Telegram Users’ Disappointment Casts Doubt on Toncoin’s (TON) Recovery

For most of the past few months, Telegram airdrops dominated the crypto market, fueling massive growth in Toncoin (TON) network activity.

Telegram airdrops have had a significant impact on the crypto market in recent months, particularly driving up activity on the Toncoin (TON) network. However, recent data shows a concerning decline in active addresses on the TON blockchain, reaching their lowest levels since April.

This development raises questions about the factors contributing to this sudden drop and its potential implications for Toncoin's price. Let's delve into the analysis to uncover the possible causes and their impact.

Telegram Users' Disappointment May Hinder Toncoin's Recovery

Over the past few months, Toncoin has witnessed a surge in activity, largely driven by the launch of several Telegram airdrops. These events were highly anticipated by market participants, who hoped to reap substantial gains from the distributed tokens.

In August, Telegram's native meme coin, DOGS, airdropped a staggering 40 billion tokens to eligible users of the messaging app. This was followed by the September launch of Hamster Kombat, a tap-to-earn mini-app game that quickly gained popularity.

However, user reactions to both events revealed widespread dissatisfaction with the value of the airdropped tokens. Despite the hype surrounding the Token Generation Event (TGE), many recipients expressed disappointment with the meager worth of the tokens distributed.

This sentiment likely played a role in the decline of engagement with Toncoin. Furthermore, data from IntoTheBlock highlighted a decrease in the number of short-term holders.

In the lead-up to the August and September airdrops, TON experienced a massive increase in the number of short-term holders. This development fueled speculation that the TON’s price could return to $7. However, the shifting sentiment might have put that prediction to rest, as a shortage of demand might negatively affect the cryptocurrency’s value.

Selling Pressure Could Drive Toncoin Price Down to $4

At the time of writing, Toncoin's price is $5.18, and an analysis of the daily chart reveals that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained in the negative territory since September 28.

The CMF is a technical indicator used to gauge the buying and selling pressure of a security. It essentially helps distinguish between periods of accumulation (when investors are actively buying) and distribution (when investors are selling or reducing their positions).

When the CMF is above the zero line, it suggests that there is net accumulation, meaning the asset is experiencing more buying than selling pressure. This can be interpreted as a bullish signal, indicating that investors are confident in the security's prospects.

Conversely, when the indicator is below the zero line, it signals net distribution, implying increased selling pressure and a potential bearish outlook for the asset.

With the CMF currently positioned in the negative zone, it could indicate a period of selling pressure. This may lead to a decline in Toncoin's price, potentially reaching $4.46.

However, if the upcoming Telegram airdrops slated for October manage to introduce valuable tokens, this prediction could be overturned. In such a scenario, demand for TON might increase, driving up the price and possibly reaching $6.20.