特朗普的關稅：對美國經濟的冒險賭注

這種現象結合了經濟停滯和價格上漲，回憶起1970年代的危機。如今，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的新關稅政策重新點燃了人們擔心重返那個時代，當時增長處於停滯狀態，購買力正在迅速侵蝕。

The American economy is currently undergoing a turbulent phase, juggling the persistent issue of inflation with a marked slowdown in growth. This combination has brought a long-forgotten specter to the forefront: stagflation. The phenomenon, which bundles economic stagnation with a rapid decline in purchasing power, evokes memories of the crises that unfolded in the 1970s. Today, Donald Trump's new tariff policies are fanning fears of a return to that era, when growth stalled and purchasing power eroded rapidly.

美國經濟目前正處於動蕩的階段，這涉及到通貨膨脹的持續問題，並顯著增長。這種組合使長期以來的幽靈走到了最前沿：停滯。這種現象將經濟停滯束縛而束縛，購買力迅速下降，喚起了人們對1970年代危機的記憶。如今，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的新關稅政策卻傾向於擔心重返那個時代，當時成長停滯不前，購買力迅速侵蝕。

The president's decision to impose heavy taxes on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada raises many questions about its real effects on the economy. As the Federal Reserve is pressed into a corner, markets are faltering, and businesses are becoming concerned about the repercussions on their profitability.

總統決定向中國，墨西哥和加拿大進口進口的重稅提出了許多有關其對經濟影響的實際影響的問題。隨著美聯儲被壓入角落，市場正在步履蹣跚，企業開始關注其盈利能力的影響。

Trump’s tariffs: a risky bet on the American economy

特朗普的關稅：對美國經濟的冒險賭注

The Trump administration has chosen to stiffen its stance on imports, with increases in customs tariffs hitting several major trading partners. The president announced a 25 % increase on products from Mexico and Canada, as well as a doubling of the customs duties on Chinese imports, now raised to 20 %. "We will finally restore trade balance and protect our domestic industries," he stated during a press conference at the White House.

特朗普政府選擇了對進口的立場，隨著海關關稅的提高達到了幾個主要的貿易夥伴。總統宣布，從墨西哥和加拿大的產品增加了25％，以及中國進口的海關關稅增加一倍，現在提高到20％。他在白宮舉行的新聞發布會上說：“我們最終將恢復貿易平衡並保護我們的家庭產業。”

On the ground, household consumption fell in January, marking its steepest decline in nearly four years, according to a report from the Department of Commerce. At the same time, producer prices have risen, further fueling inflation. Companies are starting to sound the alarm: Target, one of the largest retailers in the country, has warned that its margins will be "significantly impacted" by the rise in import costs. In the manufacturing sector, the ISM index shows that industrial activity is slowing down, with a drop in new orders and a surge in raw material costs.

根據商務部的一份報告，在現場，一月份的家庭消費在一月份下降，標誌著其近四年來最大的下降。同時，生產商價格上漲，進一步加油通貨膨脹。公司開始發出警報：Target是該國最大的零售商之一，他警告說，進口成本的上升將對其利潤率受到重大影響。在製造業中，ISM指數表明工業活動正在放緩，新訂單下降和原材料成本激增。

Markets under pressure : between uncertainty and flight to safe havens

壓力下的市場：在不確定性和飛往避風港的飛行之間

As the effects of tariffs begin to weigh on the real economy, the financial markets are not immune. Since the beginning of March, the Dow Jones has lost 4.5 %, erasing the gains achieved after Trump's reelection last November. This downward movement reflects the growing distrust of investors, who fear that the American economy may become trapped in a negative spiral of inflation and stagnation. "We are witnessing a collapse in consumer confidence and a sharp rise in uncertainty," observes Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide.

隨著關稅的影響開始對真實經濟的影響，金融市場沒有免疫力。自3月初以來，道瓊斯瓊斯（Dow Jones）損失了4.5％，刪除了特朗普去年11月連任後取得的收益。這種下行的運動反映了投資者日益增長的不信任，他們擔心美國經濟可能會陷入通貨膨脹和停滯的負面螺旋中。全國首席策略師馬克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）觀察到：“我們目睹了消費者信心的崩潰和不確定性的急劇上升。”

Investors are reacting and are turning massively to government bonds, resulting in a drop in the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 4.2 %. This phenomenon, known as an inverted yield curve, is historically a precursor signal of recession. Meanwhile, other alternative assets are benefiting from this instability: gold and bitcoin are both rising, confirming their status as safe havens in times of crisis.

投資者正在做出反應，並正在大規模轉向政府債券，從而導致10年財政部的收益率下降至4.2％。這種現像被稱為倒的產量曲線，歷史上是經濟衰退的前體信號。同時，其他替代資產從這種不穩定中受益：黃金和比特幣都在上升，證實了他們在危機時期的避風港地位。

Thus, the question is no longer whether the economy will slow down, but rather at what speed and with what intensity.

因此，問題不再是經濟是否會放慢腳步，而是以什麼速度和強度下降。

The acceleration of inflation combined with a slowdown in growth places the Federal Reserve in a strategic deadlock. Should it lower its rates to restart activity, risking exacerbating inflation? Or conversely, maintain them at a high level, potentially worsening economic slowdown? A delicate decision that recalls the difficult choices of the 1970s when the Fed ultimately sacrificed growth to break inflation. In the meantime, businesses, investors, and consumers remain suspended over the next economic indicators. If stagflation were to become established, it could mark a turning point in American monetary and fiscal policy. But beyond the United States, this uncertainty could well spread to global markets, creating a new cycle of instability.

通貨膨脹的加速與增長的放緩相結合，美聯儲陷入了戰略僵局。它是否應該降低重新啟動活動的速度，風險加劇通貨膨脹？還是相反，將它們保持在高水平，可能會加劇經濟放緩？一個微妙的決定讓人想起了1970年代的艱難選擇，當時美聯儲最終犧牲了增長以打破通貨膨脹。同時，企業，投資者和消費者在下一個經濟指標上仍被暫停。如果要建立滯水，它可能標誌著美國貨幣和財政政策的轉折點。但是，除了美國以外，這種不確定性很可能傳播到全球市場，從而創造了新的不穩定週期。

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