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在过去几个月的大部分时间里,Telegram 空投主导了加密货币市场,推动了 Toncoin (TON) 网络活动的大幅增长。
Telegram airdrops have had a significant impact on the crypto market in recent months, particularly driving up activity on the Toncoin (TON) network. However, recent data shows a concerning decline in active addresses on the TON blockchain, reaching their lowest levels since April.
近几个月来,Telegram 空投对加密货币市场产生了重大影响,特别是推动了 Toncoin (TON) 网络的活动。然而,最近的数据显示 TON 区块链上的活跃地址出现令人担忧的下降,达到 4 月份以来的最低水平。
This development raises questions about the factors contributing to this sudden drop and its potential implications for Toncoin's price. Let's delve into the analysis to uncover the possible causes and their impact.
这一事态发展引发了人们对导致这种突然下跌的因素及其对 Toncoin 价格的潜在影响的疑问。让我们深入分析,找出可能的原因及其影响。
Telegram Users' Disappointment May Hinder Toncoin's Recovery
Telegram 用户的失望可能会阻碍 Toncoin 的复苏
Over the past few months, Toncoin has witnessed a surge in activity, largely driven by the launch of several Telegram airdrops. These events were highly anticipated by market participants, who hoped to reap substantial gains from the distributed tokens.
在过去的几个月里,Toncoin 的活动激增,这主要是由几次 Telegram 空投的推出推动的。这些事件受到市场参与者的高度期待,他们希望从分发的代币中获得丰厚的收益。
In August, Telegram's native meme coin, DOGS, airdropped a staggering 40 billion tokens to eligible users of the messaging app. This was followed by the September launch of Hamster Kombat, a tap-to-earn mini-app game that quickly gained popularity.
8 月,Telegram 的原生模因币 DOGS 向该消息应用程序的合格用户空投了惊人的 400 亿枚代币。随后,9 月份推出了《Hamster Kombat》,这是一款点击即可赚钱的迷你应用游戏,很快就广受欢迎。
However, user reactions to both events revealed widespread dissatisfaction with the value of the airdropped tokens. Despite the hype surrounding the Token Generation Event (TGE), many recipients expressed disappointment with the meager worth of the tokens distributed.
然而,用户对这两起事件的反应表明,人们对空投代币的价值普遍不满。尽管围绕代币生成活动(TGE)进行了大肆宣传,但许多接收者对所分发的代币的微薄价值表示失望。
This sentiment likely played a role in the decline of engagement with Toncoin. Furthermore, data from IntoTheBlock highlighted a decrease in the number of short-term holders.
这种情绪可能是导致 Toncoin 参与度下降的原因之一。此外,IntoTheBlock 的数据突显出短期持有者数量的减少。
In the lead-up to the August and September airdrops, TON experienced a massive increase in the number of short-term holders. This development fueled speculation that the TON’s price could return to $7. However, the shifting sentiment might have put that prediction to rest, as a shortage of demand might negatively affect the cryptocurrency’s value.
在 8 月和 9 月空投之前,TON 的短期持有者数量大幅增加。这一进展引发了人们对 TON 价格可能回到 7 美元的猜测。然而,情绪的转变可能会让这一预测落空,因为需求短缺可能会对加密货币的价值产生负面影响。
Selling Pressure Could Drive Toncoin Price Down to $4
抛售压力可能导致 Toncoin 价格跌至 4 美元
At the time of writing, Toncoin's price is $5.18, and an analysis of the daily chart reveals that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained in the negative territory since September 28.
截至撰写本文时,Toncoin 的价格为 5.18 美元,日线图分析显示,Chaikin 资金流 (CMF) 自 9 月 28 日以来一直处于负值区域。
The CMF is a technical indicator used to gauge the buying and selling pressure of a security. It essentially helps distinguish between periods of accumulation (when investors are actively buying) and distribution (when investors are selling or reducing their positions).
CMF 是一种用于衡量证券买卖压力的技术指标。它本质上有助于区分积累时期(当投资者积极买入时)和分配时期(当投资者卖出或减少头寸时)。
When the CMF is above the zero line, it suggests that there is net accumulation, meaning the asset is experiencing more buying than selling pressure. This can be interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating that investors are confident in the security's prospects.
当 CMF 高于零线时,表明存在净积累,这意味着资产正在经历更多的买盘压力而不是卖盘压力。这可以解释为看涨信号,表明投资者对该证券的前景充满信心。
Conversely, when the indicator is below the zero line, it signals net distribution, implying increased selling pressure and a potential bearish outlook for the asset.
相反,当该指标低于零线时,则表示净分布,意味着抛售压力增加以及该资产的潜在看跌前景。
With the CMF currently positioned in the negative zone, it could indicate a period of selling pressure. This may lead to a decline in Toncoin's price, potentially reaching $4.46.
由于 CMF 目前处于负值区域,这可能预示着一段时期的抛售压力。这可能会导致 Toncoin 的价格下跌,可能跌至 4.46 美元。
However, if the upcoming Telegram airdrops slated for October manage to introduce valuable tokens, this prediction could be overturned. In such a scenario, demand for TON might increase, driving up the price and possibly reaching $6.20.
然而,如果即将于 10 月进行的 Telegram 空投能够引入有价值的代币,那么这一预测可能会被推翻。在这种情况下,对 TON 的需求可能会增加,从而推高价格并可能达到 6.20 美元。
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