由於內部人士控制了 80% 的供應量，川普的 Meme 幣面臨著一場艱苦的戰鬥

唐納德·川普在競選過程中對加密貨幣的大力支持最終在就職前不久推出了他自己的模因代幣，但總統可能很難兌現川普幣的令人眼花繚亂的收益。

Donald Trump's foray into crypto during his presidential campaign culminated in the launch of his own meme token, the $Trump coin, shortly before his inauguration. However, the president may encounter challenges in cashing out on the astronomical gains generated by the token.

唐納德·川普在總統競選期間進軍加密貨幣領域，最終在就職前不久推出了他自己的迷因代幣——川普幣。然而，總統在兌現代幣產生的天文收益方面可能會遇到挑戰。

Launched on Friday, the meme token reached its peak by Sunday, boasting a fully diluted market value of nearly $73 billion. Since then, the token has experienced a sharp decline of about 50%, yet it still maintains a fully diluted value of around $38 billion.

Meme 代幣於週五推出，到週日達到頂峰，完全攤薄後的市值接近 730 億美元。此後，該代幣經歷了約 50% 的大幅下跌，但其完全稀釋後的價值仍保持在 380 億美元左右。

In a matter of days, Trump has ascended to become one of the biggest crypto billionaires globally — at least on paper. As of Tuesday afternoon, CIC Digital, the issuer of the $Trump coin and an affiliate of the Trump Organization, controls 80% of the token's supply, which is valued at approximately $30 billion.

幾天之內，川普就成為全球最大的加密貨幣億萬富翁之一——至少在紙面上是如此。截至週二下午，川普幣的發行者、川普集團的附屬公司 CIC Digital 控制著該代幣供應量的 80%，價值約 300 億美元。

According to the token's official website, 10% of the remaining supply is allocated for public distribution, while another 10% is earmarked for "liquidity." The website also states that 1 billion $Trump coins will be issued over a three-year period, with 200 million available currently.

根據該代幣的官方網站，剩餘供應量的 10% 用於公開分配，另外 10% 則指定用於「流動性」。該網站還表示，將在三年內發行 10 億美元川普幣，目前已發行 2 億枚。

While CIC Digital controls a vast majority of the token's supply, that doesn't guarantee that it can sell that stake at the current market prices.

儘管 CIC Digital 控制著該代幣的絕大多數供應，但這並不能保證它可以以當前市場價格出售該股份。

A wave of selling would likely drive down the price of the token substantially.

一波拋售潮可能會大幅壓低代幣的價格。

"Tokens held by insiders could distribute this supply, leading to losses for unsuspecting investors," said Gautam Chhugani, an analyst at Bernstein, regarding CIC Digital and its holdings of the $Trump token.

Bernstein 分析師 Gautam Chhugani 在談到 CIC Digital 及其持有的 $Trump 代幣時表示：“內部人士持有的代幣可能會分配這種供應，從而導致毫無戒心的投資者遭受損失。”

Investors encountered this phenomenon previously with Trump-linked assets, particularly in the volatile trading of shares in Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group.

投資人先前曾在與川普相關的資產中遇到這種現象，特別是在 Truth Social 母公司川普媒體與科技集團 (Trump Media & Technology Group) 股票交易波動的情況下。

Trump owns about 60% of Truth Social shares, and when his lock-up period expired in September, the stock plummeted on concerns that he would unleash a wave of selling that would outpace any demand for the stock.

川普擁有 Truth Social 約 60% 的股份，當他的禁售期於 9 月到期時，該股暴跌，因為人們擔心他會引發一波拋售潮，超過對該股的任何需求。

The share price rebounded when Trump indicated he had no plans to sell Truth Social shares.

當川普表示他沒有計劃出售 Truth Social 股票時，股價反彈。

This same dynamic applies to the president's meme coin. Any indication that CIC Digital insiders will sell the token would likely create downward pressure on its price.

同樣的動態也適用於總統的迷因幣。任何表明 CIC Digital 內部人士將出售該代幣的跡像都可能對其價格造成下行壓力。

"Given how quickly the token reached a stratospheric market value, the 80% supply held by insiders does put some pressure on its market value," said Chhugani.

Chhugani 表示：“考慮到代幣達到極高市值的速度，內部人士持有 80% 的供應量確實對其市值造成了一定壓力。”

The analyst noted that while meme coins tend to come and go, a token directly associated with the president would probably have more staying power than most. However, the ownership structure may make it less appealing.

這位分析師指出，雖然迷因幣往往會來來去去，但與總統直接相關的代幣可能比大多數代幣具有更強的持久力。然而，所有權結構可能會降低其吸引力。

"In this case, a meme coin capitalizing on Trump's brand and politics has potential longevity but would depend on the potential token design to make it less extractive due to 80% insider supply by the Trump affiliates," said Chhugani. "The Trump team followed up with a new coin launch called $Melania, and the market reacted negatively to the further dilution of the brand with market participants perceiving it to be extractive."

Chhugani 表示：「在這種情況下，利用川普品牌和政治的迷因幣具有潛在的壽命，但取決於潛在的代幣設計，由於80% 的內部供應由川普附屬機構提供，因此會降低其榨取性。 “川普團隊隨後推出了一款名為 $Melania 的新代幣，市場對該品牌的進一步稀釋做出了負面反應，市場參與者認為它具有榨取性。”

Correction: January 21, 2025 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Donald Trump's lock-up period expired for Truth Social stock. It was in September, not earlier this year.

更正：2025 年 1 月 21 日——這篇報導的早期版本錯誤地表述了唐納德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 對 Truth Social 股票的禁售期到期的時間。那是在九月份，而不是今年早些時候。