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在過去幾個月的大部分時間裡,Telegram 空投主導了加密貨幣市場,推動了 Toncoin (TON) 網路活動的大幅成長。
Telegram airdrops have had a significant impact on the crypto market in recent months, particularly driving up activity on the Toncoin (TON) network. However, recent data shows a concerning decline in active addresses on the TON blockchain, reaching their lowest levels since April.
近幾個月來,Telegram 空投對加密貨幣市場產生了重大影響,特別是推動了 Toncoin (TON) 網路的活動。然而,最近的數據顯示 TON 區塊鏈上的活躍地址出現令人擔憂的下降,達到 4 月以來的最低水準。
This development raises questions about the factors contributing to this sudden drop and its potential implications for Toncoin's price. Let's delve into the analysis to uncover the possible causes and their impact.
這一事態發展引發了人們對導致這種突然下跌的因素及其對 Toncoin 價格的潛在影響的疑問。讓我們深入分析,找出可能的原因及其影響。
Telegram Users' Disappointment May Hinder Toncoin's Recovery
Telegram 用戶的失望可能會阻礙 Toncoin 的復甦
Over the past few months, Toncoin has witnessed a surge in activity, largely driven by the launch of several Telegram airdrops. These events were highly anticipated by market participants, who hoped to reap substantial gains from the distributed tokens.
在過去的幾個月裡,Toncoin 的活動激增,這主要是由幾次 Telegram 空投的推出所推動的。這些事件受到市場參與者的高度期待,他們希望從分發的代幣中獲得豐厚的收益。
In August, Telegram's native meme coin, DOGS, airdropped a staggering 40 billion tokens to eligible users of the messaging app. This was followed by the September launch of Hamster Kombat, a tap-to-earn mini-app game that quickly gained popularity.
8 月,Telegram 的原生模因幣 DOGS 向該訊息應用程式的合格用戶空投了驚人的 400 億枚代幣。隨後,9 月推出了《Hamster Kombat》,這是一款點擊即可賺錢的迷你應用程式遊戲,很快就廣受歡迎。
However, user reactions to both events revealed widespread dissatisfaction with the value of the airdropped tokens. Despite the hype surrounding the Token Generation Event (TGE), many recipients expressed disappointment with the meager worth of the tokens distributed.
然而,用戶對這兩起事件的反應表明,人們對空投代幣的價值普遍不滿。儘管圍繞著代幣生成活動(TGE)進行了大肆宣傳,但許多接收者對所分發的代幣的微薄價值表示失望。
This sentiment likely played a role in the decline of engagement with Toncoin. Furthermore, data from IntoTheBlock highlighted a decrease in the number of short-term holders.
這種情緒可能是 Toncoin 參與度下降的原因之一。此外,IntoTheBlock 的數據突顯出短期持有者數量的減少。
In the lead-up to the August and September airdrops, TON experienced a massive increase in the number of short-term holders. This development fueled speculation that the TON’s price could return to $7. However, the shifting sentiment might have put that prediction to rest, as a shortage of demand might negatively affect the cryptocurrency’s value.
在 8 月和 9 月空投之前,TON 的短期持有者數量大幅增加。這一進展引發了人們對 TON 價格可能回到 7 美元的猜測。然而,情緒的轉變可能會讓這項預測落空,因為需求短缺可能會對加密貨幣的價值產生負面影響。
Selling Pressure Could Drive Toncoin Price Down to $4
拋售壓力可能導致 Toncoin 價格跌至 4 美元
At the time of writing, Toncoin's price is $5.18, and an analysis of the daily chart reveals that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained in the negative territory since September 28.
截至撰寫本文時,Toncoin 的價格為 5.18 美元,日線圖分析顯示,Chaikin 資金流 (CMF) 自 9 月 28 日以來一直處於負值區域。
The CMF is a technical indicator used to gauge the buying and selling pressure of a security. It essentially helps distinguish between periods of accumulation (when investors are actively buying) and distribution (when investors are selling or reducing their positions).
CMF 是一種用於衡量證券買賣壓力的技術指標。它本質上有助於區分累積時期(當投資者積極買入時)和分配時期(當投資者賣出或減少頭寸時)。
When the CMF is above the zero line, it suggests that there is net accumulation, meaning the asset is experiencing more buying than selling pressure. This can be interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating that investors are confident in the security's prospects.
當 CMF 高於零線時,表示存在淨積累,這意味著資產正在經歷更多的買盤壓力而不是賣盤壓力。這可以解釋為看漲訊號,顯示投資者對該證券的前景充滿信心。
Conversely, when the indicator is below the zero line, it signals net distribution, implying increased selling pressure and a potential bearish outlook for the asset.
相反,當該指標低於零線時,則表示淨分佈,意味著拋售壓力增加以及該資產的潛在看跌前景。
With the CMF currently positioned in the negative zone, it could indicate a period of selling pressure. This may lead to a decline in Toncoin's price, potentially reaching $4.46.
由於 CMF 目前處於負值區域,這可能預示著一段時期的拋售壓力。這可能會導致 Toncoin 的價格下跌,可能跌至 4.46 美元。
However, if the upcoming Telegram airdrops slated for October manage to introduce valuable tokens, this prediction could be overturned. In such a scenario, demand for TON might increase, driving up the price and possibly reaching $6.20.
然而,如果即將於 10 月進行的 Telegram 空投能夠引入有價值的代幣,那麼這項預測可能會被推翻。在這種情況下,對 TON 的需求可能會增加,從而推高價格並可能達到 6.20 美元。
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