川普勝算下降，哈里斯獲勝——兩大預測市場告訴我們什麼

距離美國2024 年大選僅剩四天，最新的預測市場數據描繪了一幅不斷變化的圖景：前總統唐納德·特朗普的勝算已經下降，而副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的勝算卻在上升。

Four days out from the U.S. 2024 election, the latest prediction market data shows former President Donald Trump’s odds slipping and Vice President Kamala Harris enjoying an upswing in her chances.

距離 2024 年美國大選還有四天，最新的預測市場數據顯示，前總統唐納德·川普的勝算有所下滑，而副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的勝算則有所上升。

As of 3:40 p.m. EST on Nov. 1, Kalshi.com bettors gave Trump a 56% likelihood of victory, while Harris trailed with a 44% chance. Just five days back, this same regulated prediction market had Trump leading at 62% and Harris at 38%.

截至美國東部時間 11 月 1 日下午 3:40，Kalshi.com 投注者認為川普獲勝的可能性為 56%，而哈里斯獲勝的可能性為 44%。就在五天前，在這個受監管的預測市場上，川普以 62% 的支持率領先，哈里斯以 38% 的支持率領先。

Kalshi’s bettors also estimated a 15% possibility of Trump taking a traditionally deep-blue state. In the battlegrounds, Trump held a lead in four of the six hotly contested states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — while Harris clinched Wisconsin and Michigan.

卡爾希的投注者也估計川普拿下傳統深藍州的可能性為 15%。在戰場上，川普在六個競爭激烈的州中的四個州（賓夕法尼亞州、亞利桑那州、喬治亞州和內華達州）領先，而哈里斯則鎖定了威斯康辛州和密西根州。

Across all predictions, Kalshi’s users saw a 38% chance of a Republican sweep, with the GOP taking the executive office, Senate, and House of Representatives.

在所有預測中，Kalshi 的用戶認為共和黨大獲全勝的可能性為 38%，共和黨將佔據行政辦公室、參議院和眾議院。

On Polymarket, Trump’s odds sat at 60%, while Harris held 40%. Just five days back, Trump was at 65% with Harris at 34.9%. Back then, Trump led in all six swing states, but today’s numbers told a different story.

在Polymarket，川普的勝算是60%，哈里斯的勝算是40%。就在五天前，川普的支持率為 65%，哈里斯為 34.9%。當時，川普在所有六個搖擺州都處於領先地位，但今天的數據卻講述了不同的故事。

Like Kalshi’s stats, Polymarket now showed Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Polymarket also indicated a 40% likelihood of a Republican trifecta.

與卡爾希的統計數據一樣，Polymarket 現在顯示哈里斯在密西根州和威斯康辛州領先。 Polymarket 也表示，共和黨三連勝的可能性為 40%。

As of 3:40 p.0m EST on Friday, both Kalshi and Polymarket bettors projected Harris to win the popular vote, with Trump still expected to capture the electoral college, though with narrower odds.

截至美國東部時間週五下午 3:40，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 投注者均預測哈里斯將贏得普選，而川普仍有​​望贏得選舉人團，但賠率較小。

As Election Day loomed, the shifting markets highlighted a tight, competitive race where both candidates retained viable paths to victory. The latest numbers revealed a potential split between popular and electoral votes, hinting at voter divisions that could impact the outcome and aftermath.

隨著選舉日的臨近，不斷變化的市場凸顯了一場緊張、競爭激烈的競選，兩位候選人都保留了獲勝的可行途徑。最新數據顯示普選票和選舉人票之間可能存在分歧，暗示選民分歧可能影響結果和後果。

With Trump’s dip and Harris’s rise adding intrigue, the forecast rested heavily on battleground state performances, making these final hours crucial for possible upsets.

隨著川普的下滑和哈里斯的崛起增加了人們的興趣，預測在很大程度上取決於戰場州的表現，這使得最後幾個小時對於可能出現的混亂至關重要。

These odds reflected that both Kalshi and Polymarket were factoring in recent events that may influence swing states and the ultimate result.

這些賠率反映出卡爾希和 Polymarket 都考慮到了最近可能影響搖擺州和最終結果的事件。

While fluctuations persisted in key states, the close margins pointed to the influence of undecided voters and last-minute campaigns. Each prediction point revealed a blend of strategy and pace, keeping the outcome open to twists as Election Day drew near and forecasts approached the finish line.

雖然關鍵州的波動持續存在，但差距接近表明尚未做出決定的選民和最後一刻競選活動的影響。每個預測點都揭示了策略和節奏的結合，隨著選舉日的臨近和預測接近終點線，結果可能會出現曲折。