sentiment around digital assets amid institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds.

"The regulatory dark cloud that hovered over Coinbase has lifted, and this provides a fresh runway for COIN's next leg of growth," the analysts stated.