代币解锁：悬崖解锁市场导航指南

代币解锁吸引了许多交易者的注意，他们希望利用抛售压力增加造成的波动性获利。

As the crypto market continues to rally, a new class of traders is emerging, hoping to capitalize on the volatility caused by large-scale token unlocks. But what exactly are these unlocks, and how can traders track and trade them effectively?

随着加密货币市场持续上涨，新一类交易者正在出现，希望利用大规模代币解锁带来的波动。但这些解锁的内容到底是什么？交易者如何有效地跟踪和交易它们？

A few weeks ago, Messari published an in-depth report titled "Don't Look Down: Navigating Markets Around Cliff Unlocks," which examines the impact of increased circulating supply on the market. This article highlights the key points of the report and provides additional background information and recommendations for tracking unlock events.

几周前，梅萨里发表了一份题为“不要往下看：围绕悬崖解锁的市场导航”的深入报告，该报告探讨了流通供应增加对市场的影响。本文重点介绍了报告的要点，并提供了额外的背景信息和跟踪解锁事件的建议。

What are token cliff unlocks?

什么是代币悬崖解锁？

A token cliff unlock is an event where a large amount of tokens, usually locked by early investors, employees, or advisors, are suddenly released into the market. This can have a significant impact on the token's price, especially if the tokens are being unlocked in proportion to the circulating supply. For example, if a project has 100 million tokens in circulation and 25 million tokens are being unlocked, this would be considered a 25% increase in the circulating supply.

代币悬崖解锁是指通常由早期投资者、员工或顾问锁定的大量代币突然释放到市场的事件。这可能会对代币的价格产生重大影响，特别是如果代币按照流通供应量的比例解锁的话。例如，如果一个项目有 1 亿个代币在流通，并且正在解锁 2500 万个代币，这将被视为流通供应量增加了 25%。

Most token unlocks are less than 2.5% of the circulating supply, with unlocks of at least 5% of the circulating supply accounting for less than half of all events (see above). Tokens rarely trade in isolation; their prices are influenced by market sentiment, new product launches, and narrative changes. Although token unlocks typically have a negative impact on a token's price relative to BTC, this is not always the certain patterns are worth noting:

大多数代币解锁量不到流通供应量的 2.5%，解锁量至少占流通供应量的 5%，占所有事件的一半以下（见上文）。代币很少单独交易；它们的价格受到市场情绪、新产品发布和叙述变化的影响。尽管代币解锁通常会对代币相对于 BTC 的价格产生负面影响，但这并不总是某些值得注意的模式：

- Unlocks of at least 5% of the circulating supply tend to have a significant impact on token performance.

- 解锁至少 5% 的流通供应往往会对代币性能产生重大影响。

- Poor token performance typically occurs within seven days before and after unlock events.

- 代币性能不佳通常发生在解锁事件前后 7 天内。

- New product launches, strong industry performance, and other catalysts may override typical behavior around unlock dates.

- 新产品发布、强劲的行业表现和其他催化剂可能会超越解锁日期周围的典型行为。

- Highly anticipated large-scale unlocks can trigger unexpected market reactions.

- 备受期待的大规模解锁可能会引发意想不到的市场反应。

- In the long term, tokens with larger monthly unlock amounts struggle to outperform other altcoins.

- 从长远来看，每月解锁量较大的代币很难超越其他山寨币。

How to track token cliff unlocks

如何追踪代币悬崖解锁情况

There are several ways to track upcoming token cliff unlocks. One popular method is to use the Messari dashboard, which provides a comprehensive list of upcoming unlocks. Another option is to use a service like Token Unlocks or DefiLlama, which aggregates data from various sources and presents it in an easily digestible format.

有多种方法可以跟踪即将到来的代币悬崖解锁。一种流行的方法是使用 Messari 仪表板，它提供了即将解锁的完整列表。另一种选择是使用 Token Unlocks 或 DefiLlama 等服务，该服务聚合来自各种来源的数据并以易于理解的格式呈现。

On Messari, the most significant upcoming unlocks include the following:

在 Messari 上，即将推出的最重要的解锁内容包括：

- $ONDO: 268% increase in supply over 3 months

- $ONDO：3 个月内供应量增加 268%

- $OMNI: 154% increase in supply over 7 months

- $OMNI：7 个月内供应量增加 154%

- $PRCL: 121% increase in supply over 7 months

- $PRCL：7 个月内供应量增加 121%

- $JITO: 108% increase in supply over 2.5 months

- $JITO：2.5 个月内供应量增加 108%

- $TNSR: 96% increase in supply over 7 months

- $TNSR：7 个月内供应量增加了 96%

- $TIA: 83% increase in supply over 1.5 months

- $TIA：1.5 个月内供应量增加 83%

- $PYTH: 58% increase in supply over 8 months

- $PYTH：8 个月内供应量增加 58%

- $PORTAL: 15.7% increase in supply over 2 weeks

- $PORTAL：两周内供应量增加 15.7%

- $MAV: 14.5% increase in supply over 3 weeks

- $MAV：3 周内供应量增加 14.5%

- $ZETA: 11% increase in supply over 2 weeks

- $ZETA：两周内供应量增加 11%

This data is supplemented by Defillama, which shows the following:

Defillama 补充了该数据，显示以下内容：

- $BIGTIME: 61% increase in supply over 3 weeks

- $BIGTIME：3 周内供应量增加 61%

- $CYBER: 69% increase in supply over 1 month

- $CYBER：1 个月内供应量增加 69%

- $HOLD: 38% increase in supply over 2 months

- $HOLD：2个月内供应量增加38%

- $LVL: 19% increase in supply over 3 months

- $LVL：3 个月内供应量增加 19%

- $BB: 100% increase in supply over 7 months

- $BB：7 个月内供应量增加 100%

Another important metric to track is the daily token issuance and interest rate changes. In this regard, Messari proves to be very useful, with its daily linear interest rate change percentage being the highest.

另一个需要跟踪的重要指标是每日代币发行量和利率变化。在这方面，Messari 被证明是非常有用的，其每日线性利率变化百分比是最高的。

Significant events that will exacerbate inflation include the following:

会加剧通货膨胀的重大事件包括：

- $TIA will begin releasing in 1.5 months

- $TIA 将在 1.5 个月后开始发布

- $JITO will increase daily release amount by 8 times in 3 months

- $JITO将在3个月内将每日释放量增加8倍

- $DYM's daily release amount will increase by 3.8 times in 4.5 months

- $DYM日释放量将在4.5个月内增长3.8倍

Notable events that will reduce inflation include the following:

降低通货膨胀的重大事件包括：

- $UNI will stop new releases this week, similar to $RON and $XVS (next week)

- $UNI 将在本周停止新版本的发布，类似于 $RON 和 $XVS（下周）

- $WOO plans to reduce release amount by 75% in 1.5 months

- $WOO 计划在 1.5 个月内将释放量减少 75%

- $NEAR will reduce release amount by 38% in 1 month

- $NEAR 将在 1 个月内减少 38% 的释放量

According to data from Token Unlocks, the first week of November will see the highest new issuance amount, with $1.4 billion entering the market.

根据Token Unlocks的数据，11月第一周将出现最高的新发行量，进入市场的金额为14亿美元。

Tips for trading token cliff unlocks

交易代币悬崖解锁的技巧

Here are a few tips for trading token cliff unlocks effectively:

以下是有效交易代币悬崖解锁的一些技巧：

- Consider the overall market conditions and upcoming events. A bear market or an upcoming product launch may significantly alter how an unlock

- 考虑整体市场状况和即将发生的事件。熊市或即将推出的产品可能会显着改变解锁方式