由于通胀依然顽固，交易商取消了对英国央行宽松政策的押注

英国通胀高于预期后，交易员减少了对英国央行 2024 年货币宽松程度的押注。他们目前预计到 11 月只会降息 25 个基点，第二次降息的可能性为 30%，随后降息幅度逐渐扩大接近50%的机会。

Traders Scale Back Bets on Bank of England Monetary Easing Amidst Persistent Inflation

在持续通胀的背景下，交易员缩减了对英国央行货币宽松的押注

Traders have significantly reduced their expectations for monetary easing by the Bank of England (BOE) in 2024, following the release of inflation data that indicated a slower-than-anticipated decline in price pressures.

通胀数据显示物价压力下降速度慢于预期后，交易员大幅降低了对英国央行 (BOE) 2024 年货币宽松的预期。

The latest market pricing suggests that traders now anticipate only one 25 basis point interest rate cut from the BOE this year, a departure from earlier expectations of multiple reductions. The pound sterling experienced a slight rebound from its five-month low on the prospect of a more gradual easing cycle.

最新的市场定价表明，交易员目前预计英国央行今年只会降息一次 25 个基点，这与之前多次降息的预期背道而驰。由于宽松周期更加渐进的前景，英镑从五个月低点小幅反弹。

The shift in sentiment was prompted by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that UK inflation declined to 2.5% in March, falling short of market forecasts of 2.3%. This persistent inflation has raised concerns among investors that the BOE may be forced to adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy.

消费者价格指数（CPI）数据的发布引发了市场情绪的转变，该数据显示英国3月份通胀率降至2.5%，低于市场预测的2.3%。持续的通胀引发了投资者的担忧，他们担心英国央行可能被迫采取更加谨慎的货币政策。

Traders initially priced in a fully priced quarter-point rate cut by November, but that probability has since moderated. The market now assigns a mere 30% chance of a second cut this year, although this figure has slightly increased since the initial reaction to the inflation data.

交易员最初预计 11 月份将降息 25 个基点，但此后这种可能性已经减弱。目前市场预计今年第二次降息的可能性仅为 30%，尽管这一数字自对通胀数据的最初反应以来略有增加。

The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on May 11th to announce its latest policy decision. The MPC is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, but traders will be closely monitoring the accompanying statement for any signals regarding the future path of monetary policy.

英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)定于5月11日召开会议，宣布最新政策决定。人们普遍预计货币政策委员会将把利率维持在 0.5% 不变，但交易员将密切关注随附的声明，以获取有关未来货币政策路径的任何信号。

Analysts believe that the BOE will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring inflation data and economic indicators before making any significant policy shifts. However, the elevated levels of inflation could prompt the MPC to initiate a modest tightening cycle later in the year if price pressures fail to moderate as expected.

分析师认为，英国央行可能会采取观望态度，在做出任何重大政策转变之前密切关注通胀数据和经济指标。然而，如果物价压力未能按预期缓解，通胀水平升高可能会促使货币政策委员会在今年晚些时候启动温和的紧缩周期。

The recent market developments underscore the challenges facing central banks in balancing the need to support economic growth with their mandates to maintain price stability. As inflation remains elevated, traders and investors will continue to scrutinize BOE signals and data releases for clues about the future direction of monetary policy.

最近的市场发展凸显了央行在平衡支持经济增长的需要与维持价格稳定的任务方面面临的挑战。由于通胀仍然居高不下，交易员和投资者将继续关注英国央行的信号和数据发布，以寻找有关未来货币政策方向的线索。