美国财政部计划今年发行超过300万亿美元的债券

这将是历史上记录最高的债券发行水平。它将如何影响加密市场？

The US Treasury plans to issue over $31 trillion in bonds this year—about 109% of GDP and 144% of M2. This would be the highest recorded level of bond issuance.

美国财政部计划今年发行超过31万亿美元的债券，占GDP的109％，占M2的144％。这将是记录最高的债券发行水平。

How will it impact the crypto market?

它将如何影响加密市场？

The Treasury needs to finance a record $7 trillion deficit this year. To do so, it will issue an unprecedented amount of bonds, potentially pushing yields higher if the pace of issuance outstrips demand.

财政部需要为今年创纪录的7万亿美元赤字提供资金。为此，它将发行前所未有的债券，如果发行速度超出需求，则可能会提高收益率。

Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which could draw capital away from crypto.

较高的收益率增加了持有比特币和以太坊等非收益资产的机会成本，这可能会使资本从加密货币中脱离。

This could add to the crypto market’s volatility as broader market uncertainty heightens.

随着更广泛的市场不确定性增强，这可能会增加加密市场的波动。

Any reduction in foreign appetite for US debt could force the Treasury to offer even steeper yields to compensate buyers.

外国对美国债务的胃口的任何减少都可能迫使财政部提供更陡峭的收益率来补偿买家。

Foreigners hold about one-third of US debt, and any pessimism in their ranks could have major implications for the bond market.

外国人拥有约三分之一的美国债务，其排名中的任何悲观主义都可能对债券市场产生重大影响。

Tariffs and portfolio rebalancings could influence foreign demand for US debt.

关税和投资组合的重新平衡可能会影响外国对美国债务的需求。

Periods of extreme monetary expansion usually see investors turning to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

极端货币扩张的时期通常认为投资者将比特币视为通货膨胀对冲。

However, if the government eventually turns to debt monetization—essentially printing money to fund deficits—it could strengthen the case for cryptocurrencies as monetary alternatives.

但是，如果政府最终将债务货币化（基本上是印刷货币来资助赤字），则可以加强将加密货币作为货币替代方案的案例。

Moreover, if a pessimistic global macro backdrop reduces appetite for risk assets, it could put pressure on equities and crypto.

此外，如果悲观的全球宏观背景减少了对风险资产的需求，则可能对股票和加密货币施加压力。

During the 2022 bond sell-off, Bitcoin fell more than 50% as Treasury yields spiked. A repeat scenario could test crypto’s appeal.

在2022年债券抛售期间，随着国库收益率提高，比特币下降了50％以上。重复方案可以测试加密货币的吸引力。

Furthermore, a stronger dollar could compound headwinds for crypto.

此外，更强大的美元可能会使加密货币的逆风更加逆风。

As yields rise, the dollar typically gains. A stronger dollar makes Bitcoin’s USD-denominated price more expensive for overseas buyers, dampening demand.

随着收益率的上升，美元通常会增加。一美元的美元使比特币以美元计价的价格更昂贵，从而削弱了需求。

But crypto offers unique attributes that could sustain interest even in a pessimistic and inflationary environment.

但是加密提供了独特的属性，即使在悲观和通货膨胀的环境中，也可以维持兴趣。

In periods of extreme monetary expansion, such as post-pandemic, investors turned to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

在诸如大流行之类的极端货币扩张时期，投资者将比特币视为通货膨胀对冲。

Even if higher yields curb speculative flows, crypto’s finite supply and decentralized nature may sustain a baseline of buyer interest.

即使较高的收益率遏制投机性流量，加密货币的有限供应和分散的性质也可能维持买方利息的基准。

Technically, Bitcoin’s correlation to yields may weaken if Treasury issuance triggers broader macro volatility.

从技术上讲，如果国库发行触发更广泛的宏观波动，比特币与产量的相关性可能会削弱。

When bond markets are hit by trade or fiscal policy shocks, traders may turn to digital assets to diversify since they don’t move in step.

当债券市场受到贸易或财政政策冲击的打击时，交易者可能会转向数字资产多样化，因为他们没有逐步发展。

However, that thesis hinges on continued institutional adoption and favorable regulation.

但是，该论文取决于持续的机构采用和有利的监管。

5/ What This Means for CryptoPersistent upward pressure on rates from Treasury supply could weigh on risk assets- crypto included. However, if the government eventually turns to debt monetization- essentially printing money to fund deficits- it could strengthen the case for...

5/这意味着对财政部供应利率的加密迫使向上压力可能会影响风险资产 - 包括加密货币。但是，如果政府最终转向债务货币化 - 本质上是印刷资金来资助赤字 - 它可以加强...

Crypto’s liquidity profile also matters. Large bond sales often drain bank reserves- tightening funding markets.

加密的流动性概况也很重要。大型债券销售经常流失银行储备，收紧资金市场。

In theory, tighter liquidity could boost demand for DeFi protocols offering higher yields than traditional money markets.

从理论上讲，与传统货币市场相比，更严格的流动性可以提高对DEFI方案的需求。

Overall, record US debt supply points to higher yields and a stronger dollar- volatility for crypto as a risk asset.

总体而言，创纪录的美国债务供应点提高了收益率更高，加密货币作为风险资产的增长率更高。

Yet crypto's inflation-hedge narrative and evolving technical role in diversified portfolios could temper volatility.

然而，加密在多元化投资组合中的通货膨胀对冲叙事和不断发展的技术作用可能会降低波动。

Market participants should watch foreign demand trends and liquidity conditions as key indicators for crypto's next moves.

市场参与者应注意外国需求趋势和流动性条件，作为加密货币下一步行动的关键指标。