由於通膨依然頑固，交易商取消了對英國央行寬鬆政策的押注

英國通膨高於預期後，交易員減少了對英國央行2024 年貨幣寬鬆程度的押注。逐漸擴大接近50%的機會。

Traders Scale Back Bets on Bank of England Monetary Easing Amidst Persistent Inflation

在持續通膨的背景下，交易員縮減了對英國央行貨幣寬鬆的押注

Traders have significantly reduced their expectations for monetary easing by the Bank of England (BOE) in 2024, following the release of inflation data that indicated a slower-than-anticipated decline in price pressures.

通膨數據顯示物價壓力下降速度慢於預期後，交易員大幅降低了對英國央行 (BOE) 2024 年貨幣寬鬆的預期。

The latest market pricing suggests that traders now anticipate only one 25 basis point interest rate cut from the BOE this year, a departure from earlier expectations of multiple reductions. The pound sterling experienced a slight rebound from its five-month low on the prospect of a more gradual easing cycle.

最新的市場定價表明，交易員目前預計英國央行今年只會降息一次 25 個基點，這與先前多次降息的預期背道而馳。由於寬鬆週期更加漸進的前景，英鎊從五個月低點小幅反彈。

The shift in sentiment was prompted by the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that UK inflation declined to 2.5% in March, falling short of market forecasts of 2.3%. This persistent inflation has raised concerns among investors that the BOE may be forced to adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy.

消費者物價指數（CPI）數據的發布引發了市場情緒的轉變，該數據顯示英國3月通膨率降至2.5%，低於市場預測的2.3%。持續的通膨引發了投資者的擔憂，他們擔心英國央行可能被迫採取更謹慎的貨幣政策。

Traders initially priced in a fully priced quarter-point rate cut by November, but that probability has since moderated. The market now assigns a mere 30% chance of a second cut this year, although this figure has slightly increased since the initial reaction to the inflation data.

交易員最初預計 11 月將降息 25 個基點，但此後這種可能性已經減弱。目前市場預計今年第二次降息的可能性僅為 30%，儘管這一數字自對通膨數據的最初反應以來略有增加。

The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to meet on May 11th to announce its latest policy decision. The MPC is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, but traders will be closely monitoring the accompanying statement for any signals regarding the future path of monetary policy.

英國央行貨幣政策委員會(MPC)定於5月11日召開會議，宣布最新政策決定。人們普遍預期貨幣政策委員會將把利率維持在 0.5% 不變，但交易員將密切關注隨附的聲明，以獲取有關未來貨幣政策路徑的任何訊號。

Analysts believe that the BOE will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach, closely monitoring inflation data and economic indicators before making any significant policy shifts. However, the elevated levels of inflation could prompt the MPC to initiate a modest tightening cycle later in the year if price pressures fail to moderate as expected.

分析師認為，英國央行可能會採取觀望態度，在做出任何重大政策轉變之前密切關注通膨數據和經濟指標。然而，如果物價壓力未能如預期緩解，通膨水準升高可能會促使貨幣政策委員會在今年稍後啟動溫和的緊縮週期。

The recent market developments underscore the challenges facing central banks in balancing the need to support economic growth with their mandates to maintain price stability. As inflation remains elevated, traders and investors will continue to scrutinize BOE signals and data releases for clues about the future direction of monetary policy.

最近的市場發展凸顯了央行在平衡支持經濟成長的需要與維持價格穩定的任務方面所面臨的挑戰。由於通膨仍然居高不下，交易員和投資者將繼續關注英國央行的信號和數據發布，以尋找有關未來貨幣政策方向的線索。