XRP（XRP）代幣：百萬富翁製造商還是陷阱？

2020年，XRP的母公司Ripple被美國證券交易委員會（SEC）起訴。監管機構聲稱該公司出售 XRP

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies declined sharply over the past week, largely in response to a hotter-than-expected jobs report.

比特幣和其他主要加密貨幣在過去一周大幅下跌，主要是由於就業報告熱於預期。

Bitcoin fell nearly 10% between Jan. 7 and Jan. 14, while Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin all lost as much or more than the oldest, most valuable coin. XRP (XRP 6.72%), however, managed to gain 3.7% since Jan. 7. Let's take a look at why and then consider whether XRP could be a millionaire maker.

1 月 7 日至 1 月 14 日期間，比特幣下跌了近 10%，而以太坊、Solana 和狗狗幣的損失都與最古老、最有價值的硬幣一樣多或更多。然而，XRP（XRP 6.72%）自 1 月 7 日以來上漲了 3.7%。

A key deadline looms

關鍵最後期限迫在眉睫

In 2020, XRP's parent company, Ripple, was sued by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The regulator claimed that the company sold XRP as an unregistered security, a pretty big no-no. In August 2024, a court ruled mostly in Ripple's favor, approving a $125 million fine when the SEC was originally seeking $2 billion.

2020年，XRP的母公司Ripple被美國證券交易委員會（SEC）起訴。監管機構聲稱該公司將 XRP 作為未註冊的證券出售，這是一個很大的禁忌。 2024 年 8 月，法院做出了對 Ripple 有利的裁決，批准了 1.25 億美元的罰款，而 SEC 最初尋求的是 20 億美元的罰款。

How is this relevant now, though? The SEC appealed the ruling in October but still must present its evidence if an appeal is to move forward. The deadline to do so is today. Under normal circumstances, there would be little reason to believe the SEC wouldn't meet this deadline. However, the regulator is undergoing a key change in leadership brought on by the election of Donald Trump.

但現在這有什麼關係呢？美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 於 10 月對該裁決提出上訴，但如果要繼續上訴，仍必須提供證據。這樣做的最後期限是今天。在正常情況下，沒有理由相信美國證券交易委員會不會在這個最後期限前完成任務。然而，由於唐納德·川普的當選，該監管機構正在經歷領導層的重大變化。

The current chair, Gary Gensler, is stepping down. Gensler has not exactly been a friend to XRP and crypto at large, but Trump's pick for his replacement, Pail Atkins, will likely take a different tack. Investors appear to be betting on the SEC not pursuing its appeal further in anticipation of this change in leadership and broader philosophy.

現任主席加里詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 即將卸任。 Gensler 並不是 XRP 和整個加密貨幣的朋友，但川普選擇的繼任者 Pail Atkins 可能會採取不同的策略。投資者似乎押注美國證券交易委員會不會進一步尋求其上訴，因為他們預計領導層和更廣泛的理念將會改變。

XRP has a valuation problem

XRP 有估值問題

Although the failure of the SEC to continue its appeal by the end of today certainly could lead to a short-term gain, I'm personally dubious of XRP's long-term value. That's because the value the market is currently assigning to the token seems out of sync with what it can realistically provide in the real world.

儘管 SEC 在今天結束前未能繼續上訴肯定會帶來短期收益，但我個人對 XRP 的長期價值持懷疑態度。這是因為市場目前賦予代幣的價值似乎與其在現實世界中實際提供的價值不同步。

XRP is designed to transform banking by drastically reducing the cost and increasing the speed of transactions between financial institutions. In 2023, legacy systems cost the industry $193 billion in fees. This is the figure that proponents cite to illustrate just how large the opportunity is for XRP. And while the number is impressive, it's entirely misleading.

XRP 旨在透過大幅降低成本並提高金融機構之間的交易速度來實現銀行業轉型。 2023 年，遺留系統為產業帶來了 1,930 億美元的費用。支持者引用這個數字來說明 XRP 的機會有多大。雖然這個數字令人印象深刻，但它完全具有誤導性。

XRP transactions are by their nature extremely cheap. They're orders of magnitude cheaper than the legacy transactions they hope to replace. If this is true, even if XRP captured 100% of the market, the fees collected would be several orders of magnitude smaller than the current $193 billion paid out to legacy systems. In this light, the current $150 billion market capitalization of XRP seems divorced from reality.

XRP 交易本質上非常便宜。它們比他們希望取代的傳統交易便宜幾個數量級。如果這是真的，即使 XRP 佔領了 100% 的市場，收取的費用將比目前支付給遺留系統的 1,930 億美元小幾個數量級。從這個角度來看，XRP 目前 1500 億美元的市值似乎與現實脫節。

The question at hand

手邊的問題

Ok, let's assume I'm wrong, however. Let's assume XRP is able to continue to grow considerably. Can it reach millionaire-maker status? For our purposes let's say it would need to turn a $10,000 investment into $1 million in 30 years. However, $1 million in 30 years is only worth about $300,000 today. A true millionaire maker by today's standards would need to turn our $10,000 into $3.3 million -- a tall order.

好吧，但是我們假設我錯了。我們假設 XRP 能夠繼續大幅成長。它能達到百萬富翁製造商的地位嗎？出於我們的目的，假設需要在 30 年內將 10,000 美元的投資變成 100 萬美元。然而，30年後的100萬美元在今天只值30萬美元左右。按照今天的標準，一個真正的百萬富翁製造者需要將我們的 10,000 美元變成 330 萬美元——這是一項艱鉅的任務。

That's a 33,000% return over 30, years which works out to an annual rate of 21.3%, more than twice that of the stock market's historical average. If XRP grew at this pace, by 2065 it would have a market cap of $48 trillion, the same as the top 10 largest banks combined (assuming a generous 10% annual growth rate). Do you believe XRP could be worth the combined market caps of the 10 largest banks in the world?

30 年間的回報率為 33,000%，年回報率為 21.3%，是股市歷史平均的兩倍多。如果 XRP 以這種速度成長，到 2065 年，其市值將達到 48 兆美元，相當於十大銀行的總和（假設年增長率高達 10%）。您認為 XRP 的價值相當於全球 10 家最大銀行的總市值嗎？

Given this, I wouldn't call XRP a millionaire maker. Not just this, but considering its current valuation, I wouldn't recommend it as an investment at all -- not at this price. If you are interested in crypto investing, Bitcoin is a wiser choice.

有鑑於此，我不會稱 XRP 為百萬富翁創造者。不僅如此，考慮到它目前的估值，我根本不會推薦它作為投資——不會以這個價格。如果你對加密貨幣投資感興趣，比特幣是一個更明智的選擇。