由于内部人士控制了 80% 的供应量，特朗普的 Meme 币面临着一场艰苦的战斗

唐纳德·特朗普在竞选过程中对加密货币的大力支持最终在就职前不久推出了他自己的模因代币，但总统可能很难兑现特朗普币的令人眼花缭乱的收益。

Donald Trump's foray into crypto during his presidential campaign culminated in the launch of his own meme token, the $Trump coin, shortly before his inauguration. However, the president may encounter challenges in cashing out on the astronomical gains generated by the token.

唐纳德·特朗普在总统竞选期间进军加密货币领域，最终在就职前不久推出了他自己的模因代币——特朗普币。然而，总统在兑现代币产生的天文收益方面可能会遇到挑战。

Launched on Friday, the meme token reached its peak by Sunday, boasting a fully diluted market value of nearly $73 billion. Since then, the token has experienced a sharp decline of about 50%, yet it still maintains a fully diluted value of around $38 billion.

Meme 代币于周五推出，到周日达到顶峰，完全摊薄后的市值接近 730 亿美元。此后，该代币经历了约 50% 的大幅下跌，但其完全摊薄后的价值仍保持在 380 亿美元左右。

In a matter of days, Trump has ascended to become one of the biggest crypto billionaires globally — at least on paper. As of Tuesday afternoon, CIC Digital, the issuer of the $Trump coin and an affiliate of the Trump Organization, controls 80% of the token's supply, which is valued at approximately $30 billion.

几天之内，特朗普就成为全球最大的加密货币亿万富翁之一——至少在纸面上是这样。截至周二下午，特朗普币的发行者、特朗普集团的附属公司 CIC Digital 控制着该代币供应量的 80%，价值约 300 亿美元。

According to the token's official website, 10% of the remaining supply is allocated for public distribution, while another 10% is earmarked for "liquidity." The website also states that 1 billion $Trump coins will be issued over a three-year period, with 200 million available currently.

根据该代币的官方网站，剩余供应量的 10% 用于公开分配，另外 10% 指定用于“流动性”。该网站还表示，将在三年内发行 10 亿美元特朗普币，目前已发行 2 亿枚。

While CIC Digital controls a vast majority of the token's supply, that doesn't guarantee that it can sell that stake at the current market prices.

尽管 CIC Digital 控制着该代币的绝大多数供应，但这并不能保证它可以以当前市场价格出售该股份。

A wave of selling would likely drive down the price of the token substantially.

一波抛售潮可能会大幅压低代币的价格。

"Tokens held by insiders could distribute this supply, leading to losses for unsuspecting investors," said Gautam Chhugani, an analyst at Bernstein, regarding CIC Digital and its holdings of the $Trump token.

Bernstein 分析师 Gautam Chhugani 在谈到 CIC Digital 及其持有的 $Trump 代币时表示：“内部人士持有的代币可能会分配这种供应，从而导致毫无戒心的投资者遭受损失。”

Investors encountered this phenomenon previously with Trump-linked assets, particularly in the volatile trading of shares in Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group.

投资者此前曾在与特朗普相关的资产中遇到过这种现象，特别是在 Truth Social 母公司特朗普媒体与科技集团 (Trump Media & Technology Group) 股票交易波动的情况下。

Trump owns about 60% of Truth Social shares, and when his lock-up period expired in September, the stock plummeted on concerns that he would unleash a wave of selling that would outpace any demand for the stock.

特朗普拥有 Truth Social 约 60% 的股票，当他的禁售期于 9 月份到期时，该股暴跌，因为人们担心他会引发一波抛售潮，超过对该股的任何需求。

The share price rebounded when Trump indicated he had no plans to sell Truth Social shares.

当特朗普表示他没有计划出售 Truth Social 股票时，股价反弹。

This same dynamic applies to the president's meme coin. Any indication that CIC Digital insiders will sell the token would likely create downward pressure on its price.

同样的动态也适用于总统的模因币。任何表明 CIC Digital 内部人士将出售该代币的迹象都可能对其价格造成下行压力。

"Given how quickly the token reached a stratospheric market value, the 80% supply held by insiders does put some pressure on its market value," said Chhugani.

Chhugani 表示：“考虑到代币达到极高市值的速度，内部人士持有 80% 的供应量确实对其市值造成了一定压力。”

The analyst noted that while meme coins tend to come and go, a token directly associated with the president would probably have more staying power than most. However, the ownership structure may make it less appealing.

这位分析师指出，虽然模因币往往会来来去去，但与总统直接相关的代币可能比大多数代币具有更强的持久力。然而，所有权结构可能会降低其吸引力。

"In this case, a meme coin capitalizing on Trump's brand and politics has potential longevity but would depend on the potential token design to make it less extractive due to 80% insider supply by the Trump affiliates," said Chhugani. "The Trump team followed up with a new coin launch called $Melania, and the market reacted negatively to the further dilution of the brand with market participants perceiving it to be extractive."

Chhugani 表示：“在这种情况下，利用特朗普品牌和政治的模因币具有潜在的寿命，但取决于潜在的代币设计，由于 80% 的内部供应由特朗普附属机构提供，因此会降低其榨取性。” “特朗普团队随后推出了一款名为 $Melania 的新代币，市场对该品牌的进一步稀释做出了负面反应，市场参与者认为它具有榨取性。”

Correction: January 21, 2025 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Donald Trump's lock-up period expired for Truth Social stock. It was in September, not earlier this year.

更正：2025 年 1 月 21 日——这篇报道的早期版本错误地表述了唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 对 Truth Social 股票的禁售期到期的时间。那是在九月份，而不是今年早些时候。