Swarms (SWM) 代幣分析：解讀人工智慧代理的市場動態

AI Agents已經成為鏈上交易的熱門話題，短短一個月的時間MEME領域就不斷出現新的細分領域，從ai16z到Virtual，再到Swarms。

Recently, a new batch of MEME tokens have emerged in the on-chain trading field, quickly becoming a hot topic. In just a month, new subdivisions have appeared in the AI Agent field, from ai16z to Virtual and then to Swarms. As various AI Agent tokens continue to emerge, which ones will break through the competition, and which are just fleeting concepts? There may be multiple angles to consider, but the flow of funds on-chain and changes in major players may still be the most important indicators.

近期，鏈上交易領域湧現一批新的MEME代幣，迅速成為熱門話題。短短一個月的時間，AI Agent領域出現了新的細分領域，從ai16z到Virtual，再到Swarms。隨著各種AI Agent代幣的不斷湧現，哪些將在競爭中脫穎而出，哪些只是曇花一現的概念？可能有多個角度需要考慮，但鏈上資金流向和主要參與者的變化可能仍然是最重要的指標。

PANews takes the recently popular Swarms token as the main object of analysis, comparing it with six high-market-cap AI Agent tokens' major addresses, attempting to "carve a boat to seek a sword" once again, to glimpse some secrets. The data range for this analysis includes: the initial purchase and sale conditions of the top 1000 holding addresses of Swarms tokens (data time cut off at January 6, 2025, 24:00), and the address overlap situation of six AI-related tokens with a market cap exceeding 100 million USD, including Fartcoin, GRIFFAIN, ZEREBRO, ai16z, arc, and Swarms (data time cut off at January 7, 2025, 14:00), as well as analysis of internal trading records.

PANews以最近火爆的Swarms代幣為主要分析對象，將其與六種高市值AI Agent代幣的主要地址進行對比，試圖再次“刻舟求劍”，窺探一些秘密。本分析的數據範圍包括：Swarms 代幣前 1000 個持有地址的初始買賣情況（數據時間截止於 2025 年 1 月 6 日 24:00），以及 6 個 AI 相關代幣的地址重疊情況市值超過1億美元的包括Fartcoin、GRIFFAIN、ZEREBRO、ai16z、arc、Swarms（數據時間截止於2025年1月7日14:00），以及內部交易記錄分析。

Some quietly lay the groundwork at low prices, while others follow the trend to enter

有的悄悄低價埋伏，有的則跟風入場

First, looking at the timeline of when major players entered the market, most of them started entering after January 2, which was 12 days after the token was created. From a timing perspective, many major players in Swarms began buying only after the Swarms ecosystem started to heat up, failing to complete early positioning.

首先，從主要參與者進入市場的時間來看，大多數參與者是在 1 月 2 日之後開始進入市場的，即代幣創建後的 12 天。從時機上看，Swarms的許多主要參與者是在Swarms生態開始升溫後才開始買入的，未能完成早期定位。

However, from the price curve of Swarms, if purchased before December 27, the price could basically be maintained below 0.02 USD, with nearly a 30-fold increase from the current highest price of 0.6 USD. Analyzing the initial purchase prices of these addresses, 202 addresses bought in the price range of 0.01 to 0.05 USD, while the highest number of addresses bought in the range of 0.3 to 0.4 USD.

但從Swarms的價格曲線來看，如果在12月27日之前購買，價格基本上可以維持在0.02美元以下，較目前最高價0.6美元上漲近30倍。分析這些地址的初始購買價格，有 202 個地址的購買價格在 0.01 至 0.05 美元之間，最高數量的地址在 0.3 至 0.4 美元之間購買。

The distribution of these two data points means that early investors in Swarms bought in batches at low prices during the period of price collapse, and this buying was relatively dispersed, not concentrated in a single time period. The benefit of this is that they could acquire chips at a lower price. Another group of major players began to enter significantly after the discussion around Swarms heated up, but their holding prices do not have much competitive advantage.

這兩個數據點的分佈意味著Swarms的早期投資者在價格暴跌期間低價批量買入，而且這種買入是相對分散的，而不是集中在單一時間段。這樣做的好處是他們可以以較低的價格獲得晶片。在圍繞Swarms的討論升溫後，另一批主要參與者開始大幅入場，但他們的持股價格並沒有太大的競爭優勢。

This distribution of chips may explain why the Swarms market appears to have significant short-term fluctuations. If early ambushers sell at high points, new major players have higher costs, and once a large sell-off occurs, it is easier to trigger sensitive nerves on both sides, leading to a sharp drop.

這種籌碼分佈或許可以解釋為什麼 Swarms 市場會出現顯著的短期波動。如果早期埋伏者在高點拋售，新的主力玩家成本較高，一旦出現大面積拋售，更容易觸發雙方敏感神經，導致股價大幅下跌。

However, looking at the chip distribution, the main chips of Swarms are relatively dispersed. In the analysis of the top 1000 holding addresses, there are not many tokens sourced from the same address, and most addresses' initial token sources are mainly from on-chain exchanges. Therefore, there is little evidence of early major players acquiring large amounts of chips and then dispersing them to multiple addresses.

但從籌碼分佈來看，Swarms的主要籌碼相對分散。在前1000個持倉地址分析中，來自同一地址的代幣並不多，且大部分地址的初始代幣來源主要來自鏈上交易所。因此，幾乎沒有證據表明早期主要參與者獲得了大量籌碼，然後將其分散到多個地址。

Additionally, by comparing internal trading addresses, it was found that addresses that purchased on the internal market did not appear among the current top 1000 holding addresses. Therefore, the early chips of this token have basically completed their rotation.

另外，透過比較內部交易地址發現，目前持有量前1000的地址中並沒有出現在內部市場購買的地址。因此，該代幣的早期籌碼已基本完成輪換。

From the overall data, the average initial purchase price of Swarms tokens is 0.17 USD, and the average initial selling price is 0.23 USD, with the average initial purchase amount per address reaching 37,600 USD and the average initial selling amount about 28,200 USD. Comparing the buying and selling situation of individual addresses, the average initial selling price of these addresses is about 2.43 times the buying price.

從整體數據來看，Swarms代幣的平均初始購買價格為0.17美元，平均初始銷售價格為0.23美元，每個地址的平均初始購買金額為37,600美元，平均初始銷售金額約為28,200美元。對比個別地址的買賣情況，這些地址的平均初始賣出價約為買入價的2.43倍。

The highest major holder has made 25 million USD profit without selling

最高大股東不拋售獲利2500萬美元

Compared to other MEME tokens, the average initial purchase amount mentioned above is significantly higher, mainly due to the influence of some major addresses. The address with the highest initial transfer amount is Dsjzh2oj3HxyPefjQr5qqvbR5NrMnvBgptGLSQ3t8T5i, which transferred about 4.13 million USD from another address on December 31, followed by several transfers totaling about 500,000 USD, with the current holding value at 27.33 million USD.

與其他MEME代幣相比，上述平均初始購買金額明顯較高，主要是受到一些主要地址的影響。初始轉帳金額最高的地址為Dsjzh2oj3HxyPefjQr5qqvbR5NrMnvBgptGLSQ3t8T5i，該地址於12月31日從另一個地址轉帳約413萬美元，隨後又多次轉賬，總計約50萬美元，目前持有價值萬美元。

The address it transferred from, 5HfrnyodRraAw63aRVPueD5Er4D

它傳輸的位址，5HfrnyodRraAw63aRVPueD5Er4D