Swarms (SWM) 代币分析：解读人工智能代理的市场动态

AI Agents已经成为链上交易的热门话题，短短一个月的时间MEME领域就不断出现新的细分领域，从ai16z到Virtual，再到Swarms。

Recently, a new batch of MEME tokens have emerged in the on-chain trading field, quickly becoming a hot topic. In just a month, new subdivisions have appeared in the AI Agent field, from ai16z to Virtual and then to Swarms. As various AI Agent tokens continue to emerge, which ones will break through the competition, and which are just fleeting concepts? There may be multiple angles to consider, but the flow of funds on-chain and changes in major players may still be the most important indicators.

近期，链上交易领域涌现出一批新的MEME代币，迅速成为热门话题。短短一个月的时间，AI Agent领域就出现了新的细分领域，从ai16z到Virtual，再到Swarms。随着各种AI Agent代币的不断涌现，哪些将在竞争中脱颖而出，哪些只是昙花一现的概念？可能有多个角度需要考虑，但链上资金流向和主要参与者的变化可能仍然是最重要的指标。

PANews takes the recently popular Swarms token as the main object of analysis, comparing it with six high-market-cap AI Agent tokens' major addresses, attempting to "carve a boat to seek a sword" once again, to glimpse some secrets. The data range for this analysis includes: the initial purchase and sale conditions of the top 1000 holding addresses of Swarms tokens (data time cut off at January 6, 2025, 24:00), and the address overlap situation of six AI-related tokens with a market cap exceeding 100 million USD, including Fartcoin, GRIFFAIN, ZEREBRO, ai16z, arc, and Swarms (data time cut off at January 7, 2025, 14:00), as well as analysis of internal trading records.

PANews以最近火爆的Swarms代币为主要分析对象，将其与六种高市值AI Agent代币的主要地址进行对比，试图再次“刻舟求剑”，窥探一些秘密。本次分析的数据范围包括：Swarms 代币前 1000 个持有地址的初始买卖情况（数据时间截止于 2025 年 1 月 6 日 24:00），以及 6 个 AI 相关代币的地址重叠情况市值超过1亿美元，包括Fartcoin、GRIFFAIN、ZEREBRO、ai16z、arc、Swarms（数据时间截至1月7日， 2025年14:00），以及内部交易记录分析。

Some quietly lay the groundwork at low prices, while others follow the trend to enter

有的悄然低价埋伏，有的则跟风入场

First, looking at the timeline of when major players entered the market, most of them started entering after January 2, which was 12 days after the token was created. From a timing perspective, many major players in Swarms began buying only after the Swarms ecosystem started to heat up, failing to complete early positioning.

首先，从主要参与者进入市场的时间来看，大多数参与者是在 1 月 2 日之后开始进入市场的，即代币创建后的 12 天。从时机上看，Swarms的许多主要参与者是在Swarms生态开始升温后才开始买入的，未能完成早期定位。

However, from the price curve of Swarms, if purchased before December 27, the price could basically be maintained below 0.02 USD, with nearly a 30-fold increase from the current highest price of 0.6 USD. Analyzing the initial purchase prices of these addresses, 202 addresses bought in the price range of 0.01 to 0.05 USD, while the highest number of addresses bought in the range of 0.3 to 0.4 USD.

但从Swarms的价格曲线来看，如果在12月27日之前购买，价格基本可以维持在0.02美元以下，较目前最高价0.6美元上涨近30倍。分析这些地址的初始购买价格，有 202 个地址的购买价格在 0.01 至 0.05 美元之间，最高数量的地址在 0.3 至 0.4 美元之间购买。

The distribution of these two data points means that early investors in Swarms bought in batches at low prices during the period of price collapse, and this buying was relatively dispersed, not concentrated in a single time period. The benefit of this is that they could acquire chips at a lower price. Another group of major players began to enter significantly after the discussion around Swarms heated up, but their holding prices do not have much competitive advantage.

这两个数据点的分布意味着Swarms的早期投资者在价格暴跌期间低价批量买入，而且这种买入是相对分散的，而不是集中在单一时间段。这样做的好处是他们可以以较低的价格获得芯片。在围绕Swarms的讨论升温后，另一批主要参与者开始大幅入场，但他们的持股价格并没有太大的竞争优势。

This distribution of chips may explain why the Swarms market appears to have significant short-term fluctuations. If early ambushers sell at high points, new major players have higher costs, and once a large sell-off occurs, it is easier to trigger sensitive nerves on both sides, leading to a sharp drop.

这种筹码分布或许可以解释为什么 Swarms 市场出现显着的短期波动。如果早期埋伏者在高点抛售，新的主要参与者成本更高，一旦出现大面积抛售，更容易触发双方敏感神经，导致大幅下跌。

However, looking at the chip distribution, the main chips of Swarms are relatively dispersed. In the analysis of the top 1000 holding addresses, there are not many tokens sourced from the same address, and most addresses' initial token sources are mainly from on-chain exchanges. Therefore, there is little evidence of early major players acquiring large amounts of chips and then dispersing them to multiple addresses.

但从筹码分布来看，Swarms的主要筹码相对分散。在前1000个持仓地址分析中，来自同一地址的代币并不多，且大部分地址的初始代币来源主要来自链上交易所。因此，几乎没有证据表明早期主要参与者获得了大量筹码，然后将其分散到多个地址。

Additionally, by comparing internal trading addresses, it was found that addresses that purchased on the internal market did not appear among the current top 1000 holding addresses. Therefore, the early chips of this token have basically completed their rotation.

另外，通过对比内部交易地址发现，目前持有量前1000的地址中并没有出现在内部市场购买的地址。因此，该代币的早期筹码已基本完成轮换。

From the overall data, the average initial purchase price of Swarms tokens is 0.17 USD, and the average initial selling price is 0.23 USD, with the average initial purchase amount per address reaching 37,600 USD and the average initial selling amount about 28,200 USD. Comparing the buying and selling situation of individual addresses, the average initial selling price of these addresses is about 2.43 times the buying price.

从整体数据来看，Swarms代币的平均初始购买价格为0.17美元，平均初始销售价格为0.23美元，每个地址的平均初始购买金额达到37,600美元，平均初始销售金额约为28,200美元。对比个别地址的买卖情况，这些地址的平均初始卖出价约为买入价的2.43倍。

The highest major holder has made 25 million USD profit without selling

最高大股东不抛售获利2500万美元

Compared to other MEME tokens, the average initial purchase amount mentioned above is significantly higher, mainly due to the influence of some major addresses. The address with the highest initial transfer amount is Dsjzh2oj3HxyPefjQr5qqvbR5NrMnvBgptGLSQ3t8T5i, which transferred about 4.13 million USD from another address on December 31, followed by several transfers totaling about 500,000 USD, with the current holding value at 27.33 million USD.

与其他MEME代币相比，上述平均初始购买金额明显较高，主要是受到一些主要地址的影响。初始转账金额最高的地址为Dsjzh2oj3HxyPefjQr5qqvbR5NrMnvBgptGLSQ3t8T5i，该地址于12月31日从另一个地址转账约413万美元，随后又多次转账，总计约50万美元，目前持有价值为2733万美元。

The address it transferred from, 5HfrnyodRraAw63aRVPueD5Er4D

它传输的地址，5HfrnyodRraAw63aRVPueD5Er4D