美國財政部計劃今年發行超過300萬億美元的債券

這將是歷史上記錄最高的債券發行水平。它將如何影響加密市場？

The US Treasury plans to issue over $31 trillion in bonds this year—about 109% of GDP and 144% of M2. This would be the highest recorded level of bond issuance.

美國財政部計劃今年發行超過31萬億美元的債券，佔GDP的109％，佔M2的144％。這將是記錄最高的債券發行水平。

How will it impact the crypto market?

它將如何影響加密市場？

The Treasury needs to finance a record $7 trillion deficit this year. To do so, it will issue an unprecedented amount of bonds, potentially pushing yields higher if the pace of issuance outstrips demand.

財政部需要為今年創紀錄的7萬億美元赤字提供資金。為此，它將發行前所未有的債券，如果發行速度超出需求，則可能會提高收益率。

Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which could draw capital away from crypto.

較高的收益率增加了持有比特幣和以太坊等非收益資產的機會成本，這可能會使資本從加密貨幣中脫離。

This could add to the crypto market’s volatility as broader market uncertainty heightens.

隨著更廣泛的市場不確定性增強，這可能會增加加密市場的波動。

Any reduction in foreign appetite for US debt could force the Treasury to offer even steeper yields to compensate buyers.

外國對美國債務的胃口的任何減少都可能迫使財政部提供更陡峭的收益率來補償買家。

Foreigners hold about one-third of US debt, and any pessimism in their ranks could have major implications for the bond market.

外國人擁有約三分之一的美國債務，其排名中的任何悲觀主義都可能對債券市場產生重大影響。

Tariffs and portfolio rebalancings could influence foreign demand for US debt.

關稅和投資組合的重新平衡可能會影響外國對美國債務的需求。

Periods of extreme monetary expansion usually see investors turning to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

極端貨幣擴張的時期通常認為投資者將比特幣視為通貨膨脹對沖。

However, if the government eventually turns to debt monetization—essentially printing money to fund deficits—it could strengthen the case for cryptocurrencies as monetary alternatives.

但是，如果政府最終將債務貨幣化（基本上是印刷貨幣來資助赤字），則可以加強將加密貨幣作為貨幣替代方案的案例。

Moreover, if a pessimistic global macro backdrop reduces appetite for risk assets, it could put pressure on equities and crypto.

此外，如果悲觀的全球宏觀背景減少了對風險資產的需求，則可能對股票和加密貨幣施加壓力。

During the 2022 bond sell-off, Bitcoin fell more than 50% as Treasury yields spiked. A repeat scenario could test crypto’s appeal.

在2022年債券拋售期間，隨著國庫收益率提高，比特幣下降了50％以上。重複方案可以測試加密貨幣的吸引力。

Furthermore, a stronger dollar could compound headwinds for crypto.

此外，更強大的美元可能會使加密貨幣的逆風更加逆風。

As yields rise, the dollar typically gains. A stronger dollar makes Bitcoin’s USD-denominated price more expensive for overseas buyers, dampening demand.

隨著收益率的上升，美元通常會增加。一美元的美元使比特幣以美元計價的價格更昂貴，從而削弱了需求。

But crypto offers unique attributes that could sustain interest even in a pessimistic and inflationary environment.

但是加密提供了獨特的屬性，即使在悲觀和通貨膨脹的環境中，也可以維持興趣。

In periods of extreme monetary expansion, such as post-pandemic, investors turned to Bitcoin as an inflation hedge.

在諸如大流行之類的極端貨幣擴張時期，投資者將比特幣視為通貨膨脹對沖。

Even if higher yields curb speculative flows, crypto’s finite supply and decentralized nature may sustain a baseline of buyer interest.

即使較高的收益率遏制投機性流量，加密貨幣的有限供應和分散的性質也可能維持買方利息的基準。

Technically, Bitcoin’s correlation to yields may weaken if Treasury issuance triggers broader macro volatility.

從技術上講，如果國庫發行觸發更廣泛的宏觀波動，比特幣與產量的相關性可能會削弱。

When bond markets are hit by trade or fiscal policy shocks, traders may turn to digital assets to diversify since they don’t move in step.

當債券市場受到貿易或財政政策衝擊的打擊時，交易者可能會轉向數字資產多樣化，因為他們沒有逐步發展。

However, that thesis hinges on continued institutional adoption and favorable regulation.

但是，該論文取決於持續的機構採用和有利的監管。

5/ What This Means for CryptoPersistent upward pressure on rates from Treasury supply could weigh on risk assets- crypto included. However, if the government eventually turns to debt monetization- essentially printing money to fund deficits- it could strengthen the case for...

5/這意味著對財政部供應利率的加密迫使向上壓力可能會影響風險資產 - 包括加密貨幣。但是，如果政府最終轉向債務貨幣化 - 本質上是印刷資金來資助赤字 - 它可以加強...

Crypto’s liquidity profile also matters. Large bond sales often drain bank reserves- tightening funding markets.

加密的流動性概況也很重要。大型債券銷售經常流失銀行儲備，收緊資金市場。

In theory, tighter liquidity could boost demand for DeFi protocols offering higher yields than traditional money markets.

從理論上講，與傳統貨幣市場相比，更嚴格的流動性可以提高對DEFI方案的需求。

Overall, record US debt supply points to higher yields and a stronger dollar- volatility for crypto as a risk asset.

總體而言，創紀錄的美國債務供應點提高了收益率更高，加密貨幣作為風險資產的增長率更高。

Yet crypto's inflation-hedge narrative and evolving technical role in diversified portfolios could temper volatility.

然而，加密在多元化投資組合中的通貨膨脹對沖敘事和不斷發展的技術作用可能會降低波動。

Market participants should watch foreign demand trends and liquidity conditions as key indicators for crypto's next moves.

市場參與者應注意外國需求趨勢和流動性條件，作為加密貨幣下一步行動的關鍵指標。