经济衰退警报器正在吹嘘 - 比特币的BTC/USD Defiant Rally要求投资者问：这是数字黄金2.0吗？

华尔街的经济衰退警报器正在吹嘘 - 随着传统市场的影响，比特币的BTC/USD Defiant Rally有投资者问：这是数字黄金2.0吗？

Wall Street's recession sirens are blaring — and as traditional markets brace for impact, Bitcoin's BTC/USD defiant rally has investors asking: is this digital gold 2.0 or just fool's gold with better marketing?

华尔街的经济衰退警报器正在吹嘘 - 随着传统市场的影响力，比特币的BTC/USD Defiant Rally有投资者问：这是数字黄金2.0还是只是愚人的黄金，而有更好的营销？

Recession probability forecasts aren't just creeping up — they're sprinting. In the span of days, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) has hiked its odds of a U.S. recession from 40% to 60%, S&P Global adjusted its forecast from 25% to 35%, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) now pencils in a 35%–40% chance, and HSBC Holdings plc (LON:HSBC) also upped its probability to the 35%–40% range.

衰退概率预测不仅仅是爬行 - 它们正在冲刺。在几天的时间里，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase＆Co）（NYSE：JPM）将美国经济衰退的几率从40％提高到60％，标准普尔全球将其预测从25％提高到35％，高盛（NYSE：GS：GS），现在以35％的机会和hsbc combc（lons and pls and pls pls）（nyse：gs）pens plime（nyse：gs）poll： 35％–40％范围。

"There can be no doubt that fears of a U.S. recession are intensifying," cautions James Toledano, COO of Unity Wallet. "Economic growth is forecast to stall at anywhere between 0.1% and 1%, and many believe that these risks are already priced into equities, but I am not so sure that we have seen the bottom yet."

“毫无疑问，对美国衰退的恐惧正在加剧，”团结钱包的首席运营官詹姆斯·托莱达诺（James Toledano）警告说。 “预计经济增长会停滞在0.1％到1％之间，许多人认为这些风险已经定价为股票，但我不确定我们已经看到了底层。”

For investors looking to position tactically around a recession scenario, the Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) or the Direxion Daily Total Bond Market Bear 1X Shares (SAGG) could offer hedges if equities and bonds take a deep plunge. On the flip side, safe-haven sectors like utilities and staples — accessible via the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) or the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) — may see relative outperformance in a pessimistic market climate.

对于希望在经济衰退方案进行战术定位的投资者，Direxion Daily S＆P 500 Bear 3X股票（SPXS）或Direxion Daily Daily Daily Bond Market Market Bear 1X股票（SAGG）如果股票和债券进行深度投资，则可以提供树篱。另一方面，公用事业和主食等安全部门 - 可以通过公用事业选择SPDR ETF（XLU）或消费者主食SELECT SELECTER SPDR FUND（XLP）访问 - 在悲观的市场环境中可能会表现出相对超越的表现。

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been showing some real swagger — up over 25% in six months and hovering near the $86,000 mark.

同时，比特币一直表现出一些真正的招摇 - 六个月内增长了25％，徘徊在86,000美元的左右。

"Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized asset grows, especially as traditional markets like the Dow and S&P 500 face volatility," adds Toledano. "While Trump's policies have introduced significant macroeconomic uncertainty, they may paradoxically be fueling Bitcoin's recent rise — though the risks remain elevated for all markets, including crypto."

托莱达诺补充说：“比特币作为分散资产的吸引力增长，尤其是随着道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数的传统市场的兴趣。” “尽管特朗普的政策引入了重大的宏观经济不确定性，但它们可能矛盾地加剧了比特币最近的增长 - 尽管包括加密货币在内的所有市场的风险仍然有所提高。”

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

使用Benzinga Pro创建的图表

Still, if a deep recession hits, will retail investors continue to HODL or will the thrill give way to fear?

尽管如此，如果经济衰退的深度衰退，散户投资者会继续霍德（Hodl）还是刺激让位？

For those betting that crypto's momentum holds, the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) or the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) offer entry points to ride the wave without having to personally hold digital wallets.

对于那些押注加密货币的动力，Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF（WGMI）或Proshares比特币策略ETF（BITO）提供了进入波浪的入口点，而无需亲自持有数字钱包。

As recession odds surge and markets wobble, Bitcoin stands out as a bold bet — but as always, volatility can cut both ways.

随着经济衰退的赔率激增和市场摇摆不定，比特币是一个大胆的赌注 - 但与往常一样，波动率可以减少两种方式。

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