Trump’s Odds Slip, Harris Gains — What 2 Major Prediction Markets Are Telling Us

With just four days left until the U.S. 2024 election, the latest prediction market data paints a shifting landscape: former President Donald Trump’s odds have taken a downturn, while Vice President Kamala Harris is enjoying an upswing in her chances.

Four days out from the U.S. 2024 election, the latest prediction market data shows former President Donald Trump’s odds slipping and Vice President Kamala Harris enjoying an upswing in her chances.

As of 3:40 p.m. EST on Nov. 1, Kalshi.com bettors gave Trump a 56% likelihood of victory, while Harris trailed with a 44% chance. Just five days back, this same regulated prediction market had Trump leading at 62% and Harris at 38%.

Kalshi’s bettors also estimated a 15% possibility of Trump taking a traditionally deep-blue state. In the battlegrounds, Trump held a lead in four of the six hotly contested states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada — while Harris clinched Wisconsin and Michigan.

Across all predictions, Kalshi’s users saw a 38% chance of a Republican sweep, with the GOP taking the executive office, Senate, and House of Representatives.

On Polymarket, Trump’s odds sat at 60%, while Harris held 40%. Just five days back, Trump was at 65% with Harris at 34.9%. Back then, Trump led in all six swing states, but today’s numbers told a different story.

Like Kalshi’s stats, Polymarket now showed Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Polymarket also indicated a 40% likelihood of a Republican trifecta.

As of 3:40 p.0m EST on Friday, both Kalshi and Polymarket bettors projected Harris to win the popular vote, with Trump still expected to capture the electoral college, though with narrower odds.

As Election Day loomed, the shifting markets highlighted a tight, competitive race where both candidates retained viable paths to victory. The latest numbers revealed a potential split between popular and electoral votes, hinting at voter divisions that could impact the outcome and aftermath.

With Trump’s dip and Harris’s rise adding intrigue, the forecast rested heavily on battleground state performances, making these final hours crucial for possible upsets.

These odds reflected that both Kalshi and Polymarket were factoring in recent events that may influence swing states and the ultimate result.

While fluctuations persisted in key states, the close margins pointed to the influence of undecided voters and last-minute campaigns. Each prediction point revealed a blend of strategy and pace, keeping the outcome open to twists as Election Day drew near and forecasts approached the finish line.