2024-2025 年 XRP 价格预测：为什么 XRP 现在下跌？

随着比特币 (BTC) 跌至 11 月底以来的最低水平，加密货币市场传统年底飙升的希望正在破灭

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $92,442 on December 24, a 14.5% decline from its all-time peak of $108,000 reached just a week ago.

12 月 24 日，比特币 (BTC) 价格跌至 92,442 美元，较一周前达到的历史峰值 108,000 美元下跌了 14.5%。

The leading token briefly attempted to recover above $95,000 before settling around $94,000 in early trading, still maintaining an 11% loss over the past week.

领先的代币一度试图恢复至 95,000 美元以上，然后在早盘交易中稳定在 94,000 美元左右，但过去一周仍保持 11% 的跌幅。

At the same time, XRP is currently trading at $2.23, down nearly 14% over the past seven days. The 24-hour low stands at $2.1298, testing the current local support level.

与此同时，XRP 目前交易价格为 2.23 美元，过去 7 天下跌近 14%。 24小时低点为2.1298美元，测试当前的本地支撑位。

XRP's 24-hour trading volume stands at $11.09 billion, indicating significant market participation despite persistent selling pressure. The token faces critical support at $2.17, with technical indicators showing mixed signals for potential recovery.

XRP 的 24 小时交易量为 110.9 亿美元，表明尽管抛售压力持续存在，但市场参与度很高。该代币面临 2.17 美元的关键支撑，技术指标显示出潜在复苏的混合信号。

This decline comes at a time when crypto markets traditionally experience what traders call a "Santa Claus rally" – a period of price appreciation during the final days of December and early January.

这种下跌发生之际，加密货币市场传统上会经历交易者所说的“圣诞老人反弹”，即 12 月最后几天和 1 月初价格上涨的时期。

Historical data shows that crypto markets have demonstrated positive performance during the holiday season in previous bull markets. Analysis reveals that between 2014 and 2023, the crypto market experienced holiday rallies in eight out of ten instances, with gains ranging from 0.7% to 11.8%.

历史数据显示，加密货币市场在历次牛市中的假期期间都表现出了积极的表现。分析显示，2014 年至 2023 年间，加密货币市场十有八九都经历了假期上涨，涨幅从 0.7% 到 11.8% 不等。

A significant market event looms on December 27, with approximately $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts set to expire, potentially introducing additional market volatility. Despite the current downturn, market sentiment indicators suggest a possible recovery, as Bitcoin's social sentiment reached its yearly low on December 22.

12 月 27 日，一场重大市场事件即将来临，价值约 180 亿美元的比特币和以太坊期权合约即将到期，可能会带来额外的市场波动。尽管当前经济低迷，但市场情绪指标表明可能会复苏，因为比特币的社会情绪于 12 月 22 日触及年度低点。

The cryptocurrency's sharp descent began following the Federal Reserve's December 18 policy meeting. While the Fed reduced its benchmark rate to 4.25%–4.5%, Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish tone caught investors off guard. The Fed's projection of only two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, down from the previously expected four, has tightened global liquidity conditions.

美联储 12 月 18 日政策会议后，加密货币开始急剧下跌。尽管美联储将基准利率下调至4.25%–4.5%，但主席鲍威尔的鹰派语气让投资者措手不及。美联储预计 2025 年仅降息两次，低于此前预期的四次，这导致全球流动性状况收紧。

The U.S. Dollar Index's surge to 108.15, its highest level in months, has further pressured cryptocurrency valuations. This strengthening dollar has made speculative assets less attractive to investors, contributing to XRP's downward trajectory.

美元指数飙升至数月来最高水平108.15，进一步令加密货币估值承压。美元走强降低了投机资产对投资者的吸引力，导致 XRP 下跌。

The current market structure shows XRP trading below key support levels, with immediate resistance at $2.49. The daily chart maintains a bullish long-term outlook, with technical patterns suggesting potential for higher prices if market conditions improve.

当前的市场结构显示 XRP 交易低于关键支撑位，直接阻力位为 2.49 美元。日线图维持看涨的长期前景，技术模式表明，如果市场状况改善，价格可能会上涨。

Looking at the XRP chart below, we observe a flag pattern within which the current price correction is moving. The chart has paused around the $2.20 support level. Even if this level is breached, the next support levels are the psychological $2.00, followed by $1.89, and then the 50 EMA at $1.82. A drop below this zone would indicate to me that the flag pattern has been invalidated, and bears might start to dominate the XRP chart.

看看下面的 XRP 图表，我们观察到当前价格修正正在其中移动的旗形模式。该图表已在 2.20 美元支撑位附近徘徊。即使该水平被突破，下一个支撑位是 2.00 美元的心理支撑位，然后是 1.89 美元，然后是 1.82 美元的 50 EMA。跌破该区域将表明旗形模式已失效，空头可能开始主导 XRP 图表。

Above these levels, however, downward corrections should be seen as opportunities to accumulate XRP at more attractive prices.

然而，高于这些水平，向下修正应被视为以更具吸引力的价格积累 XRP 的机会。

Resistance levels, on the other hand, are currently at $2.49, $2.71 (the highs from December 17), and $2.91 (this year’s peaks).

另一方面，目前的阻力位为 2.49 美元、2.71 美元（12 月 17 日以来的高点）和 2.91 美元（今年的峰值）。

The minimum expected price for XRP in December 2024 is projected at $1.91, with a maximum potential of $2.56. Market analysts anticipate an average trading price of $2.24 during this period.

2024 年 12 月 XRP 的最低预期价格预计为 1.91 美元，最高潜力为 2.56 美元。市场分析师预计这一时期的平均交易价格为 2.24 美元。

This complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, market sentiment, and technical indicators will likely continue to influence XRP's price trajectory through 2024 and beyond. While short-term pressures persist, long-term projections remain cautiously optimistic, though investors should maintain awareness of the market's inherent volatility and risk factors.

宏观经济因素、市场情绪和技术指标之间复杂的相互作用可能会继续影响 2024 年及以后 XRP 的价格轨迹。尽管短期压力持续存在，但长期预测仍保持谨慎乐观，但投资者应保持对市场固有波动性和风险因素的认识。