特朗普的关税：对美国经济的冒险赌注

这种现象结合了经济停滞和价格上涨，回忆起1970年代的危机。如今，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的新关税政策重新点燃了人们担心重返那个时代，当时增长处于停滞状态，购买力正在迅速侵蚀。

The American economy is currently undergoing a turbulent phase, juggling the persistent issue of inflation with a marked slowdown in growth. This combination has brought a long-forgotten specter to the forefront: stagflation. The phenomenon, which bundles economic stagnation with a rapid decline in purchasing power, evokes memories of the crises that unfolded in the 1970s. Today, Donald Trump's new tariff policies are fanning fears of a return to that era, when growth stalled and purchasing power eroded rapidly.

美国经济目前正处于动荡的阶段，这涉及到通货膨胀的持续问题，并显着增长。这种组合使长期以来的幽灵走到了最前沿：停滞。这种现象将经济停滞束缚而束缚，购买力迅速下降，唤起了人们对1970年代危机的记忆。如今，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的新关税政策却倾向于担心重返那个时代，当时成长停滞不前，购买力迅速侵蚀。

The president's decision to impose heavy taxes on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada raises many questions about its real effects on the economy. As the Federal Reserve is pressed into a corner, markets are faltering, and businesses are becoming concerned about the repercussions on their profitability.

总统决定向中国，墨西哥和加拿大进口进口的重税提出了许多有关其对经济影响的实际影响的问题。随着美联储被压入角落，市场正在步履蹒跚，企业开始关注其盈利能力的影响。

Trump’s tariffs: a risky bet on the American economy

特朗普的关税：对美国经济的冒险赌注

The Trump administration has chosen to stiffen its stance on imports, with increases in customs tariffs hitting several major trading partners. The president announced a 25 % increase on products from Mexico and Canada, as well as a doubling of the customs duties on Chinese imports, now raised to 20 %. "We will finally restore trade balance and protect our domestic industries," he stated during a press conference at the White House.

特朗普政府选择了对进口的立场，随着海关关税的提高达到了几个主要的贸易伙伴。总统宣布，从墨西哥和加拿大的产品增加了25％，以及中国进口的海关关税增加一倍，现在提高到20％。他在白宫举行的新闻发布会上说：“我们最终将恢复贸易平衡并保护我们的家庭产业。”

On the ground, household consumption fell in January, marking its steepest decline in nearly four years, according to a report from the Department of Commerce. At the same time, producer prices have risen, further fueling inflation. Companies are starting to sound the alarm: Target, one of the largest retailers in the country, has warned that its margins will be "significantly impacted" by the rise in import costs. In the manufacturing sector, the ISM index shows that industrial activity is slowing down, with a drop in new orders and a surge in raw material costs.

根据商务部的一份报告，在现场，一月份的家庭消费在一月份下降，标志着其近四年来最大的下降。同时，生产商价格上涨，进一步加油通货膨胀。公司开始发出警报：Target是该国最大的零售商之一，他警告说，进口成本的上升将对其利润率受到重大影响。在制造业中，ISM指数表明工业活动正在放缓，新订单下降和原材料成本激增。

Markets under pressure : between uncertainty and flight to safe havens

压力下的市场：在不确定性和飞往避风港的飞行之间

As the effects of tariffs begin to weigh on the real economy, the financial markets are not immune. Since the beginning of March, the Dow Jones has lost 4.5 %, erasing the gains achieved after Trump's reelection last November. This downward movement reflects the growing distrust of investors, who fear that the American economy may become trapped in a negative spiral of inflation and stagnation. "We are witnessing a collapse in consumer confidence and a sharp rise in uncertainty," observes Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide.

随着关税的影响开始对真实经济的影响，金融市场没有免疫力。自3月初以来，道琼斯琼斯（Dow Jones）损失了4.5％，删除了特朗普去年11月连任后取得的收益。这种下行的运动反映了投资者日益增长的不信任，他们担心美国经济可能会陷入通货膨胀和停滞的负面螺旋中。全国首席策略师马克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）观察到：“我们目睹了消费者信心的崩溃和不确定性的急剧上升。”

Investors are reacting and are turning massively to government bonds, resulting in a drop in the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 4.2 %. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is historically a precursor signal of recession. Meanwhile, other alternative assets are benefiting from this instability: gold and bitcoin are both rising, confirming their status as safe havens in times of crisis.

投资者正在做出反应，并正在大规模转向政府债券，从而导致10年财政部的收益率下降至4.2％。这种现象被称为倒的产量曲线，历史上是经济衰退的前体信号。同时，其他替代资产从这种不稳定中受益：黄金和比特币都在上升，证实了他们在危机时期的避风港地位。

Thus, the question is no longer whether the economy will slow down, but rather at what speed and with what intensity.

因此，问题不再是经济是否会放慢脚步，而是以什么速度和强度下降。

The acceleration of inflation combined with a slowdown in growth places the Federal Reserve in a strategic deadlock. Should it lower its rates to restart activity, risking exacerbating inflation? Or conversely, maintain them at a high level, potentially worsening economic slowdown? A delicate decision that recalls the difficult choices of the 1970s when the Fed ultimately sacrificed growth to break inflation. In the meantime, businesses, investors, and consumers remain suspended over the next economic indicators. If stagflation were to become established, it could mark a turning point in American monetary and fiscal policy. But beyond the United States, this uncertainty could well spread to global markets, creating a new cycle of instability.

通货膨胀的加速与增长的放缓相结合，美联储陷入了战略僵局。它是否应该降低重新启动活动的速度，风险加剧通货膨胀？还是相反，将它们保持在高水平，可能会加剧经济放缓？一个微妙的决定让人想起了1970年代的艰难选择，当时美联储最终牺牲了增长以打破通货膨胀。同时，企业，投资者和消费者在下一个经济指标上仍被暂停。如果要建立滞水，它可能标志着美国货币和财政政策的转折点。但是，除了美国以外，这种不确定性很可能传播到全球市场，从而创造了新的不稳定周期。

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