这是比特币和加密货币作为可投资资产类别的重要一周

比特币上涨了约5％，上周Coindesk 20指数上升了约6％。在传统资产似乎损失的景观中

Global macroeconomic uncertainty has continued to escalate, with traditional assets showing signs of fragility and unpredictability. However, in the midst of this market turbulence, digital assets have held steady with moderate volatility, offering an intriguing counterpoint to the conventional wisdom.

全球宏观经济的不确定性继续升级，传统资产显示出脆弱性和不可预测性的迹象。但是，在这个市场动荡的过程中，数字资产以中等的波动性保持稳定，这对传统观点提供了令人着迷的对立面。

As usual, there has been an blurring of bitcoin's 'store of value' claim with 'flight-to-quality' and 'safe haven' in the commentary. We will keep pounding the drum on the difference between 'flight-to-quality'/'safe haven' and 'store of value' assets. Bitcoin, still in its adolescence and with limited access to traditional liquidity pools (i.e., banks), shouldn't be expected to function as a mature flight-to-quality or safe haven asset during extreme volatility episodes. Similarly, there are things I don't expect or enlist my teenage children to do.

像往常一样，在评论中，比特币的“价值存储”声明和“质量飞行”和“避风港”的模糊。我们将继续对“飞行质量”/“避风港”和“价值存储”资产之间的区别进行敲打。比特币仍处于青春期，并且在极端波动性剧集中，不应期望获得传统流动性池（即银行）的访问权限，即在极端波动性的范围内起到成熟的航班或避风港资产的作用。同样，有些事情我不希望或招募我的十几岁的孩子做。

Seeing gold's outperformance vs. bitcoin this year supports this argument. Gold has better access to traditional finance, is perceived to be limited in the supply, and has a mature network. But does it have adoption momentum? Is it an asset of the future? While gold glitters in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, bitcoin offers something different - a technological evolution in the concept of money itself, with adoption curves that continue to remind us that we're still early in its lifecycle.

看到金与比特币今年的表现优于比特币，这支持了这一论点。黄金可以更好地获得传统金融，被认为是供应量有限的，并且具有成熟的网络。但是它有采用动力吗？这是未来的资产吗？尽管黄金在地缘政治和经济不确定性时期闪闪发光，但比特币提供了一些不同的东西 - 货币本身概念的技术演变，采用曲线继续提醒我们我们仍在其生命周期中。

The University of Michigan Consumer Survey capped off the week with two powerful data points that support bitcoin's price trajectory: the highest expectations for 1-year inflation since 1981(!) and elevated expectations for unemployment.

密歇根大学的消费者调查限于两个强大的数据点，这些数据点支持比特币的价格轨迹：自1981年以来对1年通货膨胀的最高期望（！）（！）对失业率提高。

We favor anchoring bitcoin's demand to expected real interest rates - the difference between expected nominal rates and inflation expectations. When real rates are expected to rise, bitcoin faces headwinds. Conversely, when real rates are expected to fall due to higher inflation and potential rate cuts (hello, rising unemployment expectations), bitcoin tends to benefit. The Michigan survey numbers provide a surprisingly clear north star for bitcoin accumulation: 1) higher expected inflation and 2) unemployment expectations that could prompt Fed easing. Lower nominal rates, higher inflation.

我们赞成锚定比特币对预期实际利率的需求 - 预期名义利率和通货膨胀预期之间的差异。当预计实际利率上升时，比特币会面临逆风。相反，当预计由于通货膨胀率较高和降低潜在利率（您好，失业率上升）而预计实际费率下降时，比特币往往会受益。密歇根州的调查数字为比特币积累提供了令人惊讶的清晰北极星：1）较高的预期通货膨胀和2）可能促使美联储缓解的失业期望。较低的名义率，较高的通货膨胀。

This framework helps explain bitcoin's impressive performance during previous easing cycles and suggests we could be entering a similarly favorable environment. The divergence between consumer inflation expectations and the Fed's more sanguine outlook bears watching closely - historically, the consumer has often proven more prescient than the central bank.

该框架有助于解释比特币在以前的缓解周期中的令人印象深刻的性能，并建议我们进入一个同样有利的环境。消费者通货膨胀期望与美联储更加乐观的前景熊之间的差异仔细观察 - 从历史上看，消费者通常比中央银行更具先见之明。

The potential for a broader rally in the crypto market suggests that diversification within the space could once again prove rewarding, especially if regulatory tailwinds continue to strengthen. The tide that lifts bitcoin rarely leaves other quality projects stranded.

在加密市场中进行更广泛的集会的潜力表明，该空间内的多元化可能再次获得回报，尤其是在监管尾风继续加强的情况下。举起比特币的潮流很少会使其他优质项目滞留。