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自我们三月份上一篇 memecoin 文章以来,该行业的总市场规模和市场份额持续增长,没有明显的停滞迹象。
Author: hyphin, On Chain Times
作者:hyphin、链上时代
Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou
Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou
1. Introduction
一、简介
Since our last memecoin article in March, the industry’s total market size and market share have continued to grow with no clear signs of stagnation. It is undoubtedly the fastest horse on the track.
自我们三月份上一篇 memecoin 文章以来,该行业的总市场规模和市场份额持续增长,没有明显的停滞迹象。毫无疑问,它是赛道上跑得最快的马。
This phenomenon can be attributed to the virality of social media (its inherent nature), extremely low barriers to entry, and the constant emergence of fresh narratives that attract speculators, although many (if not most) fail to retain meaningful attention for the long term. Nevertheless, market participants have become accustomed to this, often jumping in and out of profitable short-term trends, taking advantage of momentum to gain gains, while remaining loyal to high-conviction bets and making them more durable. Although some people are reluctant to admit it, in the current market environment, long-standing memes that have been well-tested by the market are less likely to die than assets that are merely impression-driven and do not provide any substantive value (limited to money transfer).
这种现象可归因于社交媒体的病毒式传播(其固有本质)、极低的进入门槛以及吸引投机者的新鲜叙事的不断出现,尽管许多(如果不是大多数)未能长期保持有意义的关注。尽管如此,市场参与者已经习惯了这一点,经常在有利可图的短期趋势中跳进跳出,利用势头获得收益,同时保持忠诚于高信念的押注并使它们更加持久。尽管有些人不愿意承认,但在当前的市场环境下,经过市场充分检验的长期存在的表情包,比那些仅仅靠印象驱动、不提供任何实质性价值的资产(有限)更不容易消亡。到汇款)。
While Solana may not be the only contributor to these massive token total market caps, the majority of activity in the space does occur within the trenches of its on-chain ecosystem. For this reason, this article will continue to focus on that chain in an attempt to provide a global picture.
虽然 Solana 可能不是这些巨大代币总市值的唯一贡献者,但该领域的大部分活动确实发生在其链上生态系统的内部。因此,本文将继续关注该链,试图提供全球概况。
2. Tribute to Pump
2.向泵致敬
With the creation of pump.fun, a Solana native token incubation platform, the local market dynamics have undergone a major shift. Interacting with speculative tokens has become easier, cheaper, and safer (from a security perspective). Through a user-friendly interface, standardized token deployment in a controlled environment allows anyone to create new tokens based on common configurations, eliminating the risk of potential abuse by malicious actors hidden in smart contracts. This really only requires some creative input from the deployer, no technical knowledge required. Abstract away all the complexity to focus on what really matters - speculation at scale.
随着 Solana 原生代币孵化平台 Pump.fun 的创建,当地市场动态发生了重大转变。与投机代币的交互变得更容易、更便宜、更安全(从安全角度来看)。通过用户友好的界面,受控环境中的标准化代币部署允许任何人基于通用配置创建新代币,从而消除隐藏在智能合约中的恶意行为者潜在滥用的风险。这实际上只需要部署者的一些创造性输入,不需要任何技术知识。抽象出所有的复杂性,专注于真正重要的事情——大规模的猜测。
When a tokenized meme is created, it can be traded directly on the platform’s internal market and automatically deployed to Raydium once it reaches a market cap of approximately $69,000. However, most creations fail to reach this threshold and are never released to the market.
当创建代币化 meme 时,它可以直接在平台的内部市场上进行交易,并在其市值达到约 69,000 美元时自动部署到 Raydium。然而,大多数创作未能达到这个门槛,因此从未投放市场。
Roughly one in every 100 tokens “graduates” from pump.fun due to massive saturation and limited liquidity, among other reasons beyond the scope of this article. Those who step into the ring must present something interesting and shockingly unique to get noticed by the warriors in the trenches. Despite these difficulties, the protocol has quickly established itself as a veritable gateway for trading micro-cap tokens and launching new ones, quickly surpassing all other competitors in the space.
由于大量饱和和有限的流动性以及超出本文范围的其他原因,大约每 100 个代币中就有一个从 Pump.fun“毕业”。那些踏入擂台的人必须呈现出一些有趣且令人震惊的独特东西,才能引起战壕里的战士们的注意。尽管存在这些困难,该协议很快就成为了名副其实的微型市值代币交易和推出新代币的门户,并迅速超越了该领域的所有其他竞争对手。
So far, the deployment dominance over other alternatives has reached a staggering 71.9%, demonstrating the app’s widespread popularity and far-reaching influence. The recent momentum has rapidly made it mainstream, with many new users from TikTok joining in with their ambitions to make it bigger and fuel the fire.
到目前为止,相对于其他替代方案的部署优势已达到惊人的71.9%,显示出该应用程序的广泛流行度和深远影响。最近的势头迅速使其成为主流,许多来自 TikTok 的新用户加入进来,他们的野心是让它变得更大并火上浇油。
3. All roads lead to Raydium
3.条条大路通Raydium
Regardless of whether it is a secret release, pump.fun release or pre-sale tokens, the vast majority of meme coin liquidity pools come from Raydium. The influx of a large number of memes into the market has increased its market share, and decentralized exchanges account for a considerable proportion of Solana's current on-chain transaction volume.
无论是秘密发行、pump.fun发行还是预售代币,绝大多数meme币流动性池都来自Raydium。大量表情包的涌入市场增加了其市场份额,去中心化交易所在 Solana 目前的链上交易量中占据了相当大的比例。
In the gold rush, those who sell shovels to speculators often reap the most. This analogy applies to the situation at hand. Regardless of how well the meme coins perform, the platforms that facilitate trading activity will benefit greatly from the volume generated by increasing speculative activity. Anecdotal evidence and common sense suggest that only a few tokens gain traction, and the rest are destined to fade into obscurity. This view can be confirmed or refuted simply by looking at the market capitalization distribution of all existing trading pairs.
在淘金热中,那些向投机者出售铲子的人往往收获最多。这个类比适用于当前的情况。无论模因币的表现如何,促进交易活动的平台都将从投机活动增加所产生的交易量中受益匪浅。轶事证据和常识表明,只有少数代币获得关注,其余的注定会消失。只需查看所有现有交易对的市值分布即可证实或反驳这一观点。
Distinguishing between memes and non-memes on a larger scale is quite difficult due to the lack of effective labeling methods by data providers. After careful consideration, the approach used to curate a comprehensive dataset is to collect information on all Raydium liquidity pools with non-zero liquidity (as of November 25, 2024), excluding official token lists and legitimate projects in Coingecko. The remaining 493,203 pools contain 474,161 unique address tokens and will serve as the basis for the analysis in this section.
由于数据提供者缺乏有效的标记方法,在更大范围内区分模因和非模因是相当困难的。经过仔细考虑,用于整理综合数据集的方法是收集所有非零流动性的 Raydium 流动性池的信息(截至 2024 年 11 月 25 日),不包括官方代币列表和 Coingecko 的合法项目。其余 493,203 个池包含 474,161 个唯一地址代币,将作为本节分析的基础。
Most tokens, with even very small amounts of activity at any one point in their life, tend to be in the $100k to $10k range, with clear peaks in the early and mid-terms. It is clear that a gradually smoothing downward tail has formed in the chart - highlighting a small number of tokens with high valuations, which is expected as it is challenging to maintain a modest market cap in such an attention environment. While this example encompasses the entire dataset, it is also worth exploring potential structural distribution differences between tokens originating from pump.fun and those deployed directly
大多数代币,即使在其生命周期中的任何一个阶段的活动量非常小,也往往在 10 万美元到 1 万美元的范围内,在早期和中期有明显的峰值。很明显,图表中已经形成了逐渐平滑的向下尾部 - 突出显示了少数具有高估值的代币,这是预期的,因为在这样的关注环境下保持适度的市值具有挑战性。虽然此示例包含整个数据集,但也值得探索源自 Pump.fun 的代币与直接部署的代币之间潜在的结构分布差异
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