這是比特幣和加密貨幣作為可投資資產類別的重要一周

比特幣上漲了約5％，上週Coindesk 20指數上升了約6％。在傳統資產似乎損失的景觀中

Global macroeconomic uncertainty has continued to escalate, with traditional assets showing signs of fragility and unpredictability. However, in the midst of this market turbulence, digital assets have held steady with moderate volatility, offering an intriguing counterpoint to the conventional wisdom.

全球宏觀經濟的不確定性繼續升級，傳統資產顯示出脆弱性和不可預測性的跡象。但是，在這個市場動蕩的過程中，數字資產以中等的波動性保持穩定，這對傳統觀點提供了令人著迷的對立面。

As usual, there has been an blurring of bitcoin's 'store of value' claim with 'flight-to-quality' and 'safe haven' in the commentary. We will keep pounding the drum on the difference between 'flight-to-quality'/'safe haven' and 'store of value' assets. Bitcoin, still in its adolescence and with limited access to traditional liquidity pools (i.e., banks), shouldn't be expected to function as a mature flight-to-quality or safe haven asset during extreme volatility episodes. Similarly, there are things I don't expect or enlist my teenage children to do.

像往常一樣，在評論中，比特幣的“價值存儲”聲明和“質量飛行”和“避風港”的模糊。我們將繼續對“飛行質量”/“避風港”和“價值存儲”資產之間的區別進行敲打。比特幣仍處於青春期，並且在極端波動性劇集中，不應期望獲得傳統流動性池（即銀行）的訪問權限，即在極端波動性的範圍內起到成熟的航班或避風港資產的作用。同樣，有些事情我不希望或招募我的十幾歲的孩子做。

Seeing gold's outperformance vs. bitcoin this year supports this argument. Gold has better access to traditional finance, is perceived to be limited in the supply, and has a mature network. But does it have adoption momentum? Is it an asset of the future? While gold glitters in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, bitcoin offers something different - a technological evolution in the concept of money itself, with adoption curves that continue to remind us that we're still early in its lifecycle.

看到金與比特幣今年的表現優於比特幣，這支持了這一論點。黃金可以更好地獲得傳統金融，被認為是供應量有限的，並且具有成熟的網絡。但是它有採用動力嗎？這是未來的資產嗎？儘管黃金在地緣政治和經濟不確定性時期閃閃發光，但比特幣提供了一些不同的東西 - 貨幣本身概念的技術演變，採用曲線繼續提醒我們我們仍在其生命週期中。

The University of Michigan Consumer Survey capped off the week with two powerful data points that support bitcoin's price trajectory: the highest expectations for 1-year inflation since 1981(!) and elevated expectations for unemployment.

密歇根大學的消費者調查限於兩個強大的數據點，這些數據點支持比特幣的價格軌跡：自1981年以來對1年通貨膨脹的最高期望（！）（！）對失業率提高。

We favor anchoring bitcoin's demand to expected real interest rates - the difference between expected nominal rates and inflation expectations. When real rates are expected to rise, bitcoin faces headwinds. Conversely, when real rates are expected to fall due to higher inflation and potential rate cuts (hello, rising unemployment expectations), bitcoin tends to benefit. The Michigan survey numbers provide a surprisingly clear north star for bitcoin accumulation: 1) higher expected inflation and 2) unemployment expectations that could prompt Fed easing. Lower nominal rates, higher inflation.

我們贊成錨定比特幣對預期實際利率的需求 - 預期名義利率和通貨膨脹預期之間的差異。當預計實際利率上升時，比特幣會面臨逆風。相反，當預計由於通貨膨脹率較高和降低潛在利率（您好，失業率上升）而預計實際費率下降時，比特幣往往會受益。密歇根州的調查數字為比特幣積累提供了令人驚訝的清晰北極星：1）較高的預期通貨膨脹和2）可能促使美聯儲緩解的失業期望。較低的名義率，較高的通貨膨脹。

This framework helps explain bitcoin's impressive performance during previous easing cycles and suggests we could be entering a similarly favorable environment. The divergence between consumer inflation expectations and the Fed's more sanguine outlook bears watching closely - historically, the consumer has often proven more prescient than the central bank.

該框架有助於解釋比特幣在以前的緩解週期中的令人印象深刻的性能，並建議我們進入一個同樣有利的環境。消費者通貨膨脹期望與美聯儲更加樂觀的前景熊之間的差異仔細觀察 - 從歷史上看，消費者通常比中央銀行更具先見之明。

The potential for a broader rally in the crypto market suggests that diversification within the space could once again prove rewarding, especially if regulatory tailwinds continue to strengthen. The tide that lifts bitcoin rarely leaves other quality projects stranded.

在加密市場中進行更廣泛的集會的潛力表明，該空間內的多元化可能再次獲得回報，尤其是在監管尾風繼續加強的情況下。舉起比特幣的潮流很少會使其他優質項目滯留。