苏纳克押注卢旺达协议以重振选举前景

里希·苏纳克的潜在选举口号是“我们将停止船只，工党将停止航班”，反映出他在预期的秋季选举之前专注于实施卢旺达驱逐政策。尽管遭到批评者的怀疑，苏纳克仍计划增加航班频率，以阻止穿越英吉利海峡并减少进入英国的非法移民数量。该政策是否成功尚不确定，但苏纳克的目标是阻止 2023 年乘小船横渡英吉利海峡的 3 万人中的很大一部分。

Rishi Sunak Gambles on Rwanda Deportation Deal to Salvage Election Prospects

里希·苏纳克（Rishi Sunak）赌上卢旺达驱逐协议以挽救选举前景

In a bold attempt to revive his flagging political fortunes, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has hinted at making "We'll stop the boats, Labour will stop the flights" his election slogan. This audacious strategy hinges on the successful implementation of the controversial Rwanda deportation deal, which has faced widespread criticism and legal challenges.

为了重振其萎靡不振的政治命运，总理苏纳克暗示将“我们将停止船只，工党将停止航班”作为他的竞选口号。这一大胆的战略取决于有争议的卢旺达驱逐协议的成功实施，该协议面临着广泛的批评和法律挑战。

During a surprise Downing Street press conference on Monday, Sunak declared that the scheme would be fully operational with multiple flights departing monthly before the anticipated autumn election. This marked a departure from his previous plan of a symbolic "proof of concept" flight ahead of a snap poll.

在周一出人意料的唐宁街新闻发布会上，苏纳克宣布该计划将全面实施，在预期的秋季选举之前每月有多个航班出发。这标志着他与之前在提前民意调查之前进行象征性“概念验证”飞行的计划背道而驰。

Sunak's shift in approach suggests he believes that voters' skepticism about the policy's feasibility and effectiveness necessitates a visible and significant impact on Channel crossings. He aims to demonstrate that the Rwanda deal can deter such crossings and reduce the number of migrants arriving in the UK by small boats, which reached 30,000 in 2023.

苏纳克态度的转变表明，他认为选民对该政策的可行性和有效性的怀疑使得有必要对该政策产生明显而重大的影响。他的目的是证明卢旺达协议可以阻止此类过境行为，并减少乘小船抵达英国的移民人数（2023 年这一数字达到 30,000 人）。

However, this strategy carries significant risks. Tory rebels remain unconvinced that the current "Safety of Rwanda Bill" is sufficiently robust to achieve more than a handful of token flights. They have set a target for Sunak to meet the Home Office's best-case scenario of 2,000 deportations within six months for the policy to be considered effective.

然而，这一策略存在重大风险。保守党叛军仍然不相信当前的“卢旺达安全法案”是否足以实现多次象征性的飞行。他们为苏纳克设定了一个目标，即在六个月内驱逐 2,000 人，这样政策才能被认为是有效的。

Immigration enforcement officials believe this target is achievable, but it would require weekly flights operating at capacity. Additionally, it remains uncertain when the scheme will have a deterrent effect, if at all.

移民执法官员相信这一目标是可以实现的，但需要每周都有航班满负荷运行。此外，该计划何时会产生威慑作用（如果有的话）仍不确定。

Nonetheless, Sunak believes that proving such an effect would pose a major challenge to the Labour Party, which has pledged to scrap the Rwanda deal if elected. The Prime Minister acknowledges that the success of his gamble hinges on the scheme's ability to deliver tangible results.

尽管如此，苏纳克认为，证明这种效果将对工党构成重大挑战，该党已承诺如果当选将废除卢旺达协议。总理承认，他的赌博能否成功取决于该计划能否取得切实成果。

If Sunak succeeds in establishing a deterrent effect, it could boost his credibility and provide a potent campaign message to counter Labour's opposition to the Rwanda policy. However, if the scheme fails to meet expectations, it could further damage his reputation and weaken his position ahead of the election.

如果苏纳克成功地建立起威慑作用，就可以提高他的可信度，并提供强有力的竞选信息来反击工党对卢旺达政策的反对。然而，如果该计划未能达到预期，可能会进一步损害他的声誉并削弱他在选举前的地位。

As the political landscape remains fluid and unpredictable, Sunak's gamble on the Rwanda deportation deal is a bold but potentially risky move that could have far-reaching consequences for his political future and the UK's immigration policy.

由于政治格局仍然不稳定且不可预测，苏纳克在卢旺达驱逐协议上的赌博是一个大胆但潜在风险的举动，可能会对他的政治前途和英国的移民政策产生深远的影响。