特朗普胜算下降，哈里斯获胜——两大预测市场告诉我们什么

距离美国 2024 年大选仅剩四天，最新的预测市场数据描绘了一幅不断变化的图景：前总统唐纳德·特朗普的胜算已经下降，而副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的胜算却在上升。

Four days out from the U.S. 2024 election, the latest prediction market data shows former President Donald Trump’s odds slipping and Vice President Kamala Harris enjoying an upswing in her chances.

距离 2024 年美国大选还有四天，最新的预测市场数据显示，前总统唐纳德·特朗普的胜算有所下滑，而副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的胜算则有所上升。

As of 3:40 p.m. EST on Nov. 1, Kalshi.com bettors gave Trump a 56% likelihood of victory, while Harris trailed with a 44% chance. Just five days back, this same regulated prediction market had Trump leading at 62% and Harris at 38%.

截至美国东部时间 11 月 1 日下午 3:40，Kalshi.com 投注者认为特朗普获胜的可能性为 56%，而哈里斯的获胜可能性为 44%。就在五天前，在这个受监管的预测市场上，特朗普以 62% 的支持率领先，哈里斯则以 38% 的支持率领先。

Kalshi’s bettors also estimated a 15% possibility of Trump taking a traditionally deep-blue state. In the battlegrounds, Trump held a lead in four of the six hotly contested states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — while Harris clinched Wisconsin and Michigan.

卡尔希的投注者还估计特朗普拿下传统深蓝色州的可能性为 15%。在战场上，特朗普在六个竞争激烈的州中的四个州（宾夕法尼亚州、亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和内华达州）领先，而哈里斯则锁定了威斯康星州和密歇根州。

Across all predictions, Kalshi’s users saw a 38% chance of a Republican sweep, with the GOP taking the executive office, Senate, and House of Representatives.

在所有预测中，Kalshi 的用户认为共和党大获全胜的可能性为 38%，共和党将占据行政办公室、参议院和众议院。

On Polymarket, Trump’s odds sat at 60%, while Harris held 40%. Just five days back, Trump was at 65% with Harris at 34.9%. Back then, Trump led in all six swing states, but today’s numbers told a different story.

在Polymarket，特朗普的胜算是60%，而哈里斯的胜算是40%。就在五天前，特朗普的支持率为 65%，哈里斯为 34.9%。当时，特朗普在所有六个摇摆州都处于领先地位，但今天的数据却讲述了不同的故事。

Like Kalshi’s stats, Polymarket now showed Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Polymarket also indicated a 40% likelihood of a Republican trifecta.

与卡尔希的统计数据一样，Polymarket 现在显示哈里斯在密歇根州和威斯康星州领先。 Polymarket 还表示，共和党三连胜的可能性为 40%。

As of 3:40 p.0m EST on Friday, both Kalshi and Polymarket bettors projected Harris to win the popular vote, with Trump still expected to capture the electoral college, though with narrower odds.

截至美国东部时间周五下午 3:40，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 投注者均预测哈里斯将赢得普选，而特朗普仍有望赢得选举人团，但赔率较小。

As Election Day loomed, the shifting markets highlighted a tight, competitive race where both candidates retained viable paths to victory. The latest numbers revealed a potential split between popular and electoral votes, hinting at voter divisions that could impact the outcome and aftermath.

随着选举日的临近，不断变化的市场凸显了一场紧张、竞争激烈的竞选，两位候选人都保留了获胜的可行途径。最新数据显示普选票和选举人票之间可能存在分歧，暗示选民分歧可能会影响结果和后果。

With Trump’s dip and Harris’s rise adding intrigue, the forecast rested heavily on battleground state performances, making these final hours crucial for possible upsets.

随着特朗普的下滑和哈里斯的崛起增加了人们的兴趣，预测在很大程度上取决于战场州的表现，这使得最后几个小时对于可能出现的混乱至关重要。

These odds reflected that both Kalshi and Polymarket were factoring in recent events that may influence swing states and the ultimate result.

这些赔率反映出卡尔希和 Polymarket 都考虑到了最近可能影响摇摆州和最终结果的事件。

While fluctuations persisted in key states, the close margins pointed to the influence of undecided voters and last-minute campaigns. Each prediction point revealed a blend of strategy and pace, keeping the outcome open to twists as Election Day drew near and forecasts approached the finish line.

虽然关键州的波动持续存在，但差距接近表明尚未做出决定的选民和最后一刻竞选活动的影响。每个预测点都揭示了策略和节奏的结合，随着选举日的临近和预测接近终点线，结果可能会出现曲折。