上周，由于关税迫在眉睫和宏观不确定性尚未解决，而向上的移动更像是一厢情愿的思维，而不是根本的信心。

该社论来自上周的《评论新闻》一周。订阅每周的新闻通讯，以获取第二个新闻通讯。

Last week, we discussed the question of whether tariffs are priced into the market.

上周，我们讨论了关税是否定价进入市场的问题。

This editorial is from last week’s edition of the Week in Review newsletter. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter to get the editorial the second it’s finished.

该社论来自上周的《评论新闻》一周。订阅每周的新闻通讯，以获取第二个新闻通讯。

Last Week The Question Was: Are Tariffs Priced In?

上周的问题是：关税是否涉及？

Crypto markets are currently performing relatively well, although there is still an air of fear. The most likely explanation for this dynamic is that market participants have priced in certain risks such as tariffs and global tensions, but macroeconomic uncertainty still remains.

尽管仍然有恐惧的气氛，但目前的加密市场目前的表现相对较好。这种动态的最有可能的解释是，市场参与者以某些风险（例如关税和全球紧张局势）定价，但宏观经济不确定性仍然存在。

The fact that markets are doing relatively well now can be attributed to markets pricing in the bad news, which adjusted forward expectations downward. Having taken into account those adjustments, and with most economic indicators still positive, it makes sense that markets can continue on an upward trajectory. However, uncertainty hasn't been fully priced in.

现在，市场表现良好的事实可以归因于坏消息的市场定价，这使人们对前进的期望下降了。考虑到这些调整，并且在大多数经济指标仍然积极的情况下，市场可以继续前进。但是，不确定性尚未完全定价。

First and foremost, next Wednesday’s Liberation Day, the day Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to begin. Will other nations blink, will Trump, how big will the tariffs end up being? All of these add to the uncertainty.

首先是下周三的解放日，特朗普的互惠关税将开始。其他国家会眨眼，特朗普，关税最终会有多大吗？所有这些增加了不确定性。

Next week, I hope the tariff situation is resolved relatively amicably. But if it isn't, one interesting question I’m curious about is this: if the tariffs turn out worse than what market participants have priced in, will traditional U.S. markets suffer more than bitcoin? Typically, bitcoin (and crypto) performs worse, or at best the same, during traditional market drawdowns.

下周，我希望关税情况得到相对友好的解决。但是，如果不是这样，我对此很好奇的一个有趣的问题是：如果关税比市场参与者的价格差，那么美国传统市场会比比特币遭受更大的损失吗？通常，在传统的市场逐渐减少期间，比特币（和加密货币）的性能更糟，或者充其量是一样。

However, some of the people I follow are saying that this time might be different. First of all, bitcoin has corrected harder than U.S. equities, peak drawdown was 30% to 10%, respectively. U.S. markets have seen money withdrawn from America to local markets, which have experienced increases. Further tariff problems, coupled with a belief that U.S. equities are overvalued and locals undervalued, might see this flow out of the U.S. continue or accelerate. Meanwhile, it seems reasonable to assume that bitcoin, a global asset, would be less affected by this. Finally, America is in the midst of tightening, whereas other countries like Germany and China are easing. As a global asset, bitcoin is much better situated to absorb some of that liquidity than U.S. equities.

但是，我遵循的一些人说这次可能有所不同。首先，比特币比美国股票更难校正，峰值下降分别为30％至10％。美国市场已经看到了从美国撤出的钱，这些市场经历了增长。进一步的关税问题，再加上美国股票被高估，当地人被低估的信念可能会使美国的流动继续或加速。同时，假设比特币是一种全球资产，对此的影响似乎很合理。最后，美国正处于收紧之中，而德国和中国等其他国家正在放松。作为全球资产，比特币要比美国股票更好地吸收一些流动性。

All of these points are logical and quite persuasive, but I ultimately disagree that bitcoin will float if U.S. equities tank for the simple fact that, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” as Keynes famously said. I believe markets will act irrationally. If U.S. equities fall, bitcoin falls the same amount or more. Graham Stone said on this week’s Token Narratives that if this happens, “buy bitcoin with both hands.” I concur!

所有这些观点都是合乎逻辑且相当有说服力的，但是我最终不同意，如果美国股票坦克的简单事实，“市场可以保持不理性的时间比您可以保持偿付能力的时间更长”，那么比特币将浮动，正如凯恩斯所说的那样。我相信市场将非理性地采取行动。如果美国股票下降，比特币将下降相同或更多。格雷厄姆·斯通（Graham Stone）在本周的象征叙述中说，如果发生这种情况，“双手购买比特币”。我同意！

That is all short-term talk. In the mid to long-term bitcoin seems exceptionally well positioned for price appreciation. This week was full of bullish news around the theme of companies starting to put bitcoin on their balance sheets.

这都是短期谈话。在长期到长期的比特币似乎在价格上的位置非常好。本周围绕公司开始将比特币放在资产负债表的主题的主题上充满了看涨新闻。

When Saylor first started snapping up BTC via his company, formerly known as Microstrategy, it led to a significant bump in the stock price. Many speculated at the time that eventually, Microstrategy’s success could lead to a new playbook for companies— especially companies with fading relevancy.

当Saylor首次开始通过他的公司（以前称为MicroStrategy）抢购BTC时，这导致了股票价格的巨大涨势。许多人在当时推测，最终，Microstrategy的成功可能会为公司提供新的剧本，尤其是相关性褪色的公司。

We finally might be seeing companies pile into this trade. Metaplanet, a Japanese hotel developer that bought its first bitcoin less than a year ago on April 8, 2024, has seen its stock price soar more than 2,300% since that date. With its latest purchase on Monday, it now holds 3,350 BTC. The CEO posted on Monday on X in Japanese, “Today, the company recorded a record high trading value of 50.4 billion yen. It is ranked 13th in terms of trading value in Japan, surpassing Toyota, which has the highest market capitalization.”

我们终于可能看到公司忙于这项行业。日本酒店开发商Metaplanet不到一年前在2024年4月8日购买了其第一批比特币，其股价自当天以来的股价飙升超过2,300％。周一的最新购买，它现在持有3,350 BTC。首席执行官周一在X上发表了日语，“今天，该公司的高交易价值为504亿日元。在日本的交易价值方面排名第13位，超过了丰田，这是市值最高的丰田。”

On Wednesday, Gamestop announced it is raising $1.3 billion to begin its Bitcoin treasury strategy. It is raising money despite holding $4.76 billion in cash, which mirrors an aggressive, Microstrategy-style playbook. Saylor responded to the announcement by posting a poll on X suggesting Gamestop should buy over $3 billion in Bitcoin to earn BTC legitimacy. Stay classy Saylor!

周三，GameStop宣布将筹集13亿美元，以开始其比特币国库策略。尽管持有47.6亿美元的现金，但它仍在筹集资金，这反映了一本具有侵略性的微型造型剧本。塞勒（Saylor）对这一公告做出了回应，该公告发布了X上的民意调查，表明GameStop应该购买超过30亿美元的比特币以赢得BTC的合法性。保持优雅的Saylor！

Also this week, a French Bitcoin Treasury Company bought 580 BTC, and earlier this month Rumble bought 188.

同样在本周，一家法国比特币财政公司购买了580 BTC，本月初，Rumble购买了188。