XRP（XRP）代币：百万富翁制造者还是陷阱？

2020年，XRP的母公司Ripple被美国证券交易委员会（SEC）起诉。监管机构声称该公司出售 XRP

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies declined sharply over the past week, largely in response to a hotter-than-expected jobs report.

比特币和其他主要加密货币在过去一周大幅下跌，主要是由于就业报告热于预期。

Bitcoin fell nearly 10% between Jan. 7 and Jan. 14, while Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin all lost as much or more than the oldest, most valuable coin. XRP (XRP 6.72%), however, managed to gain 3.7% since Jan. 7. Let's take a look at why and then consider whether XRP could be a millionaire maker.

1 月 7 日至 1 月 14 日期间，比特币下跌了近 10%，而以太坊、Solana 和狗狗币的损失都与最古老、最有价值的硬币一样多或更多。然而，XRP（XRP 6.72%）自 1 月 7 日以来上涨了 3.7%。让我们看看为什么，然后考虑 XRP 是否可以成为百万富翁。

A key deadline looms

关键最后期限迫在眉睫

In 2020, XRP's parent company, Ripple, was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulator claimed that the company sold XRP as an unregistered security, a pretty big no-no. In August 2024, a court ruled mostly in Ripple's favor, approving a $125 million fine when the SEC was originally seeking $2 billion.

2020年，XRP的母公司Ripple被美国证券交易委员会（SEC）起诉。监管机构声称该公司将 XRP 作为未注册的证券出售，这是一个很大的禁忌。 2024 年 8 月，法院做出了对 Ripple 有利的裁决，批准了 1.25 亿美元的罚款，而 SEC 最初寻求的是 20 亿美元的罚款。

How is this relevant now, though? The SEC appealed the ruling in October but still must present its evidence if an appeal is to move forward. The deadline to do so is today. Under normal circumstances, there would be little reason to believe the SEC wouldn't meet this deadline. However, the regulator is undergoing a key change in leadership brought on by the election of Donald Trump.

但现在这有什么关系呢？美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 于 10 月份对该裁决提出上诉，但如果要继续上诉，仍必须提供证据。这样做的最后期限是今天。在正常情况下，没有理由相信美国证券交易委员会不会在这个最后期限前完成任务。然而，由于唐纳德·特朗普的当选，该监管机构正在经历领导层的重大变化。

The current chair, Gary Gensler, is stepping down. Gensler has not exactly been a friend to XRP and crypto at large, but Trump's pick for his replacement, Pail Atkins, will likely take a different tack. Investors appear to be betting on the SEC not pursuing its appeal further in anticipation of this change in leadership and broader philosophy.

现任主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 即将卸任。 Gensler 并不是 XRP 和整个加密货币的朋友，但特朗普选择的继任者 Pail Atkins 可能会采取不同的策略。投资者似乎押注美国证券交易委员会不会进一步寻求其上诉，因为他们预计领导层和更广泛的理念将发生变化。

XRP has a valuation problem

XRP 存在估值问题

Although the failure of the SEC to continue its appeal by the end of today certainly could lead to a short-term gain, I'm personally dubious of XRP's long-term value. That's because the value the market is currently assigning to the token seems out of sync with what it can realistically provide in the real world.

尽管 SEC 在今天结束前未能继续上诉肯定会带来短期收益，但我个人对 XRP 的长期价值持怀疑态度。这是因为市场目前赋予代币的价值似乎与其在现实世界中实际提供的价值不同步。

XRP is designed to transform banking by drastically reducing the cost and increasing the speed of transactions between financial institutions. In 2023, legacy systems cost the industry $193 billion in fees. This is the figure that proponents cite to illustrate just how large the opportunity is for XRP. And while the number is impressive, it's entirely misleading.

XRP 旨在通过大幅降低成本并提高金融机构之间的交易速度来实现银行业转型。 2023 年，遗留系统给行业带来了 1,930 亿美元的费用。支持者引用这个数字来说明 XRP 的机会有多大。虽然这个数字令人印象深刻，但它完全具有误导性。

XRP transactions are by their nature extremely cheap. They're orders of magnitude cheaper than the legacy transactions they hope to replace. If this is true, even if XRP captured 100% of the market, the fees collected would be several orders of magnitude smaller than the current $193 billion paid out to legacy systems. In this light, the current $150 billion market capitalization of XRP seems divorced from reality.

XRP 交易本质上非常便宜。它们比他们希望取代的传统交易便宜几个数量级。如果这是真的，即使 XRP 占领了 100% 的市场，收取的费用也将比目前支付给遗留系统的 1930 亿美元小几个数量级。从这个角度来看，XRP 目前 1500 亿美元的市值似乎与现实脱节。

The question at hand

手头的问题

Ok, let's assume I'm wrong, however. Let's assume XRP is able to continue to grow considerably. Can it reach millionaire-maker status? For our purposes let's say it would need to turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million in 30 years. However, $1 million in 30 years is only worth about $300,000 today. A true millionaire maker by today's standards would need to turn our $10,000 into $3.3 million -- a tall order.

好吧，但是我们假设我错了。我们假设 XRP 能够继续大幅增长。它能达到百万富翁制造者的地位吗？出于我们的目的，假设需要在 30 年内将 10,000 美元的投资变成 100 万美元。然而，30年后的100万美元在今天只值30万美元左右。按照今天的标准，一个真正的百万富翁制造者需要将我们的 10,000 美元变成 330 万美元——这是一项艰巨的任务。

That's a 33,000% return over 30, years which works out to an annual rate of 21.3%, more than twice that of the stock market's historical average. If XRP grew at this pace, by 2065 it would have a market cap of $48 trillion, the same as the top 10 largest banks combined (assuming a generous 10% annual growth rate). Do you believe XRP could be worth the combined market caps of the 10 largest banks in the world?

30 年间的回报率为 33,000%，年回报率为 21.3%，是股市历史平均水平的两倍多。如果 XRP 以这种速度增长，到 2065 年，其市值将达到 48 万亿美元，相当于十大银行的总和（假设年增长率高达 10%）。您认为 XRP 的价值相当于全球 10 家最大银行的总市值吗？

Given this, I wouldn't call XRP a millionaire maker. Not just this, but considering its current valuation, I wouldn't recommend it as an investment at all -- not at this price. If you are interested in crypto investing, Bitcoin is a wiser choice.

鉴于此，我不会称 XRP 为百万富翁制造商。不仅如此，考虑到它目前的估值，我根本不会推荐它作为投资——不会以这个价格。如果你对加密货币投资感兴趣，比特币是一个更明智的选择。