Rishi Sunak's potential electoral slogan, "We’ll stop the boats, Labour will stop the flights," reflects his focus on implementing the Rwanda deportation policy before the anticipated autumn election. Despite skepticism from detractors, Sunak plans to increase the frequency of flights to deter Channel crossings and reduce the number of illegal immigrants entering the UK. The success of the policy is uncertain, but Sunak's goal is to deter a significant portion of the 30,000 individuals who crossed the Channel in small boats in 2023.
Rishi Sunak Gambles on Rwanda Deportation Deal to Salvage Election Prospects
In a bold attempt to revive his flagging political fortunes, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has hinted at making "We'll stop the boats, Labour will stop the flights" his election slogan. This audacious strategy hinges on the successful implementation of the controversial Rwanda deportation deal, which has faced widespread criticism and legal challenges.
During a surprise Downing Street press conference on Monday, Sunak declared that the scheme would be fully operational with multiple flights departing monthly before the anticipated autumn election. This marked a departure from his previous plan of a symbolic "proof of concept" flight ahead of a snap poll.
Sunak's shift in approach suggests he believes that voters' skepticism about the policy's feasibility and effectiveness necessitates a visible and significant impact on Channel crossings. He aims to demonstrate that the Rwanda deal can deter such crossings and reduce the number of migrants arriving in the UK by small boats, which reached 30,000 in 2023.
However, this strategy carries significant risks. Tory rebels remain unconvinced that the current "Safety of Rwanda Bill" is sufficiently robust to achieve more than a handful of token flights. They have set a target for Sunak to meet the Home Office's best-case scenario of 2,000 deportations within six months for the policy to be considered effective.
Immigration enforcement officials believe this target is achievable, but it would require weekly flights operating at capacity. Additionally, it remains uncertain when the scheme will have a deterrent effect, if at all.
Nonetheless, Sunak believes that proving such an effect would pose a major challenge to the Labour Party, which has pledged to scrap the Rwanda deal if elected. The Prime Minister acknowledges that the success of his gamble hinges on the scheme's ability to deliver tangible results.
If Sunak succeeds in establishing a deterrent effect, it could boost his credibility and provide a potent campaign message to counter Labour's opposition to the Rwanda policy. However, if the scheme fails to meet expectations, it could further damage his reputation and weaken his position ahead of the election.
As the political landscape remains fluid and unpredictable, Sunak's gamble on the Rwanda deportation deal is a bold but potentially risky move that could have far-reaching consequences for his political future and the UK's immigration policy.