上週，由於關稅迫在眉睫和宏觀不確定性尚未解決，而向上的移動更像是一廂情願的思維，而不是根本的信心。

該社論來自上週的《評論新聞》一周。訂閱每週的新聞通訊，以獲取第二個新聞通訊。

Last week, we discussed the question of whether tariffs are priced into the market.

上週，我們討論了關稅是否定價進入市場的問題。

This editorial is from last week’s edition of the Week in Review newsletter. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter to get the editorial the second it’s finished.

該社論來自上週的《評論新聞》一周。訂閱每週的新聞通訊，以獲取第二個新聞通訊。

Last Week The Question Was: Are Tariffs Priced In?

上週的問題是：關稅是否涉及？

Crypto markets are currently performing relatively well, although there is still an air of fear. The most likely explanation for this dynamic is that market participants have priced in certain risks such as tariffs and global tensions, but macroeconomic uncertainty still remains.

儘管仍然有恐懼的氣氛，但目前的加密市場目前的表現相對較好。這種動態的最有可能的解釋是，市場參與者以某些風險（例如關稅和全球緊張局勢）定價，但宏觀經濟不確定性仍然存在。

The fact that markets are doing relatively well now can be attributed to markets pricing in the bad news, which adjusted forward expectations downward. Having taken into account those adjustments, and with most economic indicators still positive, it makes sense that markets can continue on an upward trajectory. However, uncertainty hasn't been fully priced in.

現在，市場表現良好的事實可以歸因於壞消息的市場定價，這使人們對前進的期望下降了。考慮到這些調整，並且在大多數經濟指標仍然積極的情況下，市場可以繼續前進。但是，不確定性尚未完全定價。

First and foremost, next Wednesday’s Liberation Day, the day Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to begin. Will other nations blink, will Trump, how big will the tariffs end up being? All of these add to the uncertainty.

首先是下週三的解放日，特朗普的互惠關稅將開始。其他國家會眨眼，特朗普，關稅最終會有多大嗎？所有這些增加了不確定性。

Next week, I hope the tariff situation is resolved relatively amicably. But if it isn't, one interesting question I’m curious about is this: if the tariffs turn out worse than what market participants have priced in, will traditional U.S. markets suffer more than bitcoin? Typically, bitcoin (and crypto) performs worse, or at best the same, during traditional market drawdowns.

下週，我希望關稅情況得到相對友好的解決。但是，如果不是這樣，我對此很好奇的一個有趣的問題是：如果關稅比市場參與者的價格差，那麼美國傳統市場會比比特幣遭受更大的損失嗎？通常，在傳統的市場逐漸減少期間，比特幣（和加密貨幣）的性能更糟，或者充其量是一樣。

However, some of the people I follow are saying that this time might be different. First of all, bitcoin has corrected harder than U.S. equities, peak drawdown was 30% to 10%, respectively. U.S. markets have seen money withdrawn from America to local markets, which have experienced increases. Further tariff problems, coupled with a belief that U.S. equities are overvalued and locals undervalued, might see this flow out of the U.S. continue or accelerate. Meanwhile, it seems reasonable to assume that bitcoin, a global asset, would be less affected by this. Finally, America is in the midst of tightening, whereas other countries like Germany and China are easing. As a global asset, bitcoin is much better situated to absorb some of that liquidity than U.S. equities.

但是，我遵循的一些人說這次可能有所不同。首先，比特幣比美國股票更難校正，峰值下降分別為30％至10％。美國市場已經看到了從美國撤出的錢，這些市場經歷了增長。進一步的關稅問題，再加上美國股票被高估，當地人被低估的信念可能會使美國的流動繼續或加速。同時，假設比特幣是一種全球資產，對此的影響似乎很合理。最後，美國正處於收緊之中，而德國和中國等其他國家正在放鬆。作為全球資產，比特幣要比美國股票更好地吸收一些流動性。

All of these points are logical and quite persuasive, but I ultimately disagree that bitcoin will float if U.S. equities tank for the simple fact that, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent,” as Keynes famously said. I believe markets will act irrationally. If U.S. equities fall, bitcoin falls the same amount or more. Graham Stone said on this week’s Token Narratives that if this happens, “buy bitcoin with both hands.” I concur!

所有這些觀點都是合乎邏輯且相當有說服力的，但是我最終不同意，如果美國股票坦克的簡單事實，“市場可以保持不理性的時間比您可以保持償付能力的時間更長”，那麼比特幣將浮動，正如凱恩斯所說的那樣。我相信市場將非理性地採取行動。如果美國股票下降，比特幣將下降相同或更多。格雷厄姆·斯通（Graham Stone）在本週的象徵敘述中說，如果發生這種情況，“雙手購買比特幣”。我同意！

That is all short-term talk. In the mid to long-term bitcoin seems exceptionally well positioned for price appreciation. This week was full of bullish news around the theme of companies starting to put bitcoin on their balance sheets.

這都是短期談話。在長期到長期的比特幣似乎在價格上的位置非常好。本周圍繞公司開始將比特幣放在資產負債表的主題的主題上充滿了看漲新聞。

When Saylor first started snapping up BTC via his company, formerly known as Microstrategy, it led to a significant bump in the stock price. Many speculated at the time that eventually, Microstrategy’s success could lead to a new playbook for companies— especially companies with fading relevancy.

當Saylor首次開始通過他的公司（以前稱為MicroStrategy）搶購BTC時，這導致了股票價格的巨大漲勢。許多人在當時推測，最終，Microstrategy的成功可能會為公司提供新的劇本，尤其是相關性褪色的公司。

We finally might be seeing companies pile into this trade. Metaplanet, a Japanese hotel developer that bought its first bitcoin less than a year ago on April 8, 2024, has seen its stock price soar more than 2,300% since that date. With its latest purchase on Monday, it now holds 3,350 BTC. The CEO posted on Monday on X in Japanese, “Today, the company recorded a record high trading value of 50.4 billion yen. It is ranked 13th in terms of trading value in Japan, surpassing Toyota, which has the highest market capitalization.”

我們終於可能看到公司忙於這項行業。日本酒店開發商Metaplanet不到一年前在2024年4月8日購買了其第一批比特幣，其股價自當天以來的股價飆升超過2,300％。週一的最新購買，它現在持有3,350 BTC。首席執行官週一在X上發表了日語，“今天，該公司的高交易價值為504億日元。在日本的交易價值方面排名第13位，超過了豐田，這是市值最高的豐田。”

On Wednesday, Gamestop announced it is raising $1.3 billion to begin its Bitcoin treasury strategy. It is raising money despite holding $4.76 billion in cash, which mirrors an aggressive, Microstrategy-style playbook. Saylor responded to the announcement by posting a poll on X suggesting Gamestop should buy over $3 billion in Bitcoin to earn BTC legitimacy. Stay classy Saylor!

週三，GameStop宣布將籌集13億美元，以開始其比特幣國庫策略。儘管持有47.6億美元的現金，但它仍在籌集資金，這反映了一本具有侵略性的微型造型劇本。塞勒（Saylor）對這一公告做出了回應，該公告發布了X上的民意調查，表明GameStop應該購買超過30億美元的比特幣以贏得BTC的合法性。保持優雅的Saylor！

Also this week, a French Bitcoin Treasury Company bought 580 BTC, and earlier this month Rumble bought 188.

同樣在本週，一家法國比特幣財政公司購買了580 BTC，本月初，Rumble購買了188。