經濟衰退警報器正在吹噓 - 比特幣的BTC/USD Defiant Rally要求投資者問：這是數字黃金2.0嗎？

華爾街的經濟衰退警報器正在吹噓 - 隨著傳統市場的影響，比特幣的BTC/USD Defiant Rally有投資者問：這是數字黃金2.0嗎？

Wall Street's recession sirens are blaring — and as traditional markets brace for impact, Bitcoin's BTC/USD defiant rally has investors asking: is this digital gold 2.0 or just fool's gold with better marketing?

華爾街的經濟衰退警報器正在吹噓 - 隨著傳統市場的影響力，比特幣的BTC/USD Defiant Rally有投資者問：這是數字黃金2.0還是只是愚人的黃金，而有更好的營銷？

Recession probability forecasts aren't just creeping up — they're sprinting. In the span of days, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) has hiked its odds of a U.S. recession from 40% to 60%, S&P Global adjusted its forecast from 25% to 35%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) now pencils in a 35%–40% chance, and HSBC Holdings plc (LON:HSBC) also upped its probability to the 35%–40% range.

衰退概率預測不僅僅是爬行 - 它們正在衝刺。在幾天的時間裡，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase＆Co）（NYSE：JPM）將美國經濟衰退的機率從40％提高到60％，標準普爾全球將其預測從25％調整到35％至35％，Goldman Sachs（NYSE：GS：GS）現在以35％–40％的機會和HSBC HESBC（lone and pls）（lon：uns pls and pls pls）（lon：uns pls pls pls pls and pls pls pls） 35％–40％的範圍。

"There can be no doubt that fears of a U.S. recession are intensifying," cautions James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet. "Economic growth is forecast to stall at anywhere between 0.1% and 1%, and many believe that these risks are already priced into equities, but I am not so sure that we have seen the bottom yet."

“毫無疑問，對美國衰退的恐懼正在加劇，”團結錢包的首席運營官詹姆斯·托萊達諾（James Toledano）警告說。 “預計經濟增長會停滯在0.1％到1％之間，許多人認為這些風險已經定價為股票，但我不確定我們已經看到了底層。”

For investors looking to position tactically around a recession scenario, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) or the Direxion Daily Total Bond Market Bear 1X Shares (SAGG) could offer hedges if equities and bonds take a deep plunge. On the flip side, safe-haven sectors like utilities and staples — accessible via the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) or the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) — may see relative outperformance in a pessimistic market climate.

對於希望在經濟衰退方案進行戰術定位的投資者，Direxion Daily S＆P 500 Bear 3X股票（SPXS）或Direxion Daily Daily Daily Bond Market Market Bear 1X股票（SAGG）如果股票和債券進行深度投資，則可以提供樹籬。另一方面，公用事業和主食等安全部門 - 可以通過公用事業選擇SPDR ETF（XLU）或消費者主食SELECT SELECTER SPDR FUND（XLP）訪問 - 在悲觀的市場環境中可能會表現出相對超越的表現。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been showing some real swagger — up over 25% in six months and hovering near the $86,000 mark.

同時，比特幣一直表現出一些真正的招搖 - 六個月內增長了25％，徘徊在86,000美元的左右。

"Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized asset grows, especially as traditional markets like the Dow and S&P 500 face volatility," adds Toledano. "While Trump's policies have introduced significant macroeconomic uncertainty, they may paradoxically be fueling Bitcoin's recent rise — though the risks remain elevated for all markets, including crypto."

托萊達諾補充說：“比特幣作為分散資產的吸引力增長，尤其是隨著道瓊斯指數和標準普爾500指數的傳統市場的興趣。” “儘管特朗普的政策引入了重大的宏觀經濟不確定性，但它們可能矛盾地加劇了比特幣最近的增長 - 儘管包括加密貨幣在內的所有市場的風險仍然有所提高。”

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

使用Benzinga Pro創建的圖表

Still, if a deep recession hits, will retail investors continue to HODL or will the thrill give way to fear?

儘管如此，如果經濟衰退的深度衰退，散戶投資者會繼續霍德（Hodl）還是刺激讓位？

For those betting that crypto's momentum holds, the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) or the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) offer entry points to ride the wave without having to personally hold digital wallets.

對於那些押注加密貨幣的動力，Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF（WGMI）或Proshares比特幣策略ETF（BITO）提供了進入波浪的入口點，而無需親自持有數字錢包。

As recession odds surge and markets wobble, Bitcoin stands out as a bold bet — but as always, volatility can cut both ways.

隨著經濟衰退的賠率激增和市場搖擺不定，比特幣是一個大膽的賭注 - 但與往常一樣，波動率可以減少兩種方式。

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